Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Attached is the latest major charts for analysis. I've added the FTSE 100, DAX and Russell 2000 to mix to ...

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Old Mar 3, 2012, 3:42pm   #323
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Attached is the latest major charts for analysis. I've added the FTSE 100, DAX and Russell 2000 to mix to broaden the comparisons.

The 30 year Treasuries chart is this weeks chart of note for me as it moved from Stage 2B- into Stage 3A- with it's close below the 30 week weighted moving average this week. I've given it a minus rating as the price is yet to close below the recent tight range below 139.75 so it could still go either way here, but the negative indicators continue to build up with increased volume on this weeks move down, the Mansfield RS is also negative and cumulative volume gave a sell signal four weeks ago and has failed to get back above it's moving average.

The Russell 2000 small cap index underperformed the S&P 500 by around 3% this week and broke below it's February consolidation range suggesting to me that people are moving out of the riskiest areas either to the sidelines or rotating into some of the larger more defensive stocks as treasuries didn't see the normal inverse correlation. So a potential warning sign there imo.

Gold and Silver also made headlines this week with a Bernanke fueled sell off, which was exacerbated by the contact rollovers in the futures as people decided to book their profits from the run up since the new year began. Both were hit hard but no major technical damage was done as Gold held above 1700 and Silver pulled back to the support of it's recent range around the $34 level. This could change if Gold closes below 1700 or Silver below $33 so it will be interesting this coming week to watch.

Copper advanced a little further towards it's Stage 2A breakout point of $4 again this week and settled the week at $3.903. I personally think this is one of the key components necessary to drive the stock market higher as if it can breakout then it will give extra weight to stocks to continue higher.

WTI Crude Oil put in a short term high at $110.55 after quite a volatile week of headlines affecting it, but the short term trend is still up as it's forming a new trading range between $105 and $110.

Finally the Dollar Index had a strong reversal following the Bernanke comments and closed the week higher. The $80 level looks to be fairly strong resistance as it's had a number of reversals around there recently, but it closed the week back above it's uptrend line so it is definitely an important one to watch this coming week as it is mostly inversely correlated with the stocks and commodities markets.
Attached Thumbnails
spx_weekly_2_3_12.png   ndx_weekly_2_3_12.png   iwm_weekly_2_3_12.png  

ftse100_weekly_2_3_12.png   dax_weekly_2_3_12.png   gc_weekly_2_3_12.png  

hg_weekly_2_3_12.png   cl_weekly_2_3_12.png   ty_10yr_treasuries_2_3_12.png  

us_30yr_treasuries_mrk_2_3_12.png   dx_dollar_index_2_3_12.png  
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Old Mar 3, 2012, 5:20pm   #324
 
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UK Sectors

isatrader started this thread Attached is the latest UK sectors charts for analysis.
Attached Thumbnails
uk_sectors_list_3_2_3_12.png   uk_sectors_1_2_3_12.png   uk_sectors_2_2_3_12.png  

uk_sectors_3_2_3_12.png   uk_sectors_4_2_3_12.png  
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Old Mar 5, 2012, 12:21am   #325
 
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Secondary Indicators

isatrader started this thread While the weekly chart secondary indicators still look strong, the daily chart is starting to show some divergences with the price action. The Advance Decline Line 200 day moving average has gone sideways during February while the S&P 500 has continued higher. Daily momentum has also started to roll over over the last month or so and is beginning to move lower. So some warning signs are beginning to appear on the short term chart, but as always these are secondary factors as the price action is the primary focus.
Attached Thumbnails
spx_momentum_2_3_12.png  
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Old Mar 6, 2012, 3:34pm   #326
 
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Stage 1B - examples

isatrader started this thread My email to Stan was partially successful. I wasn't able to get hold of any back issues of the GTA from him; however, he very generously let me see the most recent report and so I can now create more examples of the sub-stages for us all. A key stage I was hoping to be able to identify better was Stage 1B (Late in base-building phase. Watch for breakout.) As once in Stage 1B the Stage 2A breakout point can be easily defined as you will see from the numerous examples below.

All the examples are from 3rd March 2012 and their current charts will more than likely be in worse shape now due to the market sell off the last few days. But the point of the examples though is to learn how to identify the stage, which for me have made it much clearer. Note the importance of being above 200 day moving average on all the examples.
Attached Thumbnails
apd_2-3-12.png   bac_2-3-12.png   bk_2-3-12.png  

bms_2-3-12.png   cbg_2-3-12.png   c_2-3-12.png  

cma_2-3-12.png   do_2-3-12.png   f_2-3-12.png  

hig_2-3-12.png   hes_2-3-12.png   hcbk_2-3-12.png  

hban_2-3-12.png   luk_2-3-12.png   ms_2-3-12.png  

nvda_2-3-12.png   pcar_2-3-12.png   rok_2-3-12.png  

sni_2-3-12.png   spls_2-3-12.png   stt_2-3-12.png  

trow_2-3-12.png   unm_2-3-12.png   vlo_2-3-12.png  

wm_2-3-12.png   zion_2-3-12.png  
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Old Mar 7, 2012, 1:20pm   #327
 
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Stage 4B- Examples

isatrader started this thread Attached are examples of Stage 4B- which are not yet “officially” in Stage 1A, but the stock has now seen its low for the cycle.
Attached Thumbnails
aa_2-3-12.png   bmc_2-3-12.png   flir_2-3-12.png  

hal_2-3-12.png   hsp_2-3-12.png   nflx_2-3-12.png  

qep_2-3-12.png  
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Old Mar 7, 2012, 1:58pm   #328
 
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Stage 1A - examples

isatrader started this thread Attached are examples of Stage 1A - Start of a base. Needs much more time.
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aon_2-3-12.png   bdx_2-3-12.png   has_2-3-12.png  

jci_2-3-12.png   joyg_2-3-12.png   lll_2-3-12.png  

luv_2-3-12.png   orcl_2-3-12.png   tap_2-3-12.png  

vno_2-3-12.png   x_2-3-12.png  
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Old Mar 7, 2012, 2:53pm   #329
 
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Stage 1 - examples

isatrader started this thread The following are examples from the 2nd March 2012 of Stage 1 - which is classed as the Basing Phase. May begin accumulation. These are not recommendations, just examples to help you learn to define Stage 1 more accurately.
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ctsx_2-3-12.png   emr_2-3-12.png   expd_2-3-12.png  

frx_2-3-12.png   jdsu_2-3-12.png   jnpr_2-3-12.png  

key_2-3-12.png   kmx_2-3-12.png   l_2-3-12.png  

lm_2-3-12.png   met_2-3-12.png   mtb_2-3-12.png  

mwv_2-3-12.png   ndaq_2-3-12.png   noc_2-3-12.png  

ntap_2-3-12.png   pcg_2-3-12.png   pfg_2-3-12.png  

slb_2-3-12.png   stj_2-3-12.png   symc_2-3-12.png  

urbn_2-3-12.png   wpo_2-3-12.png  
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Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Last edited by isatrader; Mar 7, 2012 at 2:59pm.
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