Day Trading & Forex Forum

bgold

This trade is working out well (unlike the Cocoa which collapsed).

SB N4 held at support and bounced nicely up from the 0.618 retracement of rally to the 7.25 high. Now at 6.93
Elliot wave count points to a top above 7.25

Long from 6.34, initial stop at 6.05, now raised to 6.67 (just below the rising window/gap). Will review stop level again for tomorrow.
See updated chart

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
OM NAMAH SIVAYA!

neil

Nice call.

Was there a reason for the sudden steep climb in March to 720, prior to the price dropping back to its' trendline?

__________________
neil
Education is an admirable thing but it is well to remember, from time to time, that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.
(Oscar Wilde)

bgold

For what it is worth, I couldn't resist charting sugar in PNF.
According to theory, as long as prices remain above the 45degree (fat) line, Sugar remains bullish.

Interesting to see that prices bounced exactly up from the 45degree support line. This would imply that sugar remains bullis for as long as prices remain above 635 (which is a too much risk for my stop), but a level to consider playing sugar from long side.

As for ultimate PNF targets (eg only buy & hold situations, which is difficult in futures with only a few months till expiry)
vertical count: 14crosses x 3box reversal chart x 0.05 = 2.10
horizonal count: 11 boxes from previous breakout x 3 x 0.05= 1.65
gives:
Vertical count: 6.30 + 2.1 = 8.40
Horizonal cnt: 6.30 + 1.65 = 7.95

Neil, I believe there were some demand issues (possiblky related to China) but main reason was a massive buying by hedgefunds who subsequently were shaken out by commercials (and probably locals) who shorted above 7.00. My understanding is that fundamentals are very good for sugar but it is a tricky market to play, so staying with main trend is probably best advice.

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
OM NAMAH SIVAYA!

DaveT

July04 CSCE Sugar has been trading sideways for the past few sessions.

I see a possible bull flag formation( breakout objective 780), but a test of support may come first (?)

Long-tem , the weekly shows good upside potential.

See my charts below.

BGold - is your P & F 45' line holding? (basis July?)

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
David.

DaveT

Weekly chart - (sugar)

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
David.

bgold

DaveT, Very interesting charts and analysis. I am also bullish on sugar but have to admit went flat yeterday after tightening stop to Fridays' close at 697. In hindsight not a bad move, let's hope i won't regret.
Having see the havoc in March, i decided to get out of 1/2pos at 701 and was stopped out on 696 for remainder.


My reasoning:
1. I was long full position from 634 and had added another 1/2position at 7.02. Range trading gave me the creeps (as flags do), and
2. Fridays' COT report showed a further increase of Large spec longs vs -122k for Commercials.
3. April rally failed to confirm March highs and various indcators do not point to imment strength.
4. Sugar bull spreads do not point to strength (may/July tightened a little but Jul04-Mar05 has gone down to -26 from -10 a week ago.
5. P&F (3box) is just breaking through bullish support (see chart).

I wouldn't be surprised if we get some more volatile trading in next few trading sessions.

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
OM NAMAH SIVAYA!

bgold

Note how this spread has continued to widen since the colllapse in March.

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
OM NAMAH SIVAYA!

DaveT

JULY 04 CSCE SUGAR - Is the flag about to break out?

RSI holding trendline support, Stochastics point up and crossing?

Textbook target would give 775 by measurement.

Let's see.

Attached Thumbnails

 

__________________
David.