Delta Phenomenon

This is a discussion on Delta Phenomenon within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; Originally Posted by cmellon Hi everyone, I still could not confirm the arrival of ITD 11 because there's still no ...

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Old May 29, 2009, 9:55am   #31
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi everyone,

I still could not confirm the arrival of ITD 11 because there's still no reversal confirmation that I am looking for. I am looking for a daily candle close below the low of the signal day (signal day is the latest day that makes the highest high). In our case, the low of signal day now is 1.592, and we still could not get a daily candle close below 1.592.

There are three possibilities at this point:

1. If 1.608 holds, then ITD 11 may have arrived on time at May 27.

2. ITD 11 could arrive late in which case we should see more high in this next couple of days before a more meaningful reversal

2. ITD 11 has arrived on time at May 27, but then inverted at 1.585, and now going higher to ITD 1 due around June 11. You could see this illustration in my previous post titled 3 possible locations for LTD. The inversion is illustrated at the second chart.

We need several more days to determine which one is more likely.
As I am typing cable sits just below the 6085 H and seems to be bouncing of it. If this H is taken then 1.64 zone is the next poss target, for now 6085 level still holds on and despite the GBP positive news I have gone short, with a tight SL just above the last H.
Fundamentally on account of the news cable should fly up, but TA provides such a good entry with a reasonable and meaningful SL.
I do agree with pointing the three poss scenarios in relation to the current ITD point.
Market shall show us the way it has chosen to go.
I shall update over the weekend, then we will know what has happen.
Have a great weekend everybody,
2be

PS. this is a fast update, have been stopped, with a very small loss as the H has been taken by just a few pips atm. Shall re-evaluate the next itd/mtd/ltd over the this weekend. In a longer perspective nothing has changed. the next ITD does not have that much time to get in, as it is limited (time wise ) by the expected arrival of the LTD15.

Last edited by 2be; May 29, 2009 at 10:28am. Reason: added PS content
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Old Jun 1, 2009, 1:00pm   #32
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
2be,

I like your idea of MTD 12 inversion, and therefore establishing MTD 1 as the first leg.
If the SLTD move is so strong, in your case MTD 1 itself could have been LTD 16 since it's within the time frame of LTD 16 arrival, but this is assuming that LTD 15 has arrived.
Cable has achieved 38.2 minimum retracement, it has still got some more space to go up, a lot more, how much?? I do not know. The limit is in the region of 50% retracement, but there is the question of the LTD15 and there is not too much time for it to be achieved. I am trading very carefully atm. The LTD16 might be a very fast and short lived down move, as cmellon has suggested. Cable is in a strong uptrend, and one who ignores it is likely to be on the wrong side of the market.
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cable-01-06-09-itd-mtd-ltd.gif   cable-weekly.gif  
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Old Jun 2, 2009, 10:31am   #33
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ITD 11 / MTD 1 / LTD 15 has arrived

Hi everyone,

I am currently using this count, assuming that ITD 11 / MTD 1 / LTD 15 has already arrived. This count will be invalid if in the next three days, the top at 1.64991 is broken.

If 1.64991 is broken in the next three days, that would be a little too late for ITD 11 to arrive, and therefore if this happens, I would use the ITD 11 inversion count (look at my prior post for ITD 11 inversion scenario). In the event that ITD 11 inverts, we will have Intermediate Term Up until June 11.

But as of now, attached is the count that I favor. There is no inversion in my favored count, and in our case, Intermediate Term trend is down to ITD 1 due around June 11. Please note from the chart where LTD 16 could arrive. I leave some extra space to the right of the chart so you can see where LTD 16 could arrive. Due to the strong rally and better fundamentals, I won't be surprised if LTD 16 arrives in mid July (although it could arrive up to third week of August).
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gbp-usd-itd-june-2.gif  
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 1:03pm   #34
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi everyone,

I am currently using this count, assuming that ITD 11 / MTD 1 / LTD 15 has already arrived. This count will be invalid if in the next three days, the top at 1.64991 is broken.

If 1.64991 is broken in the next three days, that would be a little too late for ITD 11 to arrive, and therefore if this happens, I would use the ITD 11 inversion count (look at my prior post for ITD 11 inversion scenario). In the event that ITD 11 inverts, we will have Intermediate Term Up until June 11.

But as of now, attached is the count that I favor. There is no inversion in my favored count, and in our case, Intermediate Term trend is down to ITD 1 due around June 11. Please note from the chart where LTD 16 could arrive. I leave some extra space to the right of the chart so you can see where LTD 16 could arrive. Due to the strong rally and better fundamentals, I won't be surprised if LTD 16 arrives in mid July (although it could arrive up to third week of August).
Hi Cmellon,
I also have come to favour no inversion on MTD TF, and expect LTD16 to come on time or early. Please note that G/U has almost touched 38.2 ret which is in the zone for the A of ABC corrective.
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Old Jun 9, 2009, 10:33am   #35
 
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I realise that all posts here are GBP orientated but here's a MC1 (STD) chart for the S&P.

We're now in the region for the MC1/1 and yest have to see whether it was the friday high or needs higher specifically for me in the 960-965 area in rth

cheers
P
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Old Jun 9, 2009, 3:45pm   #36
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
Hi Cmellon,
I also have come to favour no inversion on MTD TF, and expect LTD16 to come on time or early. Please note that G/U has almost touched 38.2 ret which is in the zone for the A of ABC corrective.
Hi 2be,

Do you still consider the possibility that MTD 1 / LTD 15 has not arrived? I count that there are still two possibilities excluding MTD TF inversion:

1. ITD 12 inverts and ITD 1 is instead a high, and MTD 1 / LTD 15 arrives at ITD 1.
2. MTD 1 / LTD 15 arrives at ITD 2 high.

Would appreciate to know what you think.
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Old Jun 9, 2009, 4:02pm   #37
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The Delta thing is lost on me, but if you look at the Symmetry (not the LL or HH) of the Daly GBPUSD, it's a little stronger coming out of its mirror, but only marginally. That it hasn't quite managed to hit the 50% Fib from July last year would indicate potential weakness.

If it closes below 1.5529 before closing above 1.6827 your turns are probably in.

Something for everyone there. LOL
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Old Jun 10, 2009, 3:44am   #38
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Hi guys,

Here's what I think is happening.
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Old Jun 10, 2009, 12:55pm   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi 2be,

Do you still consider the possibility that MTD 1 / LTD 15 has not arrived? I count that there are still two possibilities excluding MTD TF inversion:

1. ITD 12 inverts and ITD 1 is instead a high, and MTD 1 / LTD 15 arrives at ITD 1.
2. MTD 1 / LTD 15 arrives at ITD 2 high.

Would appreciate to know what you think.
Hi Cmellon,
It looks that there is an ITD inversion, and until LTD15 is taken out I am holding as if it has arrived earlier on, but shall trade being aware that the LTD 15 might arrive late. Cable is in a 5 EW impulsive, it is too early atm to say that LTD15 is yet to arrive.
John is of the opinion that it is likely LTD15 has not arrived yet. Looking at the daily TF there is space for the cable to go up considerably highier, I shall be very careful.

Last edited by 2be; Jun 10, 2009 at 1:11pm.
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Old Jun 11, 2009, 3:03am   #40
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Hi Cmellon,
It looks that there is an ITD inversion, and until LTD15 is taken out I am holding as if it has arrived earlier on, but shall trade being aware that the LTD 15 might arrive late. Cable is in a 5 EW impulsive, it is too early atm to say that LTD15 is yet to arrive.
John is of the opinion that it is likely LTD15 has not arrived yet. Looking at the daily TF there is space for the cable to go up considerably highier, I shall be very careful.
Thanks 2be.
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Old Jun 11, 2009, 11:48am   #41
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This is a possible count, it will be invalidated if the H 1.6662 is taken. If so the LTD15 shall arrive late and the MTD1 shall be bang on time, as cmellon has sugessted.
Also posted H4 chart explaining the EW5 impulsive structure. This last move might run out of the momentum to the upside at the termination of the 5th, we shall see.
In relation to the LTD15, both outcomes are very possible, this count is just an alternative point of view.
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cable-itd-mtd-ltd-11-06-09.gif   cable-h4-11-06-09-din-pn.gif  
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Old Jun 12, 2009, 2:15am   #42
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I want to expand my previous GBP USD Delta post as to why I think a new high could be made. For the last Delta chart, I have more explanations of my thought at my blog, but here I would post something rather different.

I favor the idea that ITD 11 (my ITD count is only 11) does not invert, and the low at 1.58 was instead an early ITD 1 low (earlier by 3 trading days than the average turning date, which is okay). The reason why I think so is that by looking at the ITD chart, we can see that in the previous 2 cycles of ITD, ITD 1 was due exactly at the red vertical line. And current cycle at 1.58 also was exactly at the red vertical line. If this is the case, then I expect we are moving up to ITD 2 and it's due on average around June 22.

Also looking at the MTD chart, there were two instances of MTD cycle in the past where MTD 1 was due at or near the red vertical line. So extrapolating the same thing to the current cycle, we should expect MTD 1 to be due at or near the red vertical line as well.
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gbp-usd-delta-itd-june-12.gif   gbp-usd-delta-mtd-june-12.gif  
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Old Jun 16, 2009, 11:53am   #43
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
This is a possible count, it will be invalidated if the H 1.6662 is taken. If so the LTD15 shall arrive late and the MTD1 shall be bang on time, as cmellon has sugessted.
Also posted H4 chart explaining the EW5 impulsive structure. This last move might run out of the momentum to the upside at the termination of the 5th, we shall see.
In relation to the LTD15, both outcomes are very possible, this count is just an alternative point of view.
Just an update, there has been an inversion on ITD TF, we are now looking for a steady move down, so sell ou pull backs is likely to bring profits. H4 chart points to possible PT below the prievious ITD.
There is a possible 5EW impulsive to the next ITD Low, displayed on a H4 chart. Placed numbers indicate possible market's structure (impulsive) 5 EW without any indication of the price levels or timing, except the 1st and 2nd which already happen ( so I think).
Attached Thumbnails
cable-itd-mtd-16-06-09.gif   cable-h4-16-06-09-din-pn.gif   cable-h4-16-06-09-din-pn-02.gif  


Last edited by 2be; Jun 16, 2009 at 10:33pm. Reason: added content
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Old Jun 17, 2009, 4:04pm   #44
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2be's ITD 12 inversion is most likely the correct one. A break below ITD (12) at 1.58 should confirm the position of LTD 15 at ITD 12 high per 2be's chart.

In the meantime, Medium Term top and Long Term top most likely have arrived with GBP / JPY as well. Attached is the Delta chart
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Old Jun 18, 2009, 9:48am   #45
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I would like to point you to very interesting delta counts made on a shorter TF. 4xis2ez has been posting his counts on different forum, so I just send you the link. Sometime ago I have tried to make delta count on Short ITD TF, and it was then that I have contacted 4Xis2ez. His approach to delta is interesting, please read his posts, he has put a lot of work into it. Since he has work out this 28 day cycle. Please have a look. I shall try to invite 4xis2ez to this forum too, as his cotribution shall prove to be very valuable. Discuss the GBP/USD with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 593 - DailyFX Forum
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