Delta Phenomenon

This is a discussion on Delta Phenomenon within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; DOW has not closed the gap during the US session, news release - First Dump than pump towards the previous ...

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Old May 1, 2018, 10:48pm   #301
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DOW Update 1 May 2018

DOW has not closed the gap during the US session, news release - First Dump than pump towards the previous session close (intra day rotation (move up) clearly announced by the SC).

Please inspect the news, what it was, (positive/negative) and the the impact it made on PA, as it often is the case. Once you learn how to assess the news and its likely impact, you will be able to position yourself with greater confidence. Do not follow the "desired" impact of the news, usually design to throw you off the right path!

Have traded both ways, but lighter on the short side with the momentum, then after SC (selling climax) on tick charts and M3 was committed to the upside move towards the previous session close, only partial gap closure, so mark this zone and do not be fulled by charting which displays continuous PA of the DOW futures, unless you have access to charting platform which only displays "pit times PA".
I use US close, London open ans US open for FX also, but I find that it is particularly useful for DOW.
Other indices have their own different closing and opening times.
For FX I follow the set up I use for DOW plus London open.

Have a look at these two charts and at least mark the US close level for tomorrow.

Good pips to all,

2be

PS
The gray colour on volume indicator is the forecast volume taking into account the last 5 trading days.
Similarly ATR relates to the range during the given session, white is the fulfilment, shadow is the projected average of the last five sessions ATR
Attached Thumbnails
dow-daily-2018-05-01_222623.png   dow-m30-sessins2018-05-01_222830.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 1, 2018 at 11:13pm.
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Old May 3, 2018, 10:15pm   #302
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DAX Update 3 May 2018

DAX Update 3 May 2018

DAX last session PA

I have not traded DAX that much today, so will not comment.

Have taken a lot of time off before the US session, did not focus well on DAX

Have a look at session ATR fulfilment set against the projected average of five previous session
For that ATR indicator I have added XFRA and XETRA into one session.
Dax is so confusing with these sessions.
Attached Thumbnails
dax-delta-022018-05-03_220801.png   dax-sessions2018-05-03_214730.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 3, 2018 at 10:32pm.
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Old May 3, 2018, 10:31pm   #303
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DOW Update 3 May 2018

DOW Update 3 May 2018

DUMP and PUMP - news was "helpful"!!!

Notice the penetrated S zone on DOW sessions chart, followed by Rotation up - news caused "miracle" -Bad news - DOW up.

You might find it helpful to observe on the M30 chart the ATR distribution set against the session projected ATR set against the shadow of the last five US sessions ATR .
It has taken the first 3 M30 bars to fulfil the shadow ATR, than a slow start of a move up indicated by gentle SC on M3 and tick charts, the expected reaction to the "negative news". Perfect setup! Both ways, dump first than up.

Dow is likely on the way to MTD 2 (Low)

Included a shot of the "useful" news.

Good pip hunting setups on DOW during the US session today!

Good trades to all,

2be

PS
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-markets-wrap

Typical news "we have something right to say" after the session closed (as if you have not noticed) is to make you ready for the next timely mishap well marked in your account and designed to oil your loss making machine!.
It helps to rationalise the looses by assisting one to think - next time it will be different and I shall reclaim the loos, the news certainly support that scenario!

News and data releases are great, but one needs to read them correctly.
I am careful about the possibility of usefulness of the news to make trading decisions, the way they can be misused/misapplied, or poss more cynically they might be so constructed - I used to take different action/s, taking the face "value" of the reports and happily MISS-applied them to trading decisions. With our inborn and often heuristic and unlearned decision making mechanisms, one is very likely to fall by misinterpreting the information coming to us in many forms, including the news release, its timing and so forth.

There is far better way to use the news and data releases in a profitable way - but it demands thinking, which for many it is too much to ask for. Now I look forward to the report, news release ect. and trying to make good (profitable) use of them. Indeed they are proving incredibly good and leading to substantial profits, but I had to learn it, or create a new set of habits, it has not come in my genes. I do not know whether to some it comes naturally, I know that I had and still have to put some work into first changing the habit and to continually cultivate it, so it produces the desired yield.

It was my account and Tom Williams that has assisted me in confirming that I have to change and adopt how I treat the news release and its possible impact.

In trading like in life general one needs to learn from not only of what is happening, but also from what is not happening.
Trade what you see, read the thread on T2W, download the well put together T2W Trading Plan Template. It might be time to give yourself a great favour and profitably invest time in the creating a new trading plan or re-examine the existing one, please do not make excuses for not doing that. If one do not have time for such work, one has to have plenty of capital to give to others, which is fine with profitable traders and market will certainly absorb your often hard worked for cash.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...-have-one.html

If the news is a stimulus, there is a choice between the stimulus and result/reaction, given that the result/reaction is not compulsory, there is a choice to act in certain way or not to act which also is a decision.
Sadly many people/aspiring traders deny themselves that choice and blame everything and other people for their failure/s. So taking control and responsibility, in trading and in life general is the far better way, rather that blame adiction/s, "bad luck" and the rest of the universe for blowing trading account or for being generally miserable.

Do not allow CANT to kill the ABLE within you!

The concept of meritocracy is very helpful, choose what delivers good results (merit/s) and hold to it preferably fast! (crateo), it is not the easiest way, but far better that the alternatives. Have a look at Ray Dalio book and interviews, relating to meritocracy.
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-03_212609.png   dow-sessions-2018-05-03_213151.png   news-release-2018-05-03_221839.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 4, 2018 at 10:32am. Reason: adding PS content
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Old May 4, 2018, 3:53pm   #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2be View Post
DOW Update 3 May 2018

DUMP and PUMP - news was "helpful"!!!

Notice the penetrated S zone on DOW sessions chart, followed by Rotation up - news caused "miracle" -Bad news - DOW up.

You might find it helpful to observe on the M30 chart the ATR distribution set against the session projected ATR set against the shadow of the last five US sessions ATR .
It has taken the first 3 M30 bars to fulfil the shadow ATR, than a slow start of a move up indicated by gentle SC on M3 and tick charts, the expected reaction to the "negative news". Perfect setup! Both ways, dump first than up.

Dow is likely on the way to MTD 2 (Low)

Included a shot of the "useful" news.

Good pip hunting setups on DOW during the US session today!

Good trades to all,

2be

PS
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-markets-wrap

Typical news "we have something right to say" after the session closed (as if you have not noticed) is to make you ready for the next timely mishap well marked in your account and designed to oil your loss making machine!.
It helps to rationalise the looses by assisting one to think - next time it will be different and I shall reclaim the loos, the news certainly support that scenario!

News and data releases are great, but one needs to read them correctly.
I am careful about the possibility of usefulness of the news to make trading decisions, the way they can be misused/misapplied, or poss more cynically they might be so constructed - I used to take different action/s, taking the face "value" of the reports and happily MISS-applied them to trading decisions. With our inborn and often heuristic and unlearned decision making mechanisms, one is very likely to fall by misinterpreting the information coming to us in many forms, including the news release, its timing and so forth.

There is far better way to use the news and data releases in a profitable way - but it demands thinking, which for many it is too much to ask for. Now I look forward to the report, news release ect. and trying to make good (profitable) use of them. Indeed they are proving incredibly good and leading to substantial profits, but I had to learn it, or create a new set of habits, it has not come in my genes. I do not know whether to some it comes naturally, I know that I had and still have to put some work into first changing the habit and to continually cultivate it, so it produces the desired yield.

It was my account and Tom Williams that has assisted me in confirming that I have to change and adopt how I treat the news release and its possible impact.

In trading like in life general one needs to learn from not only of what is happening, but also from what is not happening.
Trade what you see, read the thread on T2W, download the well put together T2W Trading Plan Template. It might be time to give yourself a great favour and profitably invest time in the creating a new trading plan or re-examine the existing one, please do not make excuses for not doing that. If one do not have time for such work, one has to have plenty of capital to give to others, which is fine with profitable traders and market will certainly absorb your often hard worked for cash.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...-have-one.html

If the news is a stimulus, there is a choice between the stimulus and result/reaction, given that the result/reaction is not compulsory, there is a choice to act in certain way or not to act which also is a decision.
Sadly many people/aspiring traders deny themselves that choice and blame everything and other people for their failure/s. So taking control and responsibility, in trading and in life general is the far better way, rather that blame adiction/s, "bad luck" and the rest of the universe for blowing trading account or for being generally miserable.

Do not allow CANT to kill the ABLE within you!

The concept of meritocracy is very helpful, choose what delivers good results (merit/s) and hold to it preferably fast! (crateo), it is not the easiest way, but far better that the alternatives. Have a look at Ray Dalio book and interviews, relating to meritocracy.
I am done with DOW for a while!!!
Perfect set up!!!
1.30 bad/mixed up with some positive news!!!
pre US session DUMP
Early US session DUMP
after the first 15 min PUMP - PUMP - PUMP
DOW almost reached 224 fib EXT
USD regained a bit as well
I think that there will be PB or even rotation, have had good trade so far.
ready for break and coffee.
There has been SC earlier on and a BC is printing as I type of the R1D pivot ... so??

Please make sure to check the news!!!

Good pips to all!

2be

After the horses have bolted Bloomberg and other news providers are rationalising the move, pity they have not broadcasted their undiluted wisdom before the US session opening:
Nothing new under the sun.
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-daily-2018-05-04_154428.png   dow-dump-pump-01-2018-05-04_154639.png   dow-sessions-2018-05-04_155510.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 4, 2018 at 5:31pm. Reason: added content
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Old May 4, 2018, 4:45pm   #305
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DOW UPDATE

I am flat now, have had a great 2 hrs but do not fell focused enough to go either way, so after 24175 I am flat.
No FOMO, no regrets.
I do not want to be ought either way.
Not ready for going short yet.
Have got the felling that some PB is on cards, but it has to be confirmed by my strategy for intra day and scalping.
So good time to study, read and listen to Jordan Peterson lectures!

Wishing all a great weekend - long one this time around, in the UK at least.

2be
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 4, 2018 at 5:32pm.
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Old May 8, 2018, 9:24pm   #306
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DOW at the end of US session 8th May 2018

DOW at the end of US session 8th May 2018

DOW closed just a few pips up from yesterday's close.

Delta count on DOW chart does not provide me with any clear perspective atm, and it is not appropriate and force any particular count/s IMHO.
However the last two US sessions closed with a doji, they differ, wander if this difference will prove significant. Comparing accumulated volume, yesterday doji volume is lower, today it is higher. Also different ATR distribution patterns during the US session.

I shall trade tomorrow with a slight bias to the long side, but trades setups need to be in accordance with the strategy.

The US close zones proved to be of good use.

Just learned that one can have retrofitted news from Bloomberg at small subscription

May, is the time for DOW's move up approaching?

Good trades to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-08_210532.png   dow-sessions-2018-05-08_210504.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old May 9, 2018, 12:02pm   #307
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DOW pre US session preparation 9th May 2018

DOW pre US session preparation

News release at 1.30 BST

last two session candles doji

R on the top of the chart - retested few times

If surpassed to the upside great potentials for an UpDay, but make sure its is not a fake initial move.

If retested and rejected, move down.

It will be insightful how and which way the market reacts to the pre-market opening news release, esp in relation to yesterdays US Session close, Dump and pump or the reverse.
Mainly - how the pre-market and the first 15 min creates space for the profitable moves for the session.

Good trades to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dow-sessions-against-daily2018-05-09_102034.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 9, 2018 at 12:08pm.
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Old May 9, 2018, 6:07pm   #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2be View Post
DOW pre US session preparation

News release at 1.30 BST

last two session candles doji

R on the top of the chart - retested few times

If surpassed to the upside great potentials for an UpDay, but make sure its is not a fake initial move.

If retested and rejected, move down.

It will be insightful how and which way the market reacts to the pre-market opening news release, esp in relation to yesterdays US Session close, Dump and pump or the reverse.
Mainly - how the pre-market and the first 15 min creates space for the profitable moves for the session.

Good trades to all,

2be
DOW update

Space for a good move up has been created!

First DUMP - close the GAP - bounced up from the pivot @ 24323 and PUMP - PUMP

Slow at times but overall reasonable PA.

Done for the day! EXT 141 reached so is Rd2 @ 24543 (got my pips for the day)

Fibs drawn from the PA during the US session, H to L with extensions both ways - it is easier that way for me.

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dow-m5-2018-05-09_180247.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 9, 2018 at 6:13pm.
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Old May 9, 2018, 9:55pm   #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2be View Post
DOW update

Space for a good move up has been created!

First DUMP - close the GAP - bounced up from the pivot @ 24323 and PUMP - PUMP

Slow at times but overall reasonable PA.

Done for the day! EXT 141 reached so is Rd2 @ 24543 (got my pips for the day)

Fibs drawn from the PA during the US session, H to L with extensions both ways - it is easier that way for me.

2be
DOW after US close - ready for tomorrow

The big candles reflect the US session overall result, with smaller candles set to a given TF, M15 in the case of a posted MT4 chart.

Please take note of the volume, in respect of VSA and its performance set against the shadow, also note the accumulated session volume.

Similarly note ATR fulfilment against the shadow (set to 5 day average ATR) more developed indicator with more proprietary functions is still in testing mode, but the main idea to work on is there plainly displayed.

US close zone ready for tomorrow.

I find all of this and more good for studying the already closed session getting ready for the next one.

Last US session close proved very useful for trading during the US session today.

Good trades to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-09_214953.png   dow-sessions-after-us-close-2018-05-09_214235.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 9, 2018 at 10:03pm.
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Old May 10, 2018, 8:26pm   #310
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DOW Thur 10th of May 2018

Meaningful moves and news release - influential
USD found (strength) correction (edited on Fri 11th May) it should have been ...DOW found strength as USD got weaker.
Gap has not been closed so far this session (40 Min left) so?
Good trades with momentum and MAs, ADR set to 5 days reached
traded both ways, but overall so far it has not been an easy day for me, profitable overall but traded 5 hrs earning only 1.5% of the acc.
Have to leave so early post this evening.

Wishing all a pleasant evening!

2be

PS Correction due to being rushed yesterday!

USD found (strength) correction it should have been DOW found strength as USD got weaker.

I use FX Inter market analysis as well as couple of FX charts in relation to USD, crude and Gold and a few other things like bonds ect. - to monitor capital flow.
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-10_201359.png   dow-sessions-2018-05-10_201632.png   dow-m5-2018-05-10_201516.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 11, 2018 at 10:22am. Reason: Correction and added content
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Old May 11, 2018, 10:51pm   #311
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DOW Fri 11th May 2018

DOW Fri 11th May 2018 - after US session close

Range day on DOW.

Pivots and Fibs of good use, as well as momentum and PA structure on shorter TFs.

I pay more attention to PA during the "pit time" sessions, fibs are drawn from sessions, pa outside session has lesser value for me, useful though for gaining Gap perspective, very important for indices.

White Fibs - previous session L & H,rotation at Fib RET 38.2, though EXT 127.2 of the first session's move had not been reached - Yellow fibs.

Please observe the importance of US last session close and the current US session open.

On days like this one needs to trade S/R and pay attention to momentum and take reasonable risks taking profits when they are there.

Posted charts for further insights.

Wishing all a great weekend!

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-11_220914.png   dow-m30-sessions-fibs2018-05-11_221928.png   dow-m5-2018-05-11_222058.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old May 16, 2018, 10:07am   #312
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DOW 16 May 2018 before the US session

DOW 16 May 2018 before the US session

Last DOW US session (I mean NYSE session) has not closed the gap.
Marked that gap, it will come into play eventually!
Posting few charts for your perusal.
Monitoring the USD strength provides a useful insight/s.
I have included two charts of DOW sessions, MT4 M30 so one can compare them.
First one is shot of DOW taken yesterday, the second one today.

Good pips to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-16_095436.png   dow-sessions-m30-2018-05-15_111134.png   dow-sessions-m30-2018-05-16_095554.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old May 16, 2018, 9:59pm   #313
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DOW after US close 16th May 218

DOW after US close 16th May 218
Attached Thumbnails
dow-daily-2018-05-16_215349.png   dow-us-sessions-m30-2018-05-16_215427.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old May 17, 2018, 10:37pm   #314
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DOW Thur 17 May 2018 after US session close

DOW Thur 17 May 2018 after US session close

Interesting day on DOW, very playful!

Sessions chart of DOW makes the island very clear, came closer to fill in the gap, but decisively rotated to the downside above EXT224 @24838 but below EXT 261 (fibs taken from the US session first move), than if found bottom just below ext 127.1@24641 and finished the session with a doji.

The first move up closed the gap and continued up till the reversal (intra-day rotation), that move presented great opportunities!
Then above the "war zone" - up and below it -down.

This gap will be filled in, but it served as a big R so far, when surpassed to the upside R will become S.

Sessions chart ready for tomorrow US session.
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-2018-05-17_221117.png   dow-sessions-2018-05-17_221525.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; May 17, 2018 at 10:55pm.
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Old May 17, 2018, 10:43pm   #315
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DAX Update Thur 17 May 2018 - after the US session close

DAX out of sync with DOW atm

DAX and FTSE - interesting sync atm
Attached Thumbnails
dax-delta-2018-05-17_221155.png   dax-combined-xetra-xfra-2018-05-17_221359.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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