Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Taking the current market stage into consideration, the method recommends looking for more Stage 2 continuation moves than initial Stage 2A breakouts. So with that in mind I've found a new entrant to the S&P 500 that seems to have attracted some big money on the 3rd April as it had a large volume spike on that day. FOSL (Fossil) made a Stage 2 continuation move on Friday to close at new all time highs. The relative performance is excellent as it's outperformed the S&P 500 by 37% since the October lows and is currently in the top 2% of S&P 500 stocks for relative performance.

If you choose to trade it then the trader stop loss position should be around 129.29 imo. Attached is the charts.

The major stock indexes pulled back this week with most of the major indexes closing in negative territory after initially moving higher. The Nasdaq 100 was the only standout with a slightly higher close on the previous week. The indexes are all in Stage 2B, so we should be looking to buy on pullbacks to support levels and also making Stage 2 continuation buys until the market starts to form a Stage 3 top - which there's no sign of yet, as we still haven't had a significant pullback; although the last months price action is suggestive imo that one could possibly be beginning. So selective stock picking on the long side is required at the moment for new trades as risk is heightened at this stage of the cycle.

Gold (GC) moved down this week to make a Stage 4A breakdown close below the 3 and half year trend line. This was supported by the Dollar Index (DX) bouncing off of it's own trend line support to close the week just above the 80 level and back above it's 50 day MA.

Copper (HG) continues to form a triangle formation along the 200 day MA and needs to break above $4 resistance to move into Stage 2A.

Crude Oil (CL) had an indecisive week, breaking below recent support and then bouncing around the upper range of it's November to February Stage 1 consolidation. It's still in Stage 2, but it needs to recover strongly back above the 50 day MA or it could fall back to test the lower end of the previous Stage 1 range.

Finally that leaves the Treasuries (US & TY), which had a largely positive week. Although Friday's big move higher in both the 10 year and the 30 year Treasuries was on a thin market. We're in Stage 3 now, with the price's retesting the previous breakdown levels on both with Friday's close. So if they manage to continue higher this week then stocks will come under some more pressure.

Below is the charts for your own stage analysis.

It was a down week for all the major US industry sectors except for Technology (XLK) which finished the week slightly higher. It's the first time this year that so many sectors have been down, so it suggests some caution is needed this week.

Technology (XLK, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financials (XLF) are the top three sectors by the Mansfield RS reading still. Energy (XLE) is still the weakest.



The US Sub-sectors didn't have much movement at the top or bottom this week. But last weeks fifth strongest - Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (^DJUSHB) - dropped out of the top five into eighth and was replaced by Dow Jones US Pipelines Index (^DJUSPL), which has 2 stocks in the S&P 500 which are; El Paso Corp (EP) and Williams Cos Inc (WMB).

The bottom five had little change and Dow Jones US Coal Index (^DJUSCL) is still the weakest sub-sector, with the other weakest being the metals and miners.

Here's the updated top and bottom US Sub-sectors:

Top five strongest sub-sectors:
1. ^DJUSCR - Dow Jones US Computer Hardware Index
2. ^DJUSTT - Dow Jones US Travel & Tourism Index
3. ^DJUSHI - Dow Jones US Home Improvement Retailers Index
4. ^DJUSDS - Dow Jones US Industrial Suppliers Index
5. ^DJUSPL - Dow Jones US Pipelines Index

Bottom five weakest sub-sectors:
1. ^DJUSCL - Dow Jones US Coal Index
2. ^DJUSMG - Dow Jones US Mining Index
3. ^DJUSPM - Dow Jones US Gold Mining Index
4. ^DJUSPT - Dow Jones US Platinum & Precious Metals Index
5. ^DJUSAL - Dow Jones US Aluminum Index

It's been a little while since I put the momentum charts up as there hadn't be in any change in trend. However, this week the weekly momentum rolled over for the first time since early December and the 200 week Advance Decline line moving average also broke down from it's recent range. If you compare with the 2010 Stage 2 move this happened first in Jan 2011 and signaled that the move was beginning to get tired, but was a few months before the top was put in.

The 200 day moving average of the NYSE advance decline figures - which Weinstein calls his Momentum Index can be seen on the daily chart. This has moved sideways since early February and is close to the lower part of its range currently, whereas price has continued higher. So momentum is definitely diverging from the price action.

Attached is the charts

Below is the latest UK FTSE 350 Sectors charts and Mansfield Relative Strength rankings. FTSE 350 Sector Oil Equipment Services & Distribution Index (^NMX0570) moves into the top spot this week from second place last week. Beverages (^NMX3530) is the big mover though, jumping from 9th up to 3rd place in the Mansfield relative strength rankings. Below is the full list in rank order and attached is the updated charts:

I did start a new thread for the market breadth charts, but as they are used by Weinstein in his Global Trend Alert for some of the broader analysis of the market, I thought it's probably more useful to include them in this thread instead to help with the market analysis.

There were a few changes this week on the short and medium term market breadth charts of the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) and the NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average ($NYA150R). The $NYA50R moved to bear confirmed status and has moved down to 50%. So only 50% of stocks in the NYSE are now above their 50 day moving average. The $NYA150R also moved to Os but has yet to give a sell signal as it would need to move one box lower - so it is now on bear alert status in a high risk field position with 77.27% of stocks now above their 150 day moving average.

The longer term breadth charts of the NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) and NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) are still on Bull confirmed status and in a column of Xs. So the longer term picture is still good although short term the breadth charts are showing weakness as 39% less stocks are above their 50 day moving average than in early February now, so this is a cause for near term concern.

Below are the breadth charts:

NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) - this is a compilation of the percent of stocks that trade on the NYSE that are on Point and Figure buy signals and tells you whether to be offensive or defensive with your strategy.

• Xs = offense
• Os = defense
• 30% and 70% are the oversold and overbought areas where risk is highest
• All stocks have an equal vote

NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 200 day moving average ($NYA200R) - this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 200 day moving average



NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 150 day moving average ($NYA150R)- this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 150 day (30 week) moving average



NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 50 day moving average ($NYA50R)- this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day (10 week) moving average



For more information on how the breadth charts are created you can visit:Investors Intelligence Global - Breadth Indicators or go to the Dorsey Wright P&F university mini site, which explains in detail and has a quick online test to help you understand: PnF University

Attached is my current watchlist picks

as always thanks for the detailed info.