Is Web Based Trading Safe?

This is a discussion on Is Web Based Trading Safe? within the Techies Corner forums, part of the Trading Career category; Originally Posted by Nowler I had about 180 in December... Then again... my hit rate was woeful! So yeah, I ...

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Old Jan 14, 2018, 3:51am   #16
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I had about 180 in December...
Then again... my hit rate was woeful!

So yeah, I better be careful.
IMHO you have a habit of raising peripheral issues that are frankly not directly important to your success as a trader. Long term success in trading is not about knowledge or systems but in behaviour modification. We are not wired to be successful in trading and it is why the failure rate is so high. Behavioural change is not a natural process. It requires effort, discipline and a program. For example, it is said an average person will fail to meet the same set goal at least 10 times in a row. It means behavioural change doesn't come just by willingness and mindset.

As I mentioned to you before, you have done about 180 trades in December. Have you identified what you need to change from that outcome? if you can't get your win rate up, you will not succeed in trading. Trading is not easy and "you" is the primary hurdle - not web based system or brokers.
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 12:46pm   #17
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Long term success in trading is not about knowledge or systems but in behaviour modification. We are not wired to be successful in trading and it is why the failure rate is so high. Behavioural change is not a natural process. It requires effort, discipline and a program... behavioural change doesn't come just by willingness and mindset.
great point there

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it is said an average person will fail to meet the same set goal at least 10 times in a row
Not sure what you meant by this bit..

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if you can't get your win rate up, you will not succeed in trading.
Nowler has less than a 50% win rate, but also an average loser that's bigger than his average winner - the combination of both resulting in a losing period: post2993994
Are you not a believer that increasing the average size of the winner could be equally as important?

Last edited by Kaeso; Jan 14, 2018 at 4:07pm.
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 6:31pm   #18
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Originally Posted by Brumby View Post
IMHO you have a habit of raising peripheral issues that are frankly not directly important to your success as a trader. Long term success in trading is not about knowledge or systems but in behaviour modification. We are not wired to be successful in trading and it is why the failure rate is so high. Behavioural change is not a natural process. It requires effort, discipline and a program. For example, it is said an average person will fail to meet the same set goal at least 10 times in a row. It means behavioural change doesn't come just by willingness and mindset.

As I mentioned to you before, you have done about 180 trades in December. Have you identified what you need to change from that outcome? if you can't get your win rate up, you will not succeed in trading. Trading is not easy and "you" is the primary hurdle - not web based system or brokers.
Thanks for the input mate. It's appreciated, as always.

I understand where you are coming from but you make it sound like a bad thing. It would be bad if I was to keep jumping around to non-trading related things but I am not. Especially in this instance. At a basic level, this thread is an attempted move away from Spread-betting, or at the very least, a move away from outlandish spreads which make having a successful trade more difficult (variable spreads essentially move the goalposts and outlandish spreads move it more dramatically). Surely you are not saying this is frivolous?

I understand that behavioural change is paramount to being a successful trader. I understand that behavioural change is difficult to achieve and is likely why the failure rate in trading is so high. But will behavioural modification alone make me a successful trader? That's a rhetorical question because we all know the answer is no, behavioural modification alone will not make one a successful trader.

Another potential diamond that came from this thread involves the other point you raised. You asked me, from the 180 trades placed in December, what did I learn from them. Answer: That I am likely placing far too many trades! This feeds back into this thread, in that, having to pay £1 per pip instead of the 1 cent per pip at my current broker means it takes the demo feel away. Moving to my mini live account with my current broker from a demo account was great because it allowed me to work on my psych. But then after a few months, the mini live account began to feel like a demo again because the money involved was so low. Paying £1 per pip will almost definitely dramatically help cut out the vast majority of those hail Mary trades - AKA trading excessively.

I just want to point out. I am enquiring about IG... I am not ready to move to such an account size just yet. BUT when I am ready to move, I won't have to think about it as much, because I am doing the thinking now. Yes, I'll run over things again when the time comes in case anything has changed or whatever, but most of the leg work will already have been done (I'm doing it now).
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 7:53pm   #19
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btw on a side note Nowler, if you work out the round trip cost of trading the real market on certain instruments i.e. smaller spread but including commission, often the SB spread is creating pretty much an equivalent charge to that
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 8:53pm   #20
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btw on a side note Nowler, if you work out the round trip cost of trading the real market on certain instruments i.e. smaller spread but including commission, often the SB spread is creating pretty much an equivalent charge to that
Hi Kaeso,
Perhaps. You very well may be correct.

It's not just about the cost though. Take the monetary value out of the spread for a minute and look at the width difference between a tight-spread broker and a loose-spread broker. From a technical analysis point of view the broker with wider spreads and more widening during volatile events is going to be more difficult to deal with.

Stops and take profits for example; hitting your stop when price wasn't even close to reaching that level. In regards to take profits, price could reach or even pass my TP level but because the spreads widened, the TP was not triggered and no profits were realised.
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 10:55pm   #21
 
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Nowler, in what instruments are you experiencing these outlandish spreads? How much are they widening, when are they widening and how does it effect your trade?
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 11:29pm   #22
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i guess forex?

https://www.fxcm.com/uk/why-fxcm/exe...rical-spreads/
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 11:51pm   #23
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Nowler, in what instruments are you experiencing these outlandish spreads? How much are they widening, when are they widening and how does it effect your trade?
I can't remember the specifics. The first one that comes to mind was on a SGD pair where I was trading TA and trading breakouts of levels that I was identifying. This one was an entry order that got triggered because of a significant widening of the spread which triggered my entry. When trading short TF's, widening of spreads make stops/take profit orders more difficult to work with.

Outlandish might be a bit strong. What I was alluding to was this broker not being the most competitive (therefore more TA related difficulty). And spreads being a pain in the rectum.
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Old Jan 14, 2018, 11:54pm   #24
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Not sure what you meant by this bit..
It is said that 67 % of a Near Year resolution set is broken within the first week. Studies indicate that on average it takes 10 successive attempts to break through.
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Nowler has less than a 50% win rate, but also an average loser that's bigger than his average winner - the combination of both resulting in a losing period: post2993994
Are you not a believer that increasing the average size of the winner could be equally as important?
Getting the win rate up is easier. Getting the average size up is more difficlut. Sequencing is important. Refer to my comments to Nowler which I will explain.
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Old Jan 15, 2018, 1:15am   #25
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I understand where you are coming from but you make it sound like a bad thing. It would be bad if I was to keep jumping around to non-trading related things but I am not. Especially in this instance. At a basic level, this thread is an attempted move away from Spread-betting, or at the very least, a move away from outlandish spreads which make having a successful trade more difficult (variable spreads essentially move the goalposts and outlandish spreads move it more dramatically). Surely you are not saying this is frivolous?
Do you have concrete evidence that your SB broker is screwing you with the spreads? If you recall, I had previously warn you to stay away from exotic pairs. If I am not mistaken did you not trade the CHFHKD pair on 29/12/2017? There is a reason why we stay away from trading during the last two weeks of December because of low liquidity and hence spreads will naturally widen. You have the habit of trading non majors and complain of spreads. I can tell you last year there was once I experienced a 20 pips negative slippage on GBPUSD because of volatility. Spreads do widen during price discovery in the market.

SB brokers just mirror the market plus their add on. Stay away from exotics and you will have less problem with spreads. Changing brokers won't solve your problem unless you change behaviour.

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Originally Posted by Nowler View Post
I understand that behavioural change is paramount to being a successful trader. I understand that behavioural change is difficult to achieve and is likely why the failure rate in trading is so high. But will behavioural modification alone make me a successful trader? That's a rhetorical question because we all know the answer is no, behavioural modification alone will not make one a successful trader.
Behavioural modification may not ultimately make you a successful trader but without behavioural modification you will never be a successful trader. There is a saying that trading is 80 % psychological. You may argue about the percentage but the point is ultimately your success or failure is you and how you behave and not the market or broker.

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Originally Posted by Nowler View Post
Another potential diamond that came from this thread involves the other point you raised. You asked me, from the 180 trades placed in December, what did I learn from them. Answer: That I am likely placing far too many trades! This feeds back into this thread, in that, having to pay £1 per pip instead of the 1 cent per pip at my current broker means it takes the demo feel away. Moving to my mini live account with my current broker from a demo account was great because it allowed me to work on my psych. But then after a few months, the mini live account began to feel like a demo again because the money involved was so low. Paying £1 per pip will almost definitely dramatically help cut out the vast majority of those hail Mary trades - AKA trading excessively.
I think there are two things in play based on your statements. You are in a hurry to prove that you can be successful. Unfortunately with each successive loss you end up engaging the market even more to recover. If I am not mistaken the number of trades you placed in December is probably the highest in any one month. Some might call this revenge trading. Secondly your attempt to explain away the poor performance from the excessive trades was due to their non importance in value is dangerously flawed. Moving up the value chain would only compound your problem not remove it as it would involve greater monetary impact. Your attempt at problem resolution is poorly considered.

In my previous posting to you on the same subject, I intentionally left out a detailed roadmap because I wanted to determine how you would approach the problem and in your thought process. I would first outline the premise of the solution and then a structure on how to deal with the problem.

Trading is skills based and because of skills it involve judgement, decisions and execution. In each of these areas, the opportunities for mistakes are always present. In order to improve your trade results an immediate opportunity is to pick the low hanging fruits and that is by reducing mistakes. Essentially we become better traders simply by making fewer mistakes and more likely than not improve your win rate. Hence I wanted you to examine your 180 trades for this very purpose but your comeback has given me nothing to work on.

So where do we go from here? I suggest you examine your trades along the following structure :
Judgement - # of trades based on majors and non majors; trade rationale with or without; trend, counter trend or range; et al
Decisions - Spontaneous or reactionary; with or without trade plan; averaging down; reverse trades; second attempt or third attempts. etc.
Execution - At market (chasing?); Limit in or stop in orders
They are not meant to be exhaustive but I do not know your trading approach and so they are simply suggestions to get a profile of your trading behaviour and where mistakes tend to originate.
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Old Jan 15, 2018, 2:22am   #26
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I can't remember the specifics. The first one that comes to mind was on a SGD pair where I was trading TA and trading breakouts of levels that I was identifying. This one was an entry order that got triggered because of a significant widening of the spread which triggered my entry. When trading short TF's, widening of spreads make stops/take profit orders more difficult to work with.

Outlandish might be a bit strong. What I was alluding to was this broker not being the most competitive (therefore more TA related difficulty). And spreads being a pain in the rectum.
There you go again - trading SGD on breakouts and complaining about spreads. Breakouts are typically dicey propositions. Linda Raschke even has a set up against breakouts named turtle soup because the Turtles trade breakouts but the failure is so frequent that there are short term trade opportunities against it.

Why are you trading SGD (plus breakout) and not expect a spread problem?
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Old Jan 15, 2018, 4:04pm   #27
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Nowler started this thread Thanks for taking the time to explain.

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Do you have concrete evidence that your SB broker is screwing you with the spreads? If you recall, I had previously warn you to stay away from exotic pairs. If I am not mistaken did you not trade the CHFHKD pair on 29/12/2017? There is a reason why we stay away from trading during the last two weeks of December because of low liquidity and hence spreads will naturally widen. You have the habit of trading non majors and complain of spreads. I can tell you last year there was once I experienced a 20 pips negative slippage on GBPUSD because of volatility. Spreads do widen during price discovery in the market.

SB brokers just mirror the market plus their add on. Stay away from exotics and you will have less problem with spreads. Changing brokers won't solve your problem unless you change behaviour.
I wasn't saying that my broker was acting shady. I was referring to them being far from competitive with their spreads. But yes, naturally I will have wider spreads outside of the majors. I would still like to move to a broker with narrower spreads, or none. But i'll shut up about it because my efforts would be better spent working on other more pressing matters, as you have pointed out.


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Behavioural modification may not ultimately make you a successful trader but without behavioural modification you will never be a successful trader. There is a saying that trading is 80 % psychological. You may argue about the percentage but the point is ultimately your success or failure is you and how you behave and not the market or broker.
I think you might be assuming that I am trying to blame my brokers spreads for all of my bad results? That is not what I am saying. I'm just saying that the spread is a nuisance to me and that less competitive spread infer a bigger nuisance. I am my biggest problem, by far!

Also just to be clear, when I post a new thread it doesn't mean that this is now my new priority. It might look like I am running around like a headless chicken, going from one thing to another like a child with ADHD. I am merely casting my nets and quite often the nets I cast here on T2W come in with gold nuggets, so of course this would be a popular place for me to come looking for answers. And I have A LOT of questions!

I ask a question here and then we pretty much get a peer reviewed discussion going. That's gold! It doesn't mean I will automatically agree/accept what was said but i'll listen to those who come forward with an informed opinion and give reasons for it. Then we have instances where someone will give their opinion and then someone else comes along and critiques that point of view and then we end up getting down to the nitty gritty, with evidence/support for said views. Then i'll weigh it up myself or else put it on the back burner until I know more and can make a better decision (T2W doesn't delete content as far as I know, so I can always come back to it). All the questions do on occasion cause cognitive overload i'll admit. I know I need to be more careful with that but the more I learn, the more questions I have. It's like an itch in my mind.

I guess you could kinda look at my frequent thread starting the same as writing a note in my pad so that I'll remember. Except when I write it here, I magically get answers I do still write things down in a pad of course. I don't come here with all my questions.


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I think there are two things in play based on your statements. You are in a hurry to prove that you can be successful. Unfortunately with each successive loss you end up engaging the market even more to recover. If I am not mistaken the number of trades you placed in December is probably the highest in any one month. Some might call this revenge trading. Secondly your attempt to explain away the poor performance from the excessive trades was due to their non importance in value is dangerously flawed. Moving up the value chain would only compound your problem not remove it as it would involve greater monetary impact. Your attempt at problem resolution is poorly considered.
In regards to your first point, there is a degree of urgency when it comes to me being successful. I have multiple reasons for wanting this to come to fruition sooner and one of them includes my interest in it all. I am excited to learn this, still. I want to learn more and more, hence my widespread threads varying in ends of the spectrum. I think we can safely say that I have been over trading though! And I think November had 200 trades also...I'll need to find how to pull up the stats for months other than the previous month but I'm pretty sure the number of trades decrease as we work back through the months from November back. Now that I think of it, I really ramped up the number of trades when I was after applying to that Prop firm. The had told me that their average trades per day per trader was 50. I ramped mine up then too (error). I never thought about that until now...

In regards to your second point here, maybe...
I'm just saying that playing with pennies for so long had made it feel like a demo and moving up in costs might be just what the doctor ordered. Maybe I need bigger losses to really "get it" or to give me that kick I need to make more changes...
Maybe the price that has to be paid is time, not money....


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In my previous posting to you on the same subject, I intentionally left out a detailed roadmap because I wanted to determine how you would approach the problem and in your thought process. I would first outline the premise of the solution and then a structure on how to deal with the problem.

Trading is skills based and because of skills it involve judgement, decisions and execution. In each of these areas, the opportunities for mistakes are always present. In order to improve your trade results an immediate opportunity is to pick the low hanging fruits and that is by reducing mistakes. Essentially we become better traders simply by making fewer mistakes and more likely than not improve your win rate. Hence I wanted you to examine your 180 trades for this very purpose but your comeback has given me nothing to work on.

So where do we go from here? I suggest you examine your trades along the following structure :
Judgement - # of trades based on majors and non majors; trade rationale with or without; trend, counter trend or range; et al
Decisions - Spontaneous or reactionary; with or without trade plan; averaging down; reverse trades; second attempt or third attempts. etc.
Execution - At market (chasing?); Limit in or stop in orders
They are not meant to be exhaustive but I do not know your trading approach and so they are simply suggestions to get a profile of your trading behaviour and where mistakes tend to originate.
I can't even remember why I took most of those trades. Even the first time you suggested I go back and populate them I remember thinking that I can't remember why I took each of them. Which feeds back into you telling me to build myself a trade plan and then stick to it.

My head is wrecked as I sit here typing this...I know your right...yet I am still going around in circles. I know this is me being the problem.

I have been talking with one of the other members here about my lack of routine and organisation. I am in the midst of a major turning point in my life which should promote dramatically better organisation and routine. So perhaps by the time I hit my 1 year point of trading in 4 months I will be fully settled in and rid of the exhausting nature of my current situation. Learning to trade is difficult at the best of times but I'm not the sharpest tool in the box and I have been struggling in general for quite some time. Not the best of combinations when trying to do something difficult.

I don't want that to sound like I'm pawning my mistakes off. Even objectively speaking, going from sedentary to a physically active lifestyle would likely improve one's situation. As too with going from long-term unemployment back to work...
I admit that some of these changes could have been started before now though.
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Last edited by Nowler; Jan 15, 2018 at 4:15pm. Reason: Spelling, as usual
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Old Jan 15, 2018, 10:45pm   #28
 
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Hi Nowler,
Brumby has made some excellent pointers for you. It's hard to see the wood from the trees when you start trading - I think that is true for all retail.
FWIW, my trading improved (and my p&l) when I started trading just using orders. I was actually forced into this because I went back to work in a full time job in a different time zone from my main markets. It's improved because it removes emotion and is based on analysis over longer timeframes. Sure some orders don't get hit and you might wish (briefly!) you placed your trade at market but overall it has benefitted me.
I also acknowledge that I will not become "rich" quickly with this method but at least I am not losing money!
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Old Jan 15, 2018, 10:57pm   #29
 
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So where do we go from here? I suggest you examine your trades along the following structure :
Judgement - # of trades based on majors and non majors; trade rationale with or without; trend, counter trend or range; et al
Decisions - Spontaneous or reactionary; with or without trade plan; averaging down; reverse trades; second attempt or third attempts. etc.
Execution - At market (chasing?); Limit in or stop in orders
They are not meant to be exhaustive but I do not know your trading approach and so they are simply suggestions to get a profile of your trading behaviour and where mistakes tend to originate.[/QUOTE]

To follow up the major nuggets from Brumby are quoted above.

I would also say don't give up either....your posts from what I have seen are refreshingly honest...but you do need to modify yourself. Recognition that trading is not a get rich quick scheme but a skill that needs constant honing through hard work...sadly.
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Old Jan 16, 2018, 6:47am   #30
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I can't even remember why I took most of those trades. Even the first time you suggested I go back and populate them I remember thinking that I can't remember why I took each of them. Which feeds back into you telling me to build myself a trade plan and then stick to it.

My head is wrecked as I sit here typing this...I know your right...yet I am still going around in circles. I know this is me being the problem.
2017 is gone and we are now into 2018. What is past is history, it is best to look forward by laying a foundation to build for the future.

I suggested you look into your December trades because I expected that you will have limited recall going even further back without the benefit of any trading plans. It is important that you are able to draw on some raw data to work on your discipline. At least group them into majors, non majors and others (non forex) and with or without trade rationale. If you can't remember then assume there is no rationale. It is important that you have situational awareness of your problem and that can only come from statistical evidence - not some abstract idea of where your problem might be. For example, if you have a predominant problem of not having a trade rationale before placing trades then it would suggest you are gambling, not trading. In turn it means your first rule is no trade if there is no trade rationale. Trade rationale doesn't exist in a vacuum and such consideration forces you to consider a trade plan. Discipline comes by way of a trade process, following a trade process enforces discipline; repeating the process builds a habit; and habits change behaviour. Behavioural modification do not happen because of a willing mindset. It has to be programmed. It is said, it takes 66 days of repeated process to develop that process into a habit. You have a major in psychology - presumably you should know more than me in this field.
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