Spreadbetting Companies Want YOU to Lose? Any Thoughts - You Tube Video Link

This is a discussion on Spreadbetting Companies Want YOU to Lose? Any Thoughts - You Tube Video Link within the Spread Betting & CFDs forums, part of the Commercial category; Originally Posted by charlesD I certainly agree with what you said about the more you do something the better you ...

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Old Jun 22, 2014, 11:43am   #31
Joined Oct 2013
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Originally Posted by charlesD View Post
I certainly agree with what you said about the more you do something the better you get at doing it, whether it's playing the violin, golf, or in this case spreadbetting. I don't know how many trades I've made, but It's probably somewhere about 1000-1200. .................

What do you think is the optimal ratio of the stop/limit? Or do you think a better technique is just trailing the stops and going along with the price as far as you can? I used to always trail my stops, and most of the time I'd stop myself out too early only to watch the price rise (or fall) further, but I preferred trailing in order to lock in profit, because nearly always the price falls (or rises) back to your original stop. So have you a set limit target you stick to like 2-3 times the stop size, or do you trail which you think is better?

Well regards to what you said about it taking longer to get better only doing 5 trades a week as opposed to 20 a day, I'm not so sure. As long as you're active in the market watching the price, for example, I haven't traded for 8 weeks now, but my most recent trade, I didn't even risk any money, I just mentally placed a stop, and watched the price.
Hi CharlesD

Re - Stop sizes and fixed or trailing etc etc?

I personally believe you should always trade with a stop and it should be based upon whether the trade you are taking should happen - before price goes and hits you stop.

Many new traders think - OK - i can see a new direction and a target and its say 50 pips away. Therefore I need to allow price room to get there - I will not place my stop at just 20 pips away - its far too close - and the next real S or R is 45 pips away - so to be safe i will go for one further away - so a 80 pip stop should be OK

By doing this - they look that the market as more chance of going in their direction for only 50 pips - rather than going against them by 80 pips. In many cases they might be correct - but immediately by having a negative RR - they will need a win ratio of at least 65% to even make small gains in the future.

Stops for me should be as tight as possible - but still allow you to make positive pips.

Optimal stop size all depends on your trading knowledge and experience and of course bear a relationship to your actual target . A 5 or 10 pips stop after a 150 -200 pip target would be extremely difficult to pull off for any new or intermediate trader. Therefore many go down the RR route and think I need a minimum RR of 2 for this trade - so my stop should be somewhere up to 75 pips away from entry. 40 50 pips is a S or R away - so I will allow a bit and yes 65 pips is OK

But is it ??

My own view - but please remember I don't recommend this to any new trader - or trader who is not very experienced at reading PA - is I need a stop as tight as possible if I believe the direction is changing.

In my own case every trade I take as to be with a stop size of under 7 pips and can be as low as 3 pips on a pair with a spread of only 0 3- 0 5 of a pip.

That requires exact timing and patience etc etc - especially if I am going to take 10 -20 trades a day.

I will not except a win ratio of under 65% - and expect to always be around the 70 -80% every 100 trades taken.

My targets are totally dynamic. If I risk 5 pips - I don't just want a 3 pip result - BUT yes if I can only take 3 pips - I will accept it rather than end up minus 3 or stopped at minus 5.

Most trades do end up between 7 and 25 pips - normally in 10 -15 mins - and majority under 30 mins.

Many trader just think - well that's no good only say 16 pips as a result - hardly worth doing

What they dont realise is that trade as a RR of 3+ ( stop 5 pips) and monetary wise is exactly the same as me risking 50 pips to make 151 pip or even risking 100 pips to make 301 pips.

Yes the money I make off a 16 pip win in under 15 mins is the same as if I had waited 2 days for 300 pip with a 150 pip stop.

So that's why I want tight stops - to be able to make more money.

Even if I set my mental stop at 4 pips and I am stopped out - It still does not stop be risking another entry again - if I am still believing the move will go my way.

So I could actually have 2 losses of total 8 pips and then catch the trade and it goes on to make 25 pips - so end result - 3 trades - 2 losses - risked 12 pips in total and made 25 pips - still a very positive result.

I think to get to as low a stop as possible you need to work and trade a long time at the "coalface" - Ideally on 3 min or 1 min charts and then when they become slow - down to tick charts.

Initially try 8 or 9 pip stops - remember if you need a stop over 10 or 15 pips - it really a total different trade to a short term intraday trader.

Traders with stop over 20 or 25 pips are thinking they are being safe - but really just hoping and not understanding PA at the real coalface. The industry wants trader to think it cannot be done - IE - Trading in the noise is too risky - dangerous - near impossible.

Well its not - but it take years to get to the level that you can nearly follow every pip and wave move and then cherry pick the ones with the highest probabilities that might make you RR's of 3 or 5 + even in under 30 or 60 mins.

With regards to clues on how you do it. -

1. Watch small frame charts for many 1000's of hours.

2. Keep an eye on all levels - interim - dynamic - pivots etc

3. Keep an eye on the time of every move

4. Watch for false moves - ie a quick spike of 5 -10 pips to encourage traders to enter a trade in the wrong direction

5, When a move looks a certainty - be careful in may 7 out of 10 cases - its a set up - false sentiment - before a completely different move in the opposite direction

6. Learn to read patterns - even simple 123 or ABC as well as Head and Shoulders or other harmonics on the small frames as well as even candle stick clues.

7. Take 100's or even thousands of trades on a demo first to get the feel of quick entries etc etc

All these thing cannot be all achieved in 6 or 9 months - but after a few years of focus and determination etc etc - you will get there and then you will think - why did I ever need 20 or 30 pip stops?

Finally - its so important you do keep trading via demo or live account. As you know live account is a different world to demo - and even just mentally thinking out a trade is not the same as carrying it out.

No Pain - No Gain - and it certainly applies to trading - but then one day - the pains slowly go away - and the gains keep on coming in

Hope that helps


Regards


F

Last edited by Forexmospherian; Jun 22, 2014 at 4:18pm.
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Old Jun 22, 2014, 9:01pm   #32
Joined Mar 2014
95% lose regardless of how good you are

once you learn that you will be ok and not lose your shirt
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Old Aug 20, 2017, 9:12pm   #33
Joined Oct 2008
Yes, its true SB and CFD companies want you to lose, since they take the other side of your trade, because they KNOW 95% of traders are losers.
The other 5%, they hedge trades manually, exposing you to unnecessary risks.

The man in the video is right. Why did they take the video down, though?

Why else do you think the brokers are so rich?
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Old Aug 20, 2017, 9:35pm   #34
Joined Apr 2016
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Why else do you think the brokers are so rich?
Who say they are rich ? All the tall shiny buildings are owned by banks. The banks make the brokers look like they belong in the poor house. The banks take the other side of your ECN trade. More likely than not they also own all the brokers. They also own you through mortgage or other kind of debt.

99% of the people lose not because broker take the other side. It is because the banks move the price. All assets used for speculations are owned by the banks directly or indirectly. They move the price because it is profitable and because the clueless blame the brokers.
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Old Aug 20, 2017, 11:42pm   #35
Joined Sep 2013
This time to the Moon!

charlesD started this thread Found this Trade2Win Email in my inbox. I forgot about this thread! Did I really write all that! lol. Unbelievable.

After a 10 month Hiatus, back in again. Currently up 33% in 5 weeks. Not Bad. Keep this up, I'll be rich soon! lol.

That is my Goal. I'll be having the last laugh here. Not the spreadbetting firm! Mark my words! lol.

Enlightened.Joe. Please back up your statements with some evidence. I cannot believe the banks can control the price of all speculative instruments...that is absurd...

3 years ago...Thanks for reply
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 5:52am   #36
Joined Apr 2016
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Originally Posted by charlesD View Post
Enlightened.Joe. Please back up your statements with some evidence. I cannot believe the banks can control the price of all speculative instruments...that is absurd...
I will change my view when you show evidence to the contrary.
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 8:29am   #37
Joined Feb 2002
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Originally Posted by parthaab View Post
Yes, its true SB and CFD companies want you to lose, since they take the other side of your trade, because they KNOW 95% of traders are losers.
The other 5%, they hedge trades manually, exposing you to unnecessary risks.

The man in the video is right. Why did they take the video down, though?

Why else do you think the brokers are so rich?

Do you really think some SB company can move the EUR/USD price?
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 9:36am   #38
Joined Oct 2008
Do these 90% 'bad' traders fail because of market manipulation? Possibly, I guess. But that is something every trader takes into account - the market is unpredictable. But the fact is, the brokers DEPEND on these failed trades to make money, because they automatically take the opposite side.

We are not talking about manipulation of the markets here. Only that brokers take the opposite position of every trade ( i.e. trade against you ), knowing that statistically > 90% of trades lose anyway. That is why they are called 'market makers' btw.

IF you are unlucky enough to be a (5-10% ) winner type of person, they will profile you since you are making them a loss. Then they will hedge all your trades ( which they are supposed to do anyway ), and this will delay your trades. Besides, they will also requote you, and offer you poor service, since they dont want you.

This, 90%+5%= 95% chances you will fail. And this has nothing to do with market manipulation yet.

Btw, if you listen to Anton ( whose youtube link has been taken down ), he also talks about shills and flesh puppets in the industry, to make it appear as though all is well.
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 9:40am   #39
Joined Oct 2008
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Originally Posted by EnlightenedJoe View Post
Who say they are rich ?
IB brokers ( for example ) asset value in 2016 was US$54.7 billion (2016). Their 2016 revenue alone was 1.6 billion.

Of course, the average trader would nt know their true relations with the big investment banks. But it IS MASSIVE money.
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 9:51am   #40
Joined Feb 2002
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Originally Posted by parthaab View Post
Do these 90% 'bad' traders fail because of market manipulation? Possibly, I guess. But that is something every trader takes into account - the market is unpredictable. But the fact is, the brokers DEPEND on these failed trades to make money, because they automatically take the opposite side.

We are not talking about manipulation of the markets here. Only that brokers take the opposite position of every trade ( i.e. trade against you ), knowing that statistically > 90% of trades lose anyway. That is why they are called 'market makers' btw.

IF you are unlucky enough to be a (5-10% ) winner type of person, they will profile you since you are making them a loss. Then they will hedge all your trades ( which they are supposed to do anyway ), and this will delay your trades. Besides, they will also requote you, and offer you poor service, since they dont want you.

This, 90%+5%= 95% chances you will fail. And this has nothing to do with market manipulation yet.

Btw, if you listen to Anton ( whose youtube link has been taken down ), he also talks about shills and flesh puppets in the industry, to make it appear as though all is well.

If there's anything at all in what you say it would seem to be a good argument against short-term trading.
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 10:06am   #41
Joined Oct 2008
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
If there's anything at all in what you say it would seem to be a good argument against short-term trading.
Gambling ( with the dice loaded against you ) at best.

Unethical practice. No regulatory body action.
Massive money, and the public is fooled into believing that it is a game of their intelligence!

There are also plenty of sock puppets and flesh puppets ( shills ), to fool people to lose their money too.

Anton says actually 90% people lose 90% money in 90 days - 90/90/90 rule!

So in 90 days, the real traders are gone! You dont hear from them anymore!
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 10:17am   #42
Joined Feb 2002
SB companies and studies by various independent bodies used to say that at any point in a year, 80% of clients were losing and only 20% winning. That's a higher percentage of winners than we usually hear quoted, but if only half the 80% close their accounts per year and are replaced by newcomers, that pretty soon works out to the 90-95% losers figure usually heard.
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Old Aug 21, 2017, 11:51am   #43
Joined Oct 2008
It is not only about short term CFD trades. How to know if the Options prices on Brokerage Platforms and therefore the price of Volatility are a fair and accurate reflection of reality?
More likely that traders are getting “ripped off” by an Options Market Maker too.

When they get their chance to cheat, obviously they would nt miss it!
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 3:27pm   #44
Joined Sep 2013
charlesD started this thread
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Originally Posted by EnlightenedJoe View Post
I will change my view when you show evidence to the contrary.
Sure they can influence the price of assets or currencies through monetary policy. Changing interest rates can kickstart a long term trend. But anyone would know that. What you were implying though is some sort of covert conspiracy where they control the price of anything at any one particular time is absurd...
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 3:30pm   #45
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charlesD started this thread
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Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
Do you really think some SB company can move the EUR/USD price?
? do you know how big the market is? To move the EUR/USD price even by a fraction of a percent would take billions. No SB companies have the resources to risk this much money just to move the market to their favor. They could manipulate the price seen on the screen by a few pips, but even if they do this too often they would soon be caught out, considering most traders might have multiple screens open obtaining quotes from various sources, some kind of discrepancy like this would easily be found out.
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