Delta Phenomenon

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Old Feb 22, 2016, 11:47am   #211
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I have re-established short posion on DAX at 9572 with a large SL.
Will add to that posion whan the strucure makes it possible.

ITD9 late arrival as it is a H in direction of MTD11 H. (One of the very few Delta rules)
Saying that everything can happen so please take care.
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Old Feb 22, 2016, 1:11pm   #212
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I have re-established short posion on DAX at 9572 with a large SL.
Will add to that posion whan the strucure makes it possible.

ITD9 late arrival as it is a H in direction of MTD11 H. (One of the very few Delta rules)
Saying that everything can happen so please take care.
Have added to the short position on dax another lot at 9554, this lot with SL at 80 pips
This is my position trade, will hold it for few days, and see what happens.
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There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

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Old Feb 22, 2016, 8:40pm   #213
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DAX - rising triangle and divergence on M30 and H4

DOW - Structure up with divergence on M30 and H4

This PA is near the expected rotation point ITD9H

This is the reason I am building short multi entry positions on both
Attached Thumbnails
dax-dow2016-02-22_185325.png   dax-dow-h42016-02-22_193735.png  
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Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
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Old Feb 23, 2016, 3:01pm   #214
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There is a strong historic support on DAX chart.
This might be the reason for the slow PA atm.
Next ITD10 L is due on Fri 26 Febr

Added content:
I have unintentionally labelled MTD points wrongly, just a simple mistake. Corrected them now, for the observant it was MTD10 (red).

There is a possible case to be made, due to the late arrival of ITD9 H, that MTD11 H might have arrived with it, in that case MTD11 H would have arrived early, it is possible tough I am not committed to that possibility atm. This is just an example how one tries to analyse PA and the possible perspective offered by Delta.

As one can easily see, Delta count/s is just some added extra in respect of market structure.
It only makes sense when one looks at the structure of HH/HL and LL/LH.
The advantage of Delta approach is its preoccupation with TIME.
Steve Copan explains it well in his recordings.
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-022016-02-23_174411.png  
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Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

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Old Feb 23, 2016, 5:40pm   #215
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Have added to the short position on dax another lot at 9554, this lot with SL at 80 pips
This is my position trade, will hold it for few days, and see what happens.
Shorts coverred on dax, just in case.
will re-enter shorts using M30 to M5 TFs - when new push down is indicated by PA

There is much more space for DAX to fall, 9370 zone is marked for today's ATR, we shall see.
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There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old Feb 24, 2016, 12:54am   #216
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Shorts coverred on dax, just in case.
will re-enter shorts using M30 to M5 TFs - when new push down is indicated by PA

There is much more space for DAX to fall, 9370 zone is marked for today's ATR, we shall see.
The zone 9370 has been achieved on DAX earlier today. Interesting.
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There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
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Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

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Old Feb 24, 2016, 11:20am   #217
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Covering shorts on dax at 92015, reason - very close to the daily ATR indication the L for today at 9207 and divergence between the PA and momentum on M5.

Dax has gone through the important support zone.
If the daily close is beneath it further south move more likely.
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd2016-02-24_102455.png   dax-m5-2016-02-24_102352.png  
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Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
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There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

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Old Feb 24, 2016, 9:47pm   #218
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Covering shorts on dax at 92015, reason - very close to the daily ATR indication the L for today at 9207 and divergence between the PA and momentum on M5.

Dax has gone through the important support zone.
If the daily close is beneath it further south move more likely.
ITD10 L might have arrived today.
ITD on time or early as PA is travelling to MTD11 H, if that is the case move to the upside will on cards.
It would be nice to have some kind of re-test of that L.
Dow disproportionally higher than DAX in relation to the zone of yesterday close at 9:00 pm London time.
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-0232016-02-24_203955.png  
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Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
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There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
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Old Feb 26, 2016, 12:39pm   #219
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ITD10 L might have arrived today.
ITD on time or early as PA is travelling to MTD11 H, if that is the case move to the upside will on cards.
It would be nice to have some kind of re-test of that L.
Dow disproportionally higher than DAX in relation to the zone of yesterday close at 9:00 pm London time.
Next ITD11H is due on 4th of March, MTD 11 H shall arrive with it, so on time or late for ITD point.

Posted two H4 charts with some fibs and one to one symmetrical move possible terminating somewhere between 1 to 1 or with the extension of 127.2 or 141.4 around that Fri 4th of March.
Time will show, this is just a possibility.

Inversion Time Widow first ITD TF and later on MTD TF, with extra points possible on either side of point 1 .

Please note the divergence marked in yellow.

Resistance zones and consolidation boxes (shaded in bluish colour) set to 40 pips over 21 bars on M15 are also of some assistance.

Good weekend to all,
2be
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-2016-02-26_110836.png   dax-h4-01-2016-02-26_111923.png   dax-h4-02-2016-02-26_112613.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; Feb 26, 2016 at 2:31pm.
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Old Mar 4, 2016, 12:21pm   #220
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
Next ITD11H is due on 4th of March, MTD 11 H shall arrive with it, so on time or late for ITD point.

Posted two H4 charts with some fibs and one to one symmetrical move possible terminating somewhere between 1 to 1 or with the extension of 127.2 or 141.4 around that Fri 4th of March.
Time will show, this is just a possibility.

Inversion Time Widow first ITD TF and later on MTD TF, with extra points possible on either side of point 1 .

Please note the divergence marked in yellow.

Resistance zones and consolidation boxes (shaded in bluish colour) set to 40 pips over 21 bars on M15 are also of some assistance.

Good weekend to all,
2be
ITD 11 H and MTD 11 H might have arrived

By a few pips dax has made a new daily H this morning, so ITD 11 H together with the MTD 11 H might be in, and if not there might be still a bit more to come, I would like a bit more, nearer the 9880 level or even higher, a move towards 10K would be a bonus, so I have a market order there. We shall see.

H4 is already printing divergence, so shorting is an option, though I do not advocate to catch tops like that without necessary caution.
Strictly speaking the ITD H might have arrived.
Dax has not closed the gap to its last Frankfurt session close.
Multiple divergences on H4 and M30.
For me it is time to go short with a sizeable SL and build the short position by adding larger lots to it at retracements.

Posted charts make a good proposition to go south into the region of 8500 for DAX or even slightly lower.
See you in the land of Emperor Penguin sometime in April.

Good trading to all,
2be
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-2016-03-04_112200.png   dax-h4-2016-03-04_112331.png   dax-m30-2016-03-04_112504.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; Mar 4, 2016 at 2:16pm.
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Old Mar 4, 2016, 2:56pm   #221
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
ITD 11 H and MTD 11 H might have arrived

By a few pips dax has made a new daily H this morning, so ITD 11 H together with the MTD 11 H might be in, and if not there might be still a bit more to come, I would like a bit more, nearer the 9880 level or even higher, a move towards 10K would be a bonus, so I have a market order there. We shall see.

H4 is already printing divergence, so shorting is an option, though I do not advocate to catch tops like that without necessary caution.
Strictly speaking the ITD H might have arrived.
Dax has not closed the gap to its last Frankfurt session close.
Multiple divergences on H4 and M30.
For me it is time to go short with a sizeable SL and build the short position by adding larger lots to it at retracements.

Posted charts make a good proposition to go south into the region of 8500 for DAX or even slightly lower.
See you in the land of Emperor Penguin sometime in April.

Good trading to all,
2be
That looks more convincing.
ITD11 H and MTD11 H looks like being in.

Still ITD is in ITW, so some extra points are possible.

PS - added content


MTD 12 L - will it be above MTD10 or below it.

If MTD12 is below MTD10 it would suggest a more decisive end of this correction.
In that scenario I would find it easier to build long position.

If the MTD12 comes higher that MTD10 will mean that the correction was not as deep.

I would prefer the former option, without a doubt market will have its own way.

Deeper correction on the indices will be of great assistance in the continuation easing policy (basically printing more money), as the demos will be convinced that there is no end to the black side of the market and will be ready to donate their own fruit trees for the want of more paper for the fresh notes. The wise of the world together with banks will come to the rescue and eventually the party mood of boundless happiness will return and the numbers (however empty) on the indices will rise rapidly. So why not catch the rise. These numbers have very little to do with the reality or common sense, in spite of what the gurus on CNBC or Bloomberg have to say. As traders it is profitable to catch these irrational moves, fluctuation from bottomless despair to boundless optimism with no foundation at all, as the best book says, "nothing new under the sun".
Let us remember that for many hundreds of years the crowds were fascinated in the proposition to make gold out of base metals, are we so different now? I doubt it.
Well that is enough from me, being Saturday I have to spend now £10 + on parking while shopping in a 99 pence shop! What a treat. Who knows, they might have a fresh bottle of the potent "elixir vitae" there! (joking - I do not like shopping and especially on the High Street!)
Good weekend to all!!!


Have posted two extra charts, on H4 ITD and MTD points have been indicated together with the corresponding Lunar Months (MTD12 red shall come after the vertical red line demarcating Lunar Month) .
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-04-2016-03-04_135415.png   dax-monthly-2016-03-04_223036.png   dax-h4-06-2016-03-04_223838.png  

__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!

Last edited by 2be; Mar 5, 2016 at 2:40pm.
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Old Mar 9, 2016, 7:28pm   #222
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
That looks more convincing.
ITD11 H and MTD11 H looks like being in.

Still ITD is in ITW, so some extra points are possible.

PS - added content


MTD 12 L - will it be above MTD10 or below it.

If MTD12 is below MTD10 it would suggest a more decisive end of this correction.
In that scenario I would find it easier to build long position.

If the MTD12 comes higher that MTD10 will mean that the correction was not as deep.

I would prefer the former option, without a doubt market will have its own way.

Deeper correction on the indices will be of great assistance in the continuation easing policy (basically printing more money), as the demos will be convinced that there is no end to the black side of the market and will be ready to donate their own fruit trees for the want of more paper for the fresh notes. The wise of the world together with banks will come to the rescue and eventually the party mood of boundless happiness will return and the numbers (however empty) on the indices will rise rapidly. So why not catch the rise. These numbers have very little to do with the reality or common sense, in spite of what the gurus on CNBC or Bloomberg have to say. As traders it is profitable to catch these irrational moves, fluctuation from bottomless despair to boundless optimism with no foundation at all, as the best book says, "nothing new under the sun".
Let us remember that for many hundreds of years the crowds were fascinated in the proposition to make gold out of base metals, are we so different now? I doubt it.
Well that is enough from me, being Saturday I have to spend now £10 + on parking while shopping in a 99 pence shop! What a treat. Who knows, they might have a fresh bottle of the potent "elixir vitae" there! (joking - I do not like shopping and especially on the High Street!)
Good weekend to all!!!


Have posted two extra charts, on H4 ITD and MTD points have been indicated together with the corresponding Lunar Months (MTD12 red shall come after the vertical red line demarcating Lunar Month) .
Retest of the ITD11/MTD11 H

It is often that the rotation points get tested, and the charts below illustrate this well.
DAX and DOW have slightly different structure but there also are some similarities.

Please note three ITD H rotation points on DOW ( marked by small red windows), after watching S Copan's recordings and/or studying his book one would draw some conclusion from this PA.

There were good shorting opportunities today from the tested H zone on both indices. Delta counts proved helpful again.

Good trading to all,

2be
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-2016-03-09_181134.png   dow-itd-mtd-01-2016-03-09_181522.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old Mar 10, 2016, 10:24pm   #223
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
Retest of the ITD11/MTD11 H

It is often that the rotation points get tested, and the charts below illustrate this well.
DAX and DOW have slightly different structure but there also are some similarities.

Please note three ITD H rotation points on DOW ( marked by small red windows), after watching S Copan's recordings and/or studying his book one would draw some conclusion from this PA.

There were good shorting opportunities today from the tested H zone on both indices. Delta counts proved helpful again.

Good trading to all,

2be
Looks like ITD11 H came in very late.
Obviously the news inspired move up did not last long, but this move has created a new H, ITD 11.
I prefer to treat it as a late arrival of that ITD point rather than try to look at possibly inversion on ITD TF.

I have shorted that move and continue to have a bias to short that market towards 8500 on DAX and towards mid 15K on DOW.
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd2016-03-10_211952.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old Mar 14, 2016, 12:05pm   #224
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Looks like ITD11 H came in very late.
Obviously the news inspired move up did not last long, but this move has created a new H, ITD 11.
I prefer to treat it as a late arrival of that ITD point rather than try to look at possibly inversion on ITD TF.

I have shorted that move and continue to have a bias to short that market towards 8500 on DAX and towards mid 15K on DOW.
It looks like inversion on ITD TF on both DAX and DOW.
The proximity of point one often is associated with increased volatility, this is certainly the case now.

I find it very challenging, and do not want to mislead anybody, so I would repeat and advocate serious caution, and only trade upon well confirmed structure of the current PA.

Looking at the charts one can see that a straightforward count is not working, and a single or double inversion is a likely scenario.

Bear in mind that soon there is also MTD ITW (Inversion Time Window), so possibly an added point/s on that TF too.

This all points to a higher volatility weeks, when trading momentum on a shorter TF might be a good option, without the bias provided by delta count/s of H and L rotation points.

Good trading to all,
2be
Attached Thumbnails
dax-itd-mtd-02-2016-03-14_104317.png   dow-itd-mtd-2016-03-14_104525.png  
__________________
A Trading Plan - You MUST Have One! http://www.trade2win.com/boards/home...ave-one-7.html
Outside of Trading Plan and Strategy there is chaos I am often tempted to explore but not with my trading capital!
When NOT TO TRADE is important, or even more crucial than to know when TO TRADE.
There is no trading without risk, do not think otherwise.
Without being stupidly greedy - grab what you can!
Without being too afraid - lose as little as you can!
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Old Mar 22, 2016, 10:26pm   #225
Joined Dec 2004
Hi 2be,
The attachment is my 96 LM solution using Dow data, to find the ITW for MC2. It looks as though both MC2 points 1 and 2 will be lows.
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