Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

It's been a month since I updated the Futures Relative Performance rankings. Soybean Meal (SM) continues to be the outperformer of the group still by a long way, but the Dollar Index (DX) and 30 year Treasuries (US) have moved into positive territory over the last month, which highlights their largely inverse relationship with equities. The only other outperformer is Soybeans (S) which has mostly held above it's 30 week MA during the pullback and showed good relative strength. All the other futures in the list continue to underperform the S&P 500.

Here's the updated Futures Relative Performance list and attached charts

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is the outperformer of the major US sectors currently, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU) and Technology (XLK).

Financials (XLF) are lagging the S&P 500, but the weekly Mansfield RS is close to going positive so that looks to be the sector to watch currently for a possible entry.

Energy (XLE), Basic Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) continue to underperform.

It's been a long time since I last did a stage analysis on the S&P 500. But the price action of the last few months has moved it into Stage 3 for the first time since last summer. So I thought it would be useful to look at the stages again.

The move down to find the recent low was more extreme than last years. But price did find support and we now have a Stage 3 range defined between 1422.48 and 1266.74.

The 30 week moving average has flattened and price is currently trying get back above it and also the 50 day MA which can be seen on the daily chart.

The S&P 500 has continued to outperform the broad market index (New York Stock Exchange ^NYA), while weekly cumulative volume has moved to the sell side.The daily cumulative volume is starting to be more positive though and has recently given a buy signal.

Attached is my marked chart

Attached is the latest major charts for analysis. The Dollar index bounced at the previous resistance zone and looks to be making a Stage 2 continuation move. Next major resistance zone is around the 84 to 85 level.

Gold has been in a major Stage 3 range for the last year and it broke down into early Stage 4A in early May when it started closing below it’s 3 year trend line and couldn’t get back above it. However, we are now at a critical level for Gold as the current support level has held on multiple attempts to break it over the last year. But this weeks close was the second lowest and is right on the support line. If it breaks down further here it could break very hard and enter Stage 4 properly.

So it's a critical week for Gold as it could either bounce here again, or break down sharply. Personally I think it will break down and intend to short it below 1550 with a stop loss above the recent highs at 1654.

Stan Weinstein interview is 18 mins into this radio programme
Technician Stan Weinstein: Stay Disciplined and Focus on Individual Companies, Not Markets

Thanks for finding that lplate. He seems to be doing an interview on there every 3 months or so now to try and tout some business.

It was really useful again to check that I'm the right track with my understanding of the method and he confirmed what I've said on here recently that, the S&P 500 is Stage 3 and Gold is in early Stage 4. So I'm pleased with that.

It was funny at the end of the interview when he talked about people emailing him after the last interview for a copy of the GTA for free. I unashamedly did that and told him I couldn't afford it yet, but hoped to in the future and know a few others from this thread that did too. But I think it was well worth it, as I've used those GTA freebies to help confirm my understanding of the stages and have shared the examples on here for all of you. See page 41 of the thread here for multiple examples of the stages from those GTA reports: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1804190

The commodities have seen a turn around the last few weeks and now four softs are outperforming the S&P 500.

Wheat (W) and Oats (O) have made strong moves and Wheat made a Stage 2A breakout this week closing above the 724.5 recent high made in May. The 50 day and 200 day moving averages have also had a positive crossover and the 30 week MA has turned up. So it's looking more promising that Wheat could grind higher. Oats have had a volatile base and a failed Stage 2 breakout in March that rolled over to form a larger Stage 1 base. It's now in Stage 1B again and a weekly close above 351 would make it Stage 2 again imo.

Soybean Meal (SM) and Soybeans (S) continue to be positive and are both attempting to make a Stage 2 continuation move above their highs.

The Dollar Index (DX) has pulled back, but it's Mansfield RS is still slightly better than the S&P 500, although this could easily change over the next week.

10 and 30 year Treasuries (US) have fallen below the zero line and are now under performing the S&P 500 again, which is a good sign for equities.

Here's the updated Futures Relative Performance list and attached charts