Delta Phenomenon

This is a discussion on Delta Phenomenon within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; Originally Posted by 2be DAX has made LL on Daily TF. Moves down are much more forceful that climbing up, ...

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Old Feb 7, 2018, 5:21pm   #271
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
DAX has made LL on Daily TF.
Moves down are much more forceful that climbing up, indicated by the three red lines.
Is that the beginning of the correction? Still too early to say, but the HH, LH structure has been decisively broken.
In view of that I am trading taking momentum and VSA on shorter TFs until I can read the daily scenario.

as usual, be careful and many good trades to all,

2be
The breaking of the HH/HL structure provided useful insights. Very forceful selling, retracement for sure, but not a black scenario, at least not for now so far.

Looks that MTD11 came early, only achieving two ITD Hs, a bit strange, but that is the PA.
Dax is now in the ITW on both ITD and MTD TFs.
ITWs are often characterised by increased volatility.
Please bear in mind that there might be single inversion, or double inversion on both TFs.

I wish there could be a clearer picture.

These big swings demands discipline, but certainly there are great opportunities!

Good trades to all!

2be
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Old Feb 9, 2018, 11:01pm   #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2be View Post
The breaking of the HH/HL structure provided useful insights. Very forceful selling, retracement for sure, but not a black scenario, at least not for now so far.

Looks that MTD11 came early, only achieving two ITD Hs, a bit strange, but that is the PA.
Dax is now in the ITW on both ITD and MTD TFs.
ITWs are often characterised by increased volatility.
Please bear in mind that there might be single inversion, or double inversion on both TFs.

I wish there could be a clearer picture.

These big swings demands discipline, but certainly there are great opportunities!

Good trades to all!

2be
WHAT A DAY!!!

Another day with a huge volatility especially on DOW.

There is a gap on DAX.
Loudspeaker formation and that gap on daily.

Red numbers on DAX chart have been placed just to be aware of them, no levels or timing intended!

Got chart of DOW, and today's play on the Gap close and down from the US close war zone. Managed to catch many pips on the move down.

Good weekend to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-2018-02-09_213440.png   dow-itd-mtd-2018-02-09_213943.png   dow-gap-close-2018-02-09_154414.png  

dow-incredible2018-02-09_213303.png   daz-itd-mtd-02-2018-02-09_215335.png  

Last edited by 2be; Feb 10, 2018 at 9:54am.
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Old Feb 10, 2018, 12:57pm   #273
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Confusing Bias with Certainty is dangerous!

One needs to know and remember that Delta Counts or Market Matrix is not a perfect tool and like other approaches it can provide a bias which can lead to a false sense of security especially when such a bias is confused with certainty in regards of the expected PA .
I have been following this approach for many years, when PA is contained to some degree within the timing and Price zones indicated by Fibs and waves calculation (please remember Delta is only concerned with Timing) one needs to recognise the danger of confusing BIAS with CERTAINTY that the PA has to obey the count/s. At other times when the counts are "challenging" it is easy to criticise it with "i know attitude" ... and so on.

The question is, if Delta is not a perfect tool, is it worth using it?

For the sake of argument, lets say that Delta is 50% "correct".
If 50% of trades are profitable, one should know what comes next...

Take note of another principle worth to remember, ...nothing works so well as broken patterns... at least for a time being , just after that, the PA obeys it again, after some loosing trades of course.

Loosing trades are unavoidable, but large looses are avoidable.
So it is important to keep the looses small! While not recommending any attachment to any given trade, a timely divorce from a loosing trade is likely to limit the damage.

If anything Delta draws attention to the higher TFs, like Daily and Weekly.

As there are not many followers on this thread to discuss and challenge different counts, not surprisingly I post occasionally only DAX counts, and that at some long intervals.

Delta is part of my overall way to look at the PA, and it sits well with other approaches pointed out in other threads.

Please do be careful not to confuse BIAS that Delta offers with CERTAINTY.

That is true to other approaches and Delta in that instant is not an exception.

Good weekend to all,

2be

Last edited by 2be; Feb 10, 2018 at 8:12pm. Reason: added contant
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Old Feb 21, 2018, 12:19pm   #274
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ITD 11 has formed below the bottom line of the "loudspeaker"
ITD1 is due on the 5th of March, might come late, one should know why.
Both ITD and MTD are in ITWs, each obeying their own particularities.

DAX and DOW have given good trading opportunities.


I find gaps on indices are providing a great perspective to trading, esp the play between the US indices and DAX. (please remember that what I call GAP on the futures of these indices is not a standard gap well defined on all other charts like the charts of commodities, shares, fx and other instruments including indices, futures of indices in that sense have too different types of gaps??? hope not too much).
That is why on indices I use open and close of "PIT TIME" of a given instrument still displaying futures price at these specific times.
For DOW, SP500 and FX I use that same setup, US Close, open, London Open and close, on FX I use these levels for orientation, esp US close padded on each side with 10 - 20 pips thus creating a "war zone".

Another thing to consider is the "different" impact of inflation on Indices, commodities , FX and bonds.
The direct influence of inflationary pressure makes it so challenging to construct the Delta counts, especially for indices and commodities, IMHO.
Inflation provides a different type of "stimulus" to FX pairs, where the ratio between the given two instruments deflating at that same time but at different speeds is very much in play (that is important in creation of the FX market). For Indices and commodities inflation "stimulus" is somewhat different (IMHO), as there is a deflating nominal currency that a given index is prised with, and other things that effect companies selected to create a particular index (all of that is so important in creating a PA in these market/s) . Commodities in that aspect are similar to indices, and shares.
Just a few thoughts to consider.
ATM and that moment has been with us for a LONG TIME, the only thing that "we" are able to control (to a degree) is the speed of DEBT growth. It looks that this global "control" is the best arrangement "we" are able to come up with.

It is a debt game, but game nevertheless, so take good profits while the game lasts!!!
Best wishes and a lot of positive numbers whatever thy mean!

Good trading to all,

2be
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Old Feb 21, 2018, 10:21pm   #275
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Have been shorting DOW
ITD count help with the bias!
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Old Feb 21, 2018, 10:23pm   #276
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DOW ITD - MTD
Good day on DOW, to the last seconds of the Pit Time
Positive news also helped to short in the evening.
Great run down!

DAX is posed to go ITD1 as well, included chart so DOW and FDAX can be compared
Attached Thumbnails
dow-itd-mtd-2018-02-21_211910.png   dax-itd-_-mtd-02-2018-02-21_212943.png  

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Old Feb 22, 2018, 12:41am   #277
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DOW at important level.
Reaction is likely to be significant
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Old Feb 24, 2018, 2:19pm   #278
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Delta counts of DAX and DOW on both ITD and MTD TFs are not conclusive at the time being.
ITWs on both TFs are accompanied with high volatility, as observed on numerous occasions.

A lot on "nominal value" or "increased numbers due to inflation" have nested themselves in chosen indices and chosen commodities, some indices and commodities are proving a better nesting place than others.

It is for each one to discern and make important decisions as to what to trade and how to manage these risks. In time to come, the news providers will be busy to crowd your space with interviews of multimillionaires who trough hard work managed the risks well, and finished with good profits, who have done so in times like we face now. The losers will not be considered, though they are essential for the market to exist, there are certainly more losers than winners we all know that well.

Interesting question to pose is;[B] [B]who is more important to the well being of the market, losers or winners? A correct answer to that question will put a vital perspective on many things related to the market, and on various service providers whose "care" is concerned above all with the most important group to them. (Its a bit like with a "big pharma", to which a healthy people are of much less concern that the people with conditions to treat, longer and more numerous the treatments the better.)
That is normal, and only a total lunatic will expect a different action/s. Why would anyone support less VITAL parts of any enterprise, and that so in the direct contradistinction to the less important or even injurious parts.
So have a little think this weekend, I am not going to answer this question publicly, privately I have answered this question to myself a very long time ago, and I hope you have done that also! If you are not too comfortable with your answer, let it sink in and allow it to impact the many faceted life of a trader. On this point like on many other important matters one needs to be absolutely and ruthlessly honest with oneself. Once the answer is reached, make sure to remember it,do not let it slip out and be forgotten on account of the "ever present pressure". In that way another step in a good direction has been taken and is continually being taken in the "here and now".

So back to DAX and DOW - mixed picture and various outcomes possible on both.
The ITD (blue) and MTD (red) numbers all with question marks, are there for making me aware and NOT TO INDICATE ANY PA LEVELS OR TIMING.

Until there is more clarity on Daily TF and possible delta count I shall trade these indices using other approaches like momentum, breakouts and gaps.
That is beyond the scope of this thread, so I shall only state that so nobody complains!

Only trade when the PA condition are aligned with a given strategy.
ATM strategy based on pure Delta tells me to stay aside, and if trading other strategies, be careful - nothing wrong with that.

Wishing all to have a great weekend,

2be

PS
While market in a strict sense is neutral, many entities operating in relation to the market are not neutral, they cannot be. Various interest groups are existing because they profit from providing very different services and traders likewise are not neutral in relation to the desired/expected profits or feared/less desired than profits, losses . A healthy awareness of that will assist in the process of gaining a better perspective of the trading environment.
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Last edited by 2be; Feb 24, 2018 at 6:41pm.
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Old Mar 1, 2018, 7:48pm   #279
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Possible Delta counts on DAX and DOW

Some more clarity, esp on ITD TF, tough it still looks very challenging. Nothing is to be taken for granted.

Once again a positive news from the US proved helpful to read the bull trap, DAX followed during the US sesion
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Old Mar 1, 2018, 8:00pm   #280
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DOW charts for today, several trading insights coming together.
clearly visible the US close, and gaps created
at the news first release the gap rotated from downside to the upside, creating a bear trap
at the second news release similar action, bear trap, then the real move down
The attached charts are open on my monitors all the time, they are a bit loud,but have used that setup for a long time. On M5 "angulation" Bill Williams concept is clearly visible with Semafor well in place.
Please observe on M1, the play of EMAs, structure and semafor in relation to M5 and M30.
Selling climax and Buying climax on M5. Went both ways, but with a firm bias to the south, due to news and the daily TF - ITD and poss MTD play. I use VSA mainly on M5 and M30, very rarely on M1, M1 being usually too fast for me to see and act on VSA.
On daily Dow is ( has been)at the interesting level again marked with a red box.
Over all a good day.

DOW just pushed down through that Support - Red box. It shall act as R for a time.
almost 750 pips range on DOW today - power of a positive news
Attached Thumbnails
dow-delta-01-2018-03-01_183720.png   m30-dow-012018-03-01_184432.png   m5-dow-01-2018-03-01_184458.png  

m1-dow-2018-03-01_162038.png  

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Old Mar 1, 2018, 8:09pm   #281
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Dax charts for today, several trading insights coming together.
Down from "megaphone" on the daily.
On m30 only partial gap closure ,interesting fibs play on that part closure, than down in expectation of the us open.
Dax did not "buy" the bear trap printed on DOW, so a good interplay. it happens like that.
TF gearing, structure and EMA interaction clearly pointing the direction.
Good day for dax also.

Good trades to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
m30-dax-01-2018-03-01_184343.png   m5-dax-01-2018-03-01_184302.png   m1-dax-01-2018-03-01_184644.png  

dax-delta-01-2018-03-01_184041.png  

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Old Mar 2, 2018, 7:49pm   #282
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DAX and DOW longer perspective taking LTD L17 into consideration.

Nothing is certain, and one can positively argue that it is unwise and risky to post charts like these.
Frankly I would not disagree with such opinion, however I have taken the risk and we shall see what will happen.
ITD L 1 is due on Monday, shall arrive on time or later. Do not be too long on the wrong side of the PA.
PA can be very lively near these rotation points, especially if PA is "assisted by news".
One needs to avoid bottom picking, confirmation on H1/H4 is always useful.

Wishing all a great and safe weekend,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dax-longer-possibilities-2018-03-02_183735.png   dow-longer-perspective-022018-03-02_185605.png  

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Old Mar 5, 2018, 10:04am   #283
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Looks like on DAX ITD 1 L day has arrived on time, great for intraday and scalping.
For a position multi entry trade to the long side on DAX, not a full commitment yet, for that I need to see US close later on today. If DAX follows DOW later today , the DAX L might be tested or even surpassed.
11690 is the critical level for DAX atm.
So far PT for today intraday trades hit (it has been set just below the round 12000 just in case we see a reaction at the US session).
I would expect some reaction to the round number anyway, especially when the US is not open yet.
High volatility at these rotation points is often the case.
I shall return to do some more trading later, closer to the US open, DOW is yet to make its move today (preferably during the "pit time"), so caution is required.

Good trades to all,

2be

PS
DAX ITD2 H might arrive early, if 11690 is not taken out. (According to Delta rule)

The news from The US is due at 3.00 GMT, there will be reaction to that news, will DAX follow it?
DOW is starting to build a gap to its close on Fri, a positive news would be great to make DOW react.
DAX was greatly assisted by news this morning
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 6:21pm   #284
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DOW ITD 1 L perspective
There is possibility that ITD1 L has arrived early.
Though it might be so, a much clearer picture would be provided if DOW makes another L lower that the one made on Friday @24213.
So I have shorted dow from 24750 with a tight SL, PT below Fri L, plenty of pips to go for, TS set to 50 pips for a time being.
As I type at BE and going lower in a good manner.

2be

PS Stop activated at BE
Shall establish short position later on
(content added at 5.53 GMT)
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Old Mar 5, 2018, 10:43pm   #285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2be View Post
DOW ITD 1 L perspective
There is possibility that ITD1 L has arrived early.
Though it might be so, a much clearer picture would be provided if DOW makes another L lower that the one made on Friday.
So I have shorted dow from 24750 with a tight SL, PT below Fri L, plenty of pips to go for, TS set to 50 pips for a time being.
As I type at BE and going lower in a good manner.

2be

PS Stop activated at BE
Shall establish short position later on
(content added at 5.53 GMT)
DOW ITD situation after the US close on Mon 5th March 2018

If within the next few days the L 24213 on DOW is not taken out, the ITD 1 L on DOW has arrived early.
In that case ITD2 is going to be higher, somewhere indicated by the second red box with the fibs.

Good trades to all,

2be
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