Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by lplate GOLD Thanks for your view. That's where we differ, I think, as I think the distinctness ...

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Old Dec 4, 2011, 2:18pm   #129
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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Originally Posted by lplate View Post
GOLD
Thanks for your view. That's where we differ, I think, as I think the distinctness and high volume of the lower high warns of the start of Stage 3. $GOLD
I can see your interpretation, though, that Stage 3 is not confirmed, as pp36-37 says you need a flatter MA . The "perfect illustration" chart ICH implies a lower low as well, but you don't get that, nor the flatter MA, until part-way through the Stage 3.
So, as I said, I think the daily (which I don't think works well) suggests a move back to 1600, which is not a lower low. Would you think 1600, not a lower low, means it is still in stage 2?
PS, yes the fed gov said it needed to vet my posting, so that is why it was delayed a day. I guess they don't like links to any website which is a potential advertiser.
Thanks lplate, I'm not sure I agree totally. I think due to the lack of reference material that it's hard to gauge exact points of change between the stages. It's always a judgement call and there is some overlap. If you look at the reference examples of Stage 3A from the Global Trend Alert newsletter that I did earlier in the thread here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1700112 then you might see why I think it's not 3A yet.

For me to be 3A it needs to start trading below the 30 week MA for a bit back towards the recent major low and make an initial lower low on the weekly below 1667, which would then cause the MA to start flattening out. Until then I still personally consider it Stage 2B - Getting late in uptrend. Watch carefully. But still a hold with a long term stop below the major recent low. But that's my interpretation from what I've read, but the point of this thread is to discuss the method, so I'm open if you think I've got it wrong.
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Old Dec 4, 2011, 3:52pm   #130
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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If you look at the reference examples of Stage 3A from the Global Trend Alert newsletter that I did earlier in the thread here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tech...ml#post1700112 then you might see why I think it's not 3A yet.

For me to be 3A it needs to start trading below the 30 week MA for a bit back towards the recent major low and make an initial lower low on the weekly below 1667, which would then cause the MA to start flattening out. Until then I still personally consider it Stage 2B - Getting late in uptrend. Watch carefully.
Thanks isa
I'm not cherry-picking, but I think the DHR example of Stage 3 is the nearest to the Gold pattern.
http://tinyurl.com/c2hbzh3
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Old Dec 4, 2011, 4:01pm   #131
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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Thanks isa
I'm not cherry-picking, but I think the DHR example of Stage 3 is the nearest to the Gold pattern.
http://tinyurl.com/c2hbzh3
Funnily enough, that's the one why I think it's not Stage 3A yet. As on DHR the price is below a flat MA, the relative performance vs S&P 500 is weakening, it's testing the previous low and is trading below the 1 year trendline. But with gold, price is above a rising MA, it's relative performance vs S&P 500 is still strengthening, it's above it's one year trendline and price is over a weeks average true range (ATR(200)) from the nearest low. So different characteristics imo.

I've attached a marked up comparison chart so you can see where I see the key differences. But I think the trendline helps to emphasise the difference I see between them.
Attached Thumbnails
stage_comparison_4_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 4, 2011, 8:46pm   #132
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Attached is the latest US 30 Year Treasuries chart. It made a lower high two weeks ago and sold off a bit last week before bouncing at resistance on Friday. It's another transitional one. I personally rate it as 2B still until the short term trend line is broken. But as we've discovered the transitional stage is subjective, so it could also be classed as 3A and I believe the book recommends taking partial profits at this point and leaving the remaining stop under the most recent major low. So under 135 I think for that.

This is a very important chart imo, as US 30 Year Treasuries have a strong negative correlation with the S&P 500. So if the lower high holds, then it's good news for equities.
Attached Thumbnails
us-30-year-treasuries_2_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 5, 2011, 9:49am   #133
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread Attached is the latest S&P 500 charts. After to listening to Stan's interview from the 12th November I realised that my rating of a possible Stage 1a on the weekly was too early as he classified it as Stage 4b-

So that means that it is showing that it's late in the downtrend, with a weak technical pattern. And it is too soon to consider buying long positions that you want to hold on to yet and is instead still a short term traders market for the time being with a negative bias still.

I've used the dollar index to measure relative performance and the pattern vs the dollar is much the same as the price action. Cumulative volume on the recent spike down managed to stay above the moving average, so a positive sign. And also closing trendline support on the performance chart also held up to make a higher low.
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spx_weekly_2_12_11.png  
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Old Dec 5, 2011, 12:04pm   #134
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread What I'd really like to do, is to create a spreadsheet that lists the stages of every major stock and update it maybe once a month as it will be a fairly big task. My focus is the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Commodities, so if anyone wants to do it for the FTSE 100 or FTSE 350 then that would help.

I think to keep it simple and because we aren't experts on the exact mini stages, it would need to be only the four major stages, so it would not include A or B stages or the + and - symbols. So it would just be Stages 1, 2, 3 or 4 - which would then give a good overview of the market and a general watchlist to drill down further into with deeper analysis. It could even be used as a breadth indicator.

Any thoughts on this?
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Old Dec 5, 2011, 2:31pm   #135
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

i quite happy to do the ftse350, but may interpret things wrong...
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Old Dec 6, 2011, 12:54pm   #136
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader started this thread I've been watching Google (GOOG) for the last few months as it is starting to look interesting to me as it is approaching the 4 year highs. If you look at the price by volume on the side of the point and figure chart you'll see that the majority of volume resistance is now below it. So this could be a good breakout candidate for the method if it breaks to new 4 year highs as it's been consolidating for the last two years. One for the watchlist I think.
Attached Thumbnails
goog_weekly_5_12_11.png   goog_weekly_rs_5_12_11.png   goog_monthly_5_12_11.png  

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