Cashmaker's hot stocks and trading

cash-maker

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Welcome to Cashmaker's hot stocks and trading.

Thanks for comment and suggestion. Since I am new here, I do not realize I have to keep in one thread. Today I received notice from Webmaster relate to my multi-thread posting. In the future, I will keep in one thread. Sorry about the multi-thread before. Any comment and critique and suggestion are welcome
 
Comment on GMTN, buy signal.

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Attention GMTN tomorrow. GMTN today didn't go down under 20MA line, on the contrary, it met strong support on the 20MA line which is approximate $13 level. From I-watch, these day large institution activities found. From public info, I can not find any reason why Institution increase their holding, but there must be someting brewing. Don't forget GMTN will open a lot of new store during April and May, check their website.

http://www.gandermountain.com/storelocator/allstores.asp

So whenever the news about new store established out in either newspaper or magazine, it will attract more investor. This is a low float and strong FA company, any increase volume will push it much higher. My shorterm target is $15 in the next several weeks. These days showing no volume because people are worry about the 20MA support point, now it already establish, will see uptrend from now on.
 
Load back NGPS step by step.load 1k @21.88, seems sell off stop, very quiet on the Bid side.
 
Load back NGPS step by step.load 1k @21.88, seems sell off stop, very quiet on the Bi

Load back NGPS step by step.load 1k @21.88, seems sell off stop, very quiet on the Bid side.
 
In GEOI here for Oil price back. Market seems head to red.

In GEOI here for Oil price back. Market seems head to red.
Oil price shot up suddently.
 
Complete NGPS analysis, FA, TA, News... Strong Buy

Complete NGPS analysis, FA, TA, News... Strong Buy

NGPS designs, markets and sells high-precision global positioning systems (GPS), a leading GPS devices and technology company in the world, has contracts with US, Canada, EURO, China, Indian, and more.

FA analysis:

Very solid company with PE ratio 16 and high growth margin and growth revenue. According to Quicken Stock evaluator, NGPS’s Growth trends, Financial Health, Management Performance, Market Multiples and Intrinsic value are all the highest ranking. Earnings Growth 249.50%, Revenue Growth 40.90%, ROE 39.01%. Very low debt with high Asset/Liability ratio which is 3.445. Low float, only 3.5 M float and 20% are holding by Institution.

TA analysis:

the bottom already established at $16 and have strong support at 50-Day Moving Average line. From last week, volume increased to almost 2M per day compared to its total floating 3.5M. From RSI and W%R ration implies the oversold in the last several months. From Lycos I-watch 1-week graphic http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/ly...cker?t=NGPS&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=5

Showing strong buy support. Moreover, Reuters April 1st updated the Analyst Recommendations and Revisions for NGPS to 2 which is outperform as well as Reuter gives low risk alert.
http://www.investor.reuters.com/Com...=/stocks/professionalanalysis/recommendations

Reason why people pay attention to it:
1. NGPS was listed in Wall Street News Alert's U.S. Hot Stock Highlights, March 11, 2005
2. Also “Bellwether Report Is Keeping a Close Watch on NGPS, BKST, UFPT and ANTP” on Market Wire, 28 March.
3. NovAtel Inc. Awarded Contract for SBAS Equipment for Indian GAGAN Program on March 8th, 2005
4. NGPS undergoing NAVY big contract: http://www.eps.gov/spg/DON/NAVAIR/N00421/N00421-05-T-0095/SynopsisP.html
5.Mar 10 reported very strong earning as well as good guidance in 2005: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050310/105192_1.html


Reason why it fall from $53 to $17? This is due to one major holder CMC electronic sold their shares. However, CMC already finished their sell off. Why I imply the CMC almost finished their sell off:

From NGPS SEC filing
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001027539&owner=include

CMC Eletronic INC:
Holding 3/18/2005 875,000
Sold 3/18/2005 408,939
Sold 1/11/2005 3,170,161
Sold 1/07/2005 1,462,161


CMC purchased 12/30/2004 accumulative holding: 4,694,500 shares, sold 4,622,322

These simple number shows CMC has only 875K in hand and they are not planning to sell at current price level (if they want to sell, they must sell on Mar 18 together with those 400K. Keep these 875K shares will let CMC still be one of NGPS holder and partner). Actually CMC is also a GPS device producer partnered with NGPS for a long time, in CMC’s press release in 1998 (http://www.cmcelectronics.ca/En/About/contact_us_main_en.html), they mentioned that the Novatel is the leader in this area and their products are sophisticated and compatable. Since CMC accumulate almost 5M NGPS shares at the average price around $17 per shares, they sold 2M shares at $53 and 3M shares at $42 and 400K at $24. This profit taken action brought CMC total more than 300 Million proceed compared to CMC’s enterprise value only 400 Million which means CMC increase its value with 6 month by 100%. What a big deal to CMC.

NGPS price dropped at the beginning of this year is purely due to CMC sell off, nothing to do with the company’s business, so this stock is definitely oversold. Today Apr 5, it went down a little bit due to the profit taken since it has up for 5 straight days. Safe entry level here at $21 with low downside risk, will see at least $25 in the next couple weeks together with 120K shares short covered. NGPS has same trend and pattern as ANTP, gradually goes back to its underlying value after heavily sold.


Short term target $25 and midterm target $30.
 
Some thought about NGPS

Some thought about NGPS
FA: don't need me to explain it again: one word--great!

TA: These two weeks uptrend from the end of Mar to today, its graphic established a Cup curve. According to the wave theory, this is a pop out signal. Also today's low volume give me some release, not showing block sell off.

The only one concern is when CMC finishing their 895K shares? Many peopel from thelion memtion that CMC already dumped their 895K on 4/1 and 4/4. On Yahoo, some people said EDGAR reported a FORM 144 to SEC for their 895K sold. Since I do not have EDGAR access, I can not confirm this. I know you guys don't like "rumor", this just for reference. Need to consider its probabbility, when you know the truth, it is too late.

Many investors already paid attention to this good stock, but worry about the CMC selling again. If people know CMC done, will rush in and push to pirce to $30. My comment is that: it is very likely that CMC done their sell, observed from 4/1 and 4/4 total volume close to 5M. I remember clearly these two day's trading somebody sold a lot of shares becasue of everytime the price went up to >22, it met strong sell presure. Hope CMC finished its sell off (although I mentioned that CMC might keep this 895K for partnership. Just my guess).

The 50M support point is close to today's close price, on 20.5 today we can easily see large buy order to support it. The downside for this stock is small and the upside is huge.

Hope it will do great tomorrow. I still keep my target: short term $25 and midterm $30
 
Add more NGPS here 21.38, together with yesterday 20.6, nive profit here. ANTP just b

Add more NGPS here 21.38, together with yesterday 20.6, nive profit here. ANTP just break $2 jump this morning. MM 's play coming.
 
News: Analysts tracking NGPS on WSJ

News: Analysts tracking NGPS on WSJ

Coverage initiated On NovAtel Inc.

686 words
7 April 2005
M2 Presswire


Today the Bellwether Report has identified a company that our analysts will be tracking over the ensuing weeks. NovAtel Inc. (NASDAQ:NGPS), came out with a significant corporate development this month, causing a positive market correction. For a full report on the below mentioned company feel free to visit www.bellwetherreport.com for a free 30 day no obligation trial.

"Tastes like Texas. Feels like home." That is Lubys new advertising push. Their strategy is to put the focus back on their Texas roots and core Texas markets.

A family style restaurant, Lubys opened its first cafeteria in San Antonio at the corner of Presa and College Streets in 1947.

Then Luby's opens its first cafeteria in... To view the full unbiased report on feel free to visit our site. All articles are available for review under the Todays Articles Section. No credit Card Needed!! The Bellwether Report will continue scanning the markets for true emerging growth opportunities that will show subscribers optimal entry points with profitable exit points. If you are interested in receiving more information on NovAtel Inc. (NASDAQ:NGPS), feel free to sign up for a 1 month complimentary subscription to the #1 online investment resource www.bellwetherreport.com .

All material herein was prepared by the Bellwetherreport.com , (Bellwether) based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by Bellwether to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. Bellwether is not a licensed broker, broker dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. Bellwether may receive compensation in cash or shares from independent third parties or from the companies mentioned.

Bellwethers affiliates, officers, directors and employees may also have bought or may buy the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit in the event those shares rise in value. Market commentary provided by Jay Lee.

Bellwether will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment of the market.

This release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended and such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. "Forward-looking statements" describe future expectations, plans, results, or strategies and are generally preceded by words such as "may", "future", "plan" or "planned", "will" or "should", "expected," "anticipates", "draft", "eventually" or "projected". You are cautioned that such statements are subject to a multitude of risks and uncertainties that could cause future circumstances, events, or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including the risks that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, and other risks identified in a companies' annual report on Form 10-K or 10-KSB and other filings made by such company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward-looking statements included herein, and not place undue reliance on such statements. The forward-looking statements in this release are made as of the date hereof and Bellwether undertakes no obligation to update such statements.

M2 Communications Ltd disclaims all liability for information provided within M2 PressWIRE. Data prepared by named party/parties. Further information on M2 PressWIRE can be obtained at http://www.presswire.net on the world wide web. Inquiries to [email protected].

Document MTPW000020050407e1470043a
 
NGPS been heavily shorted.

NGPS been heavily shorted.

From the volume since last Tuesday (the day that started down side), there has been 6M shared trade, over 50% shares be shorted. I am sure this is not a company that the shorter can bring the price down (CMC did not short). Solid business, with many potential contracts going, has worldwide business, has high growth rate and high ROE. Its priced tanked from $22.95 last week is due to the shorted and CMC sell off fear. But I can tell you, CMC will not sell the 800K shares (at least recently). Take a look at CMC's press and Novatel's press, these two companies are partner in many projects and products. CMC believe NGPS is a leading company in GPS products in the future (from CMC's previous press). If I were CMC, won't sell the current holding shares, two reasons: 1. not much marginal profit compared the 400M already profit. 2. To keep the business relationship with NGPS, be a major holding investor is a good choice.

Do not think thoese shorter can bash a good company down to too much undervalue. Why they don't do this to Walmart or IBM? Becasue the floating is too huge. The only reason shorter can do this to NGPS becasue its low 3.5M shares. But this short can not hold long, any contract news or upgraded news come out or whatever, the shorter will cover and the price will fly to the roof. I believe those who short this stock are watching this stock second by second, worry about any triger that bumps it up.

Once again, I am not pumping this stock, if I want to pump, why not pick a homeland security samll stock to pump. I just share my analysis about the company's background and future.
 
My new researched aggresive portfolio: ODSY CSH CGPI GLT KOMG AEY AGII GPX IFC STFC.

My new researched aggresive portfolio: ODSY CSH CGPI GLT KOMG AEY AGII GPX IFC STFC.
I use my model and filter to get these result, but remember I am a FA guy, not look at the TA too much. But now is not a good time to load since market trend is not clear. Actually it is good to play option these days or swing due to the up and down game. Will give more detail analysis about the stocks that I pick in the portfolio later.
 
NGPS will see much higher recently, from my TA analysis, the next target is $23. Don'

NGPS will see much higher recently, from my TA analysis, the next target is $23. Don't sell your shares here so cheap. Of course I will hold some for 25. It had a little bit down just now becasue of the market red. Don't worry about this stock, not much downside risk now. Buy it and hold. I strongly don't think CMC will sell their shares.
 
NGPS @ 17 strong support

NGPS @ 17 strong support

Actually I don't want to comment on this stock again. You all know how crappy the market is and we can not do much about it. Definitely I am strongly holding this stock. What I would like to say is if you want to earn some quick money, this is it. NGPS been shorted sell from above $20 and seems MM play this one for the reason of market now. Everytime market up a little bit, the stock up alittle bit. Before that the MM play this stock with ANTP, now it change to market. Market will be rebounce next week and all the shorter will cover. This stock can fly several dollars a day and now is the bottom bottom. If you are finding a stock to trade at the bottom, this is it. I am holding it tight, won't sell it under $25. YMYD, don't put all your money into one basket.
 
NGPS see some correction today also, oversold and shorted together with market last w

NGPS see some correction today also, oversold and shorted together with market last week, undervalued company and good business sector. Due to ANTP plunged last friday, it has some rebounce today. Although SNHY correct almost 2 dollars today, I am afraid its downtrend recently , very similar to ANTP and NGPS previous downtrend after surge to yearly high. AIRT should hold or buy at this level.Downside risk for NGPS and ANTP is lower than SNHY. INCX and TASR, don't get in at this moment, INCX down to its IPO last year, but it has some trouble with its business and management team, it will announce first quarter earning on Apr 28th. TASR still struggles with its law suit and some forbiden using TASAR guns, some rumor about the further people get killed by TASAR gun. But INCX and TASR can be in the watching list.It will have earning announcement tomorrow.

Tomorrow and wednesday have some important report and earning, keep an eye on them.
 
NGPS contract with NAVY coming. From daily candle chart, NGPS ready to take off. Two

NGPS contract with NAVY coming. From daily candle chart, NGPS ready to take off. Two green candle on the bottom, I see the price tunnel is between 16 and 23, now it is heading north. I am still waiting for those who short it and not covered , from the volume so far since Monday, seems the shorter still holding the short. Market is doing good now and don't forget NGPS has another undergoing contract with NAVY, I believe it is very possible that NGPS will get the contract with NAVY, no competitors so far, only several days to go. Once contract announce, the pirce should shot up at least 2 dollars. Info as follow:

Original Archive Date: Apr 26, 2005
Current Archive Date: Apr 26, 2005

The Patuxent River, Naval Air Warfare Center has a requirement to procure a Inertial Maesurement Unit. This notice of intend to contract on an other than full and open competition basis with Novatel Inc, Calgary, Canada.


http://www.eps.gov/spg/DON/NAVAIR/N00421/N00421-05-T-0095/SynopsisP.html
 
next play: TZOO bottom established , I was worried it will go down more this morning,

next play: TZOO bottom established , I was worried it will go down more this morning, so I shorted it above 32,covered 31.3. Now it seems volume halted, should see some rebounce soon. I am in here 31. 4
 
close to 1M volume, shorter will cover before the market close, everyone predict tomo

close to 1M volume, shorter will cover before the market close, everyone predict tomorow will be a good day, so it is the last chance for the shorter to cover. Half an hour to go, let's see how TZOO jump.
 
Analysis on CD:

Analysis on CD:

Cendant operate in five segments: Hospitality (e.g. Ramada, Days Inn, Howard Johnson), Real Estate (e.g. Century 21, Coldwell Banker), Vehicle Services (e.g. Avis Group Holdings), Financial Services (e.g. tax preparation, credit card info.), and Travel Distribution.

RAMADA and Days INN are typical cheap hotel nationwide. In NY area, Ramada is pretty popular for low rate hotel. From economy POW, just like ebay and walmart, when people want to save money, they will choose cheap price products. If you buy house, you must know what Century 21 is.

The company recently spinoff of its mortgage and fleet businesses to shareholders through a distribution of PHH Corp. stock. The spinoff is in keeping with the company's plans to focus on the travel industry. Cendant had been shopping its mortgage business for some time in order to remove the volatility associated with interest-rate movements.

Absent the mortgage business, management has lowered its earnings guidance to $1.35-$1.40 a share, on sales of $17.4 million $18.1 million. The April 25 has earning out, which is 0.24/share, this is after lower the earning guidance, so the earning will be right on target, or barely beat.

From FA POW, belong to mid cap with 20B Market Cap. Cendant to post 15% year-over-year bottom-line growth. 11.54 P/E ratio with 11.83 forward P/E, the diluted EPS is due to the Absent the mortgage business. High institution holding and low agency cost with large dividend pay out, 0.04% insider holding. little 0.72% short interest. 77.60% Earnings Growth: 8.80% Revenue Growth: 12.075 book value per share, but the concern is its debt to equity ration:1.587. Seems their business sector is in travel and real estate, the D/E ratio is not very high.

Fresh off its acquisition of Orbitz, the number two Internet booking company, it continues to extend its presence via numerous smaller acquisitions, such as London-based Gullivers Travel Associates and Octupus Travel Group Ltd. Also, CD named former Priceline COO Mitch Truwitt, to be president of its travel group.

The development of the growing online travel segment to help CD get things back on track in 2006 and to produce healthy gains out to in the next 2-3 years. The stock holds above-average long-term appeal and good timeline.

TA analysis: RSI touch the 20 line, almost 52 week low, volume is picking up this year with average 3,777,772 volume. Under 20, 50, 100MA line. See Bottom and support at 19 level.

Short term target >20, 2-3 year targe :40-60
 
Ebay been oversold recently.

Ebay been oversold recently.
eBay's current Price Target is $77 (+41% from the 2004 Target of $55 and +144% from the 04/22/05 price of $31.51). This dramatic rise in the Target is the result of a +35% increase in the equity base and a +4% increase in the price/equity multiple.


http://cnnfn.investor.reuters.com/ReportDetails.aspx?docid=20561334&sId=1

Ebay oversold recently

Although it has a little bit problem by increasing commision fee, it is growing company and with small competitors (overstock.com is small relative to ebay).


Standing Up To a Giant


Ebay aims to conquer China. Jack Ma has his "ants" doing handstands to repel the American invasion.

Ebay has conquered online auctioning, racking up $778 million in profit last year on a transaction volume of $34 billion. But Ebay won't stay on top unless it also conquers what eventually will be the world's largest market for online goods:China. Ebay bought its way into China in 2002, holds half of a $1 billion market and will spend $100 million this year to bolster its presence there. China is a "must win" and "is likely to be the defining measure of business success on the Net," Ebay Chief Meg Whitman told Wall Street analysts in early February. "A bunch of small competitors are nipping at our heels."

Jack Ma is more than a mere ankle-biter. Ma runs the Taobao consumer site, the biggest homegrown rival to Ebay in China. Though it didn't start up until a year after Ebay arrived, Taobao has quickly gobbled up 41% of China's online auction sales, compared with Ebay's 53%; it has 4 million registered users, gaining on Ebay's claim of 10 million customers in the country. To take on the decidedly American presence of Ebay, Taobao--Mandarin for "searching for treasure"--plays up its local staff and an all-China focus; its online moderators use screen names from characters in famous Chinese kung fu novels. Most important, Taobao doesn't charge sellers a cut, as Ebay does.

Ma's core business is Alibaba, the business-to-business Web auction site he's been building since the Internet craze of the late 1990s.Now at $68 million in annual sales, Alibaba competes locally with the longer-established Global Sources. Like Taobao, Alibaba offers basic service free of charge but gets revenue from 85,000 members who pay $250 to $10,000 a year for extra services such as personalized Web pages and accreditation.

Alibaba's main site is devoted to in-China trade, and a second site handles trade with companies in the rest of the world. So naturally Ma must keep his eye on the Ebay juggernaut, which is aimed at both consumer and business users.

The Taobao site is "a firewall on the consumer side against Ebay coming after Alibaba," says Jason Brueschke, a sell-side analyst with Pacific Growth Equities in San Francisco. Setting up Taobao "was defensive at first," Ma concedes. "But now we are going after them."

In the combined office for the two businesses in Hangzhou, two hours' drive south of Shanghai, he is brash: "We want to be the world's largest consumer site."

Toppling Ebay is a bold (if not suicidal) ambition, and Ma tells his staff it requires a different perspective. Ebay looks less fearsome when you're upside down, he argues, so new employees are encouraged to learn how to do a handstand. It's going to take more than that. Ebay, with $3.3 billion a year in revenue, expects overseas sales to eclipse its U.S. business in two years. It now is the dominant auction site in Germany, France and Australia, crushing local rivals or buying them; it leads in Korea and Singapore; and it just launched in Malaysia, the Philippines and India. It is considering Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

But Ebay's Whitman says China is top priority. China's population of Net users, likely to surpass 100 million this year, is second only to that of the U.S. and may double in two years. Taobao and Ebay "are fighting tooth and nail," says Victor Koo, who runs China portal Sohu. "If Ebay wants to be a global consumer site, it needs China."

And China is a special case, Ma argues."Ebay may be a shark in the ocean, but I am a crocodile in the Yangtze River. If we fight in the ocean, we lose--but if we fight in the river, we win."

At 40, Ma is known respectfully around Alibaba as "Grandfather," having formed China's first Internet company in 1995, about the time Jeff Bezos was starting Amazon.com in the U.S. That year Ma, who'd learned English as a youth hanging out at a tourist hotel and offering free guided tours to foreign guests, got to the U.S. as an interpreter for a trade delegation. He visited friends in Seattle and learned about the Internet.

After some early ups and downs with Web startups back home, he was able to raise $25 million in 1999 from Goldman Sachs, Softbank of Japan and others to form Alibaba. Today that business clears $5 billion a year in transactions (Ebay's size,as a pay site,in 2000).

Ebay entered China in 2002 by paying $30 million for a one-third stake in Eachnet, an auction site set up three years earlier by Harvard graduate Yibo Shao and a partner. A year later Ebay bought the rest of Eachnet for $150 million, keeping on its chief, Shao. He vows that Ebay Eachnet, as the site is known, will win: "There can be only one big [consumer auction] site in China."

Ma countered by teaming up with Masayoshi Son's Softbank to launch the Taobao consumer site for $56 million. He picked the ideal partner:Son had beaten back Ebay in Japan by taking an early lead in auctions with his Yahoo Japan joint venture. Ebay closed its Japan site in early 2002.

"We were both thinking the same thing:Son kicked Ebay out of Japan. I have the same chance in China," Ma says. "Ebay doesn't think we are a threat. China will be a worse defeat than Japan." His swagger rankles some observers. Last year Ma gave a presentation on his grand scheme to half a dozen Wall Street types, and one of them stalked out midway through the pitch, with a parting shot:"Ebay will win!"

But so far not a single Western Web site has succeeded in China. AOL in 1999 launched a $200 million joint venture with China's biggest PCmaker, Legend Computer (now called Lenovo). Three years later AOLsold out, and Legend switched to a local telecom partner. All the top sites in China are homegrown: Sina for portals, Shanda for games and, for search, Baidu, which is about to go public. Yahoo is an also-ran in the market; its auction site, 1pai.com, runs a distant third to Ebay and Taobao.

In addition to the $100 million spending spree that Ebay plots this year, it spent an undisclosed sum to sign exclusive deals with China's three largest portals (Sina, Sohu and Netease) to block Taobao ads from those sites. (Sohu and Sina have since dropped the exclusives). "They are doing everything they can to block us," says Ma. Ebay is also plastering ads all over China, on subway platforms and buses. "They have deep pockets, but we will cut a hole in their pocket," Ma jokes.

Ebay has stumbled since scaling the Great Wall. Last year it overhauled the Eachnet site to comply with Ebay's worldwide format. The design change confused some customers, and product listings plunged--down to 250,000 from 780,000 before the switch. Ebay lost some fans last May, when it changed the rules about how sellers can limit their buying audience. "Many power sellers left Ebay to go to Taobao," says Ebay power seller Wang Yun, who remains loyal to the site. Ebay denies it.

Chen Zhuoyuan started selling clothes from Wuxi, China over Ebay's site a year ago but quit after a week because of technical problems, switching to Taobao. "The trades are bigger," she says. Ebay also lags behind in offering its PayPal payment system in China, while Ma launched his own version, Alipay, in January. And the online giant has been shuffling local management, keeping Shao as chairman but assigning a new chief executive officer. "Taobao didn't win the first battle, but Ebay lost it," Ma maintains.

Ebay's onslaught can be expected to continue, but Ma has a fallback: Dozens or hundreds of Ebay sellers in China are cheaply sourcing goods from Ma's Alibaba site, then reselling the items at a profit, says analyst Brueschke.

In addition to its free-pricing practice, Taobao uses guerrilla marketing to keep up with Ebay's might. The China site advertises on the cheap on hundreds of small Web outlets ignored by Ebay. Taobao is the eighth most popular site in China, ahead of Ebay at number 13, according to Alexa, an Internet traffic monitor. An Ebay spokesman argues Taobao's guerrilla tactics artificially inflate its ranking because pop-up ads for Taobao on other sites count as "visitors" to Taobao itself. "It's like saying a person seeing your billboard has visited your store," says Shao. Ma says he is phasing out that ploy--with no visible drop-off in Taobao's Alexa ranking.

In contrast to the Ebay machine, Taobao and Alibaba are vintage dot-com. Young Chinese hipsters in blue jeans sit at open desks beneath posters that say: "Pay any price, do anything, to WIN!" Last year Ma staged a fifth-anniversary bash, in an arena, for all 2,000 employees, with Taobaoists waving flags of worker ants, their mascot--the conceit being that tiny but united they can defeat an elephant. The four-hour event ended with everyone holding hands and singing the lyrics "You have to go through a thunderstorm to see a rainbow"--a reference to the dot-com bust and the dark days of the SARS virus scare as Taobao launched in mid-2003. Then they went disco dancing late into the night, climbing on the bar--Ma among them.

Hijinks can goose morale, but the business model of gaining footing with free traffic and snaring revenue from ancillary services is what concerns those Wall Street skeptics Ma encountered last year. Blessed with his seemingly patient backers and "enough gas in the tank," his Alibaba Holdings has not joined the dot-com rush to the public markets that led to turbulence in the West and later in China.

"Alibaba plans for the long term, and our focus is on our customers and building a great business," maintains Ma. "Plus, our competitors are public, so we know all of their war plans. Why would we want to give up that advantage?"

Additional reporting by Maggie Chen.
 
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