Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

This is a discussion on Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by theblackmamba not sure if it interests you, but have gone through about the top1000 uk shares this ...

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Old Nov 28, 2011, 5:52pm   #73
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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not sure if it interests you, but have gone through about the top1000 uk shares this afternoon, and these are the ones i found interesting..

long aey aht aie arm avon bkg car cct cpp dia fenr ged hyr inppipr itm jlf pay phnx prv pure qq ror weir wtm.

short aal abc afr ashm bba bee blnd blt boy bram brby brwm bvic cbg ccc chw clln cne cpp cscg csrt dcg dia dtc dvo efm enq fcs fdsa fgp fum gpor gss has hfd hl hlma hmso hoc hri iem ihg imi inf ipf itrk jdw jmf kaz kmr lad land lse lsp mgcr mjw mks mpi mrc mul nex nii oml pmo rsl rsw safe sdl sgro shb sks smdr smin srp sthr stob sxs tem tmpl tpk utg vct wpp xar...
What you need to do to filter them further is sort the sectors by relative strength. Attached is the list as of 25/11 sorted by strongest sector at the top to weakest at the bottom since the October low.
Attached Thumbnails
sector_rs_25_11_11.png  
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 5:55pm   #74
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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wat you think to ppc? on weekly broke out stage 1?, then pulled back, now looking to go off again.
only thing is breakout volume was low?
Poor relative strength, a lot of resistance to work through and no 2x the 4 week average volume increase on the breakout. I'd say it's now in Stage 1B. It might go higher, but it doesn't meet the methods requirements.

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do you find uk volume on breakouts work? i must admit in all years i traded ive ignored it as there not a lot of it in general unlike usa shares
US stocks are easier to see the volume changes on the straight volume chart like your previous good example, but I think it still works on UK stocks, but because of the thinner volumes I use cumulative force index to decipher it, by looking for a build in volume above it's moving average and positive divergence.
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 6:00pm   #75
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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I noticed both of your picks are stocks that have fallen hard like the market has and so have resistance to fight through still. A big component of the method relative performance versus the market. You want to buy strength and sell weakness, so I'll give you an example of one of my current trades to illustrate this. The market trend was down when I bought this, so it breaks the rules a bit, but I think it's a good example of a good relative strength stock breaking out and currently retesting the breakout level. It might fail because the market is still negative, but has potential to move higher because of the size of the base and lack of resistance above it.
must admit as a rule i do prefer the rolls royce type chart to the aml, atk eg i gave you..
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 6:11pm   #76
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

i not doing too well so far......lol
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 6:17pm   #77
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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i not doing too well so far......lol
I think you're picking it up quite quickly. I've been working on my understanding of it for nearly a year now and I still keep making mistakes. I also need to sort myself out a check list to look at and am planning on rereading the book again this month as the shorting section seems particularly important to understand at the moment.
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 6:25pm   #78
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

just re read thread again.. i see you look at about 1000 shares. do you look through each chart daily or have a system for narrowing everything down.
unfortunately the software i use doesnt have usa sectors so will have to think that through as def think as far as increase in volume is concerened usa shares are a lot better...
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 6:57pm   #79
 
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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just re read thread again.. i see you look at about 1000 shares. do you look through each chart daily or have a system for narrowing everything down.
unfortunately the software i use doesn't have usa sectors so will have to think that through as def think as far as increase in volume is concerned usa shares are a lot better...
As the method is based on weekly charts, you get a fair amount of time to go through the charts as it can take months for setup to develop. A simple manual scan with the weinstein chart setup and you can see charts of interest fairly quickly. You'll be able to do it after a while of using the charts.

I'm also a huge fan of point and figure charts, and stockcharts.com has the best P&F charts and a great stock scan filter here: Stock Scan: Predefined Scans - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com which you can easily find stocks of interest.

I only tend to trade 6-10 stocks at the same time, so I don't have to look at everything everyday. But I try to focus on the major indexes, futures, currencies and commodities everyday, as the indexes and sectors make up around 70 to 80% of individual stocks moves each day.

Focus on relative performance if you are using scanning software to filter the market. A simple scan would be stocks outperforming the market and above their 30 week MA, plus a rising 30 week MA. You can filter that further by organizing the sectors by strength, the stock performance vs the sector, and then versus other candidates. You should then get a fairly small list to look at.
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Old Nov 28, 2011, 8:25pm   #80
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Re: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

thanks for your help today
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