Delta Phenomenon

This is a discussion on Delta Phenomenon within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; Hi everyone, Here's my latest Delta chart. We should be on the way to ITD 11 high which is due ...

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Old May 19, 2009, 4:03am   #9
Joined May 2008
Cable - Closing In for A Long Term Top

Hi everyone,

Here's my latest Delta chart. We should be on the way to ITD 11 high which is due around May 27.

A medium term top (MTD 1 high) could be due together with ITD 11 high, and if this is the case, this would also be a Long Term top (LTD 15 high) as well.

However, medium term top (MTD 1 high) and long term top (LTD 15 high) could be due later at ITD 2. If this is the case, it will be due at around June 22. My guess is that MTD 1 high and LTD 15 high will be due here around this time. Price level wise probably around 1.6, but we'll look at it more when time is near. Also keep monitoring Dollar Index chart, as we could do a pretty clear Elliot Wave count on it.

In any case, a long term top will soon be due, giving an excellent opportunity to short for a long term or medium term time frame.

For those interested in super long term time frame, I believe that Super Long Term bottom (SLTD 2 low) was already IN at 1.35. Thus, even if we break down from LTD 15 to LTD 16, it should not break lower than 1.35. But I would not worry too much about this for now as this is a very long time frame. As time goes by, SLTD position will get clearer.
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Old May 19, 2009, 9:40am   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi everyone,

Here's my latest Delta chart. We should be on the way to ITD 11 high which is due around May 27.

A medium term top (MTD 1 high) could be due together with ITD 11 high, and if this is the case, this would also be a Long Term top (LTD 15 high) as well.

However, medium term top (MTD 1 high) and long term top (LTD 15 high) could be due later at ITD 2. If this is the case, it will be due at around June 22. My guess is that MTD 1 high and LTD 15 high will be due here around this time. Price level wise probably around 1.6, but we'll look at it more when time is near. Also keep monitoring Dollar Index chart, as we could do a pretty clear Elliot Wave count on it.

In any case, a long term top will soon be due, giving an excellent opportunity to short for a long term or medium term time frame.

For those interested in super long term time frame, I believe that Super Long Term bottom (SLTD 2 low) was already IN at 1.35. Thus, even if we break down from LTD 15 to LTD 16, it should not break lower than 1.35. But I would not worry too much about this for now as this is a very long time frame. As time goes by, SLTD position will get clearer.
The previuos H @ 1.5354 has been taken so that H is not an ITD, I shall update my count later on.
Well done cmellon, especilaay for the early positioning of the MTDs.
I shall update my counts to reflect this change, as the ITD - MTD structure has to reflect this last move.
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Old May 19, 2009, 12:04pm   #11
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The previuos H @ 1.5354 has been taken so that H is not an ITD, I shall update my count later on.
Well done cmellon, especilaay for the early positioning of the MTDs.
I shall update my counts to reflect this change, as the ITD - MTD structure has to reflect this last move.
Hi 2be,

I am just lucky
I am also aware with the possibility that 1.5354 could be a late ITD 9 and MTD 11. But my rationale for the early MTD positioning is that it would seem to me that a late MTD 11 at 1.5354 would mess up the MTD 12 position since it will mean that MTD 12 will also have to arrive very late. Hence I stick with my original count. The other thing is that the USD Index does not seem to finish the C wave, so I thought the overall near term direction is still USD weaknesses.
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Old May 20, 2009, 11:56pm   #12
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi 2be,

I am just lucky
I am also aware with the possibility that 1.5354 could be a late ITD 9 and MTD 11. But my rationale for the early MTD positioning is that it would seem to me that a late MTD 11 at 1.5354 would mess up the MTD 12 position since it will mean that MTD 12 will also have to arrive very late. Hence I stick with my original count. The other thing is that the USD Index does not seem to finish the C wave, so I thought the overall near term direction is still USD weaknesses.
Cable at interesting level. Before doing the Delta update I thought to post this few charts with DiNapoli settings. It is possible that the aqua (light blue) TR ON H4 shall become support, for sometime at least, as it has been forecefully pierced, especially if the cable travells into the land od early 1.6 on this leg.
Please study the monthly chart and the 3 green line zones, and come to your own conclusion/s.
There shall be a retracement of the cable, and if it takes the 1.34 Low in due course,it would accomplish the Impulsive 5th from the 2007 H, if this Low is not taken, the 1.34 Low could be the C of an ABC corrective. Only time will tell, both are very possible.
In any case, this is a scenario that SL have to be well used, do not get married to any trade, being long or short, as the high volatility can take this pair very fast in either direction.
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Old May 21, 2009, 12:37am   #13
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This count is "thinking aloud". Just considering the two poss outcomes. I am using 12 ITD counts, with a poss itd invertion, and a poss MTD 12 inverted too.
This is very much a working count, exploring a poss scenario.
Your comments are mosttly wellcomed.
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Old May 21, 2009, 4:28am   #14
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This count is "thinking aloud". Just considering the two poss outcomes. I am using 12 ITD counts, with a poss itd invertion, and a poss MTD 12 inverted too.
This is very much a working count, exploring a poss scenario.
Your comments are mosttly wellcomed.
Hi 2be,

Using your 12 ITD solutions, another possibility is ITD 12 inverts, making ITD 1 high later to be MTD 1 and LTD 15.

Worse yet, another possibility is ITD 12 inverts, and MTD 12 could also invert at ITD 1 high. This way, LTD 15 could even be higher. Delta rule allows a maximum of 3 MTDs plus 1 inverted MTD between two LTDs.

Both ITD and MTD are in Inversion TIme Zone right now, so there are many possible scenarios.
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Old May 21, 2009, 4:44am   #15
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
Cable at interesting level. Before doing the Delta update I thought to post this few charts with DiNapoli settings. It is possible that the aqua (light blue) TR ON H4 shall become support, for sometime at least, as it has been forecefully pierced, especially if the cable travells into the land od early 1.6 on this leg.
Please study the monthly chart and the 3 green line zones, and come to your own conclusion/s.
There shall be a retracement of the cable, and if it takes the 1.34 Low in due course,it would accomplish the Impulsive 5th from the 2007 H, if this Low is not taken, the 1.34 Low could be the C of an ABC corrective. Only time will tell, both are very possible.
In any case, this is a scenario that SL have to be well used, do not get married to any trade, being long or short, as the high volatility can take this pair very fast in either direction.
My current bias is that 1.35 is SLTD 2 low. Looking at my Delta chart in Dynamic Trader, I see that LTD 16 time zone is between mid June - mid August.

We have had quite a ride from 1.35 - 1.58 (currently) from Jan 22 to May 21, a period of 4 months and more than 2000 pips increase. Suppose today is LTD 15 (and we probably could make an argument that LTD 15 will be due slightly later), we have only 3 months period or less to mid August before LTD 16 should be due.

Again the 2000+ pips gain is within a period of 4 months. I am not sure that within three months or less, we could completely retrace all these 2000 + pips gain and some more. Timing wise, it's not proportionate.

If we are going to retrace and take out 1.35 by mid August, fundamentally we get to see some big shocking news again, similar to the credit crisis last year.

If SLTD 2 low is IN at 1.35, then SLTD 3 high will not be due until later this year. Once LTD 16 low is due on mid August, we should rally again to LTD 17 (and LTD 17 should be higher than LTD 15). LTD 17 would most likely be also SLTD 3 high, due at the end of this year.

Just my 2 cents.
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Last edited by cmellon; May 21, 2009 at 6:22am.
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Old May 21, 2009, 11:28am   #16
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
My current bias is that 1.35 is SLTD 2 low. Looking at my Delta chart in Dynamic Trader, I see that LTD 16 time zone is between mid June - mid August.

We have had quite a ride from 1.35 - 1.58 (currently) from Jan 22 to May 21, a period of 4 months and more than 2000 pips increase. Suppose today is LTD 15 (and we probably could make an argument that LTD 15 will be due slightly later), we have only 3 months period or less to mid August before LTD 16 should be due.

Again the 2000+ pips gain is within a period of 4 months. I am not sure that within three months or less, we could completely retrace all these 2000 + pips gain and some more. Timing wise, it's not proportionate.

If we are going to retrace and take out 1.35 by mid August, fundamentally we get to see some big shocking news again, similar to the credit crisis last year.

If SLTD 2 low is IN at 1.35, then SLTD 3 high will not be due until later this year. Once LTD 16 low is due on mid August, we should rally again to LTD 17 (and LTD 17 should be higher than LTD 15). LTD 17 would most likely be also SLTD 3 high, due at the end of this year.

Just my 2 cents.
The widow is very tight indeed for the LOW SLTD2 to go lower then the last 1.34 prievious low @ LTD14, agree with you that for cable to do so will demand another financial Tsunami, which indeed might happen, with some big moves of the equities, or a new wave of drought, causing the "green shoots" of economy to wither. However this is only a possibility, a remote one, but with Mr Obama wanders who knows what might be around the corner.
I shall update my count later on, ITD12 might have arrived in style.
I am shorting from now.
Good trades to all,
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