Delta Phenomenon

This is a discussion on Delta Phenomenon within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; Nice thread you folks have here. I don't know much about Delta but this thread does make for VERY interesting ...

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Old May 22, 2009, 2:20pm   #17
 
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Nice thread you folks have here.
I don't know much about Delta but this thread does make for VERY interesting reading.
Also, if it's any help one of my mid-term timing models shows a pivot in the gbp-usd should happen right about now.
Please keep it up!!
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Old May 22, 2009, 10:52pm   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hwsteele View Post
Nice thread you folks have here.
I don't know much about Delta but this thread does make for VERY interesting reading.
Also, if it's any help one of my mid-term timing models shows a pivot in the gbp-usd should happen right about now.
Please keep it up!!
It is great that you are interested in the concept of Delta.
I would like to bring to our attention one very important principle in applying Delta, or indeed other swing methods. I have learned it, experienced it and paid my tuition when I forgot about it.
I call this principle, Trading AWAY FROM confirmed points (H & L) as opposed to Trading TOWARDS TO the yet to be confirmed points.
This is especially important in this very volatile markets, when cable (the pair I trade) seems to be at times "out of sync" with other markets, meaning other fx pairs, commodities, equities and bonds. Eighteen months ago the markets were different, and one could travell towards the next ITD points with a SL not much more then 150 pips, not any more, when 500pips SL or more might not be enough. That is the reason that I have had to consider this principle and apply it. When I do not apply this principle more often then I like to admit I simple get in trades and sweat the trade or simply loose more that I would like, so I want to save you and myself hours of sweating and even a possible loss.
Delta is very helpful in providing a sense of direction, and on that account alone it has proved to be very rewarding and profitable. This also allows to get into trades lasting several days with multiple entries and exits affording larger positions, providing larger profits. But these entries have to be correct, and in the cathegory of the High Probability Trades, otherwise the larger position will provide a larger loss, not because Delta is wrong, but because it has been abused. That is especially so if one does not work on his/her own counts and solely depnds on the counts of others. If you do your own count you know its week points and are more careful at implementing the given count to your trading. The strong points usually take care for themselves, the weak points are the area that we like to discuss and compare with each other.
Back to the priciple of trading away from:
1. The point has to be establish within or around the Delta Time zone for the points in the given TF.
2. The point has to be confirmed and one should have some rules regarding this confirmation. Cmellon on his blog is kindly poiting us with one of the ways. Please study his postings.
This process has to provide a clear guidance in relation to the entry zone, SL and at least provide a minimum PT, being based on fibs or mometum. or both. I like fibs and use them a lot, but on cable I also have observed that when the price has reached the other side of STARC Bands on H4, I will take profits, and consider reversing, it is not an automatic reversing, this is an example of a momentum PT provided by the market's moves.
3. It is also reassuring if the considerred delta point is recognised by the trader as a significant EW structure or a part of it. (R.Miner books highly recommended for this very reason). Delta is preoccupied with TIME, and this makes it simpler. Possible entry zones and Profit targets are further marked by EW, Fibs and S/R.

There are many benifits of trading away from this well confirmed points, less stress, SL placement, and generally less work in maintaing the trade, making it possible for the part time traders to participate in the market.

There are few setups that I use to trade using Delta to provide a mid term and longer TF direction. Among others they are DiNapoli set up, Phillip Nel H4 Macd or cornflower on H1 or Bill Williams Aligator. Once you get familiar with a set up or two, it is good when they confirm the trade and the direction. Currently I am looking at the relation between Delta points and H4 MACD system by Phillip Nel, having all the time DiNapoli set up in the background too. I also have found H1 cornflower with Bobokus fibo very helpful, especially for the intraday trades, but being aware od the Delta direction.
I have attached the Starc bands indicator if you want to have a look at it. I use it a lot, together with Bollinger bands and the Centre of gravity, they all do a similar job, so do not put all of them on one chart. I also like ATR, indicators attached.
Have a great weekend everybody,
2be
PS: Over this long weekend you might like to do some studies, it is quality and free.
Phillip Nel, cornflower, Bobokus fibonacci or DIBS will give you some great insights. All this threads available on FF, and there are some great threads on T2W too.
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 STARC Bands.mq4 (2.4 KB, 141 views)
File Type: mq4 Center of Gravity.mq4 (5.4 KB, 128 views)
File Type: mq4 BobokusFibo.mq4 (4.6 KB, 134 views)
File Type: ex4 ATR & Range Data.ex4 (3.2 KB, 134 views)
File Type: mq4 Avg Range.mq4 (3.9 KB, 126 views)

Last edited by 2be; May 22, 2009 at 10:58pm.
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Old May 26, 2009, 5:10pm   #19
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G/U is in a strong up trend. the zone of 1.5730 seems to be a reasonable support zone for a while. In such trending market, the counts on the way up might resemble the reverse situation cable was facing when it was sharply falling down. The ascent is not that strong as the downfall has been, but nevertheless, there seems to be a strong trend up, and one shall observe the levels I have posted earlier on. By its rescent price action cable has open much greater potencials to the upside, and the SLTD2 LOW looks certain to have been reached at 1.34 zone. I do expect a retracement, but not to the level of the SLTD2.
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Old May 27, 2009, 1:24am   #20
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Hi guys,

Two days ago, I posted three possible turning time zones for long term high (LTD 15) at my blog.

1. LTD 15 could be due at ITD 11. If this is the case, then long term top should be due around May 27.
2. LTD 15 could be due at ITD 1. In this case, ITD 11 inverts and long term top should be due around June 11.
3. LTD 15 could be due at ITD 2. If this is the case, long term top should be due around June 22.

Posted are the charts. In the next post, I would post what I think is more probable scenario out of the three above.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-delta-itd-may-25-ver-1.gif   gbp-usd-delta-itd-may-25-ver-2.gif   gbp-usd-delta-itd-may-25-ver-3.gif  

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Old May 27, 2009, 1:35am   #21
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Gbp yen

Here's a related Delta analysis of GBP JPY. This is a Medium Term Delta chart. Since GBP JPY is quite correlated with GBP USD, if we could project GBP YEN with some degree of confidence, I think we could also get some insight on GBP USD.

I posted GBP JPY MTD count chart on May 14 in another forum, which has been confirmed recently by a break of 151.5. This means that for GBP YEN, Medium Term trend is UP until end of June or early July with price target probably around 162 - 167.

I therefore tend to think for GBP USD that long term high (LTD 15) will be due at ITD 1 or ITD 2 in June, which is closer to the long term high time zone of GBP YEN.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-jpy-mtd-may-14.gif   gbp-jpy-delta-mtd-may-27.gif  
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Old May 27, 2009, 1:05pm   #22
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I favour for the time being scenario similar to cmellon 2nd possibility. The other two are not exluded, however cable seems to be ready for a pulback, possibly clipping the 200EMA. The last candle has been manually inserted, but todays close shall provide some insight. Weak candle shall indicate a poss ITD H is very close, or possibly has been reached today.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-itd-mtd-27-05-09.gif  

Last edited by 2be; May 27, 2009 at 1:14pm.
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Old May 27, 2009, 1:24pm   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Here's a related Delta analysis of GBP JPY. This is a Medium Term Delta chart. Since GBP JPY is quite correlated with GBP USD, if we could project GBP YEN with some degree of confidence, I think we could also get some insight on GBP USD.

I posted GBP JPY MTD count chart on May 14 in another forum, which has been confirmed recently by a break of 151.5. This means that for GBP YEN, Medium Term trend is UP until end of June or early July with price target probably around 162 - 167.

I therefore tend to think for GBP USD that long term high (LTD 15) will be due at ITD 1 or ITD 2 in June, which is closer to the long term high time zone of GBP YEN.
Thanks for posting the count on this pair, and thanks for explaining Delta on your blog. I am asking others to read it. You are doing a great job!
On a larger scale and taking the fundamentals into consideration, I am of the opinion that the current equity rally migh be suspect, very suspect indeed, but how long it shall last?, who knows. I am not that comfortable to consider recovery based on more debt incurred by the US, I think that there is a lot of false hope in the market, and when all is squerred in, who knows where the USD will be? -DEE???
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Old May 28, 2009, 12:15am   #24
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The daily bar has closed at the time zone for the ITD H and it displays weakness in relation to the up move potential. ITD TF is in the Invertion Time Window so it is likely that this invertion will take place. ITW often is accompanoed with high volatility, and "unusual" moves, so it is important to be particularly careful and use good trade management. This move might preserve symetry in relation to the prievious between the ITD 4 & 5, ITD6 &7 , or be a deeper corrective marked with the red box. A note of caution, one has to be aware ot the LTD15 H, from which a more substantial move down is expected. The placement of that LTD15 for certain is very important, so please be on your guard, and do not allow yourself to be married to any position or uncertain opinion as to where the market should go. I shall consider short tomorrow when cable gets below my "war zone" thus declaring its direction (war zone - +/- 20 pips from the US closing, or below the low of the 27 -05-09 it also has to be in agreement with H1 and preferable H4 momentum settings.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-itd-mtd-27-05-09-02.gif   cable-d-27-05-09-din-pn.gif   cable-h4-27-05-09-din-pn.gif  

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