Can anyone recommend a strategy?

One day .....(and it can be a long time coming)......a trader finally realises how simple the market is ..........you are either

trading the trend
or fading the trend (retraces)

and a market is always trending .....you just have to look hard enough.....

that's it .........don't trade unless you are seeing a decent signal re above.....

if you are a sloppy trader on those decent signals - you will lose over time
if you are a tight and disciplined trader - but you are not trading these signals correctly - you will lose over time

the market is unforgiving - brutal in fact - no mercy - so bring your best game every session

N

my first post here..

I use elliot wave. i start at weekly.; then go to daily then 4h then to 1h .. i realy need to see everything .. and drill down. I added a few patterns of myself to elliotwave , I use macd (you can use any indicator ema's or rsi etc ) to find a wave then i count them based on elliotwave rules
thats it it takes me about one hour to do the analysis. i'll only take 1:3(risk/reward) ore less risky trades I have a youtube to show it .. but i'm new here so i dont know if i can post it .

Don't worry i dont sell any courses or education.. i hate all gurus selling garbage myself.

timsk said:

Hi 30XTCi,
Thanks for the explanation.
Another journey of self discovery awaits us eh? Given the number I've already been on in recent years, I ought to be a truly enlightened being by now! :cheesy:
I've Googled Hurst Cycles and, other than the original text by Hurst himself, there doesn't appear to be a great deal out there other than various e-books published by people claiming to make Hurst's work intelligible for the layman and the mathematically challenged - i.e. people like me! Here's an example:
JM Hurst Cycle Trading
Did you have a specific text in mind? Anyway, I'll keep looking and, in the meantime, look forward to your next pearl of wisdom to help us all along the path to enlightenment.
Tim.

Click to expand...

I've been looking back over this extremely interesting and informative thread – an example ofT2W at its best in my opinion. Regarding Hurst cycles: I've long used these and can confirm that with a proper understanding they are extremely effective when used appropriately and in the right conditions.

The best explanation and modern research done on them was by Brian Millard, unfortunately now passed away. Having had several conversations with him in the past I can vouch for his genuineness and serious approach to the subject. It is very well explained in his book " Channels & Cycles – a tribute to JM Hurst" which I believe is still in print but can also be downloaded from the Internet if you search carefully. You do need a good grasp of very basic mathematics (e.g. GCE O-level, in my generation) to gain a proper understanding but the reader's requirement is one more of dedication rather than possession of an Einstein-like brain. I agree with your comments on the numerous e-books available on Hurst cycles – they don't explain it and their main purpose seems to be to sell yet another system. If you have a proper understanding of Hurst cycles you just make your own system.

There has been little discussion of Millard on T2W which is a shame since Hurst cycles combined with ultra-basic TA is a very profitable trading methodology for those trading anything other than short term – it's ideal for EOD trading. I hope this will persuade people to look at Hurst – I'm sure some will find it of value.

Ref# 63

Having just noticed this thread is in the FX forum it does raise a further point regarding Hurst cycles. At any one time there will be only a small percentage of instruments that can be suitably assessed using Hurst cycles – this can be as little as 10%. While this is not a problem with something like the SP 500 set of shares it could restrict you somewhat if you are just looking at the major FX pairs and you trade particular favourites. Just something to bear in mind. I would suggest that Hurst cycles would present more opportunities with shares rather than FX although there is no reason why Hurst techniques should not work with FX in principle. However, I can't speak authoritatively on this because I don't trade FX.

sminicooper said:

Having just noticed this thread is in the FX forum it does raise a further point regarding Hurst cycles. At any one time there will be only a small percentage of instruments that can be suitably assessed using Hurst cycles – this can be as little as 10%. While this is not a problem with something like the SP 500 set of shares it could restrict you somewhat if you are just looking at the major FX pairs and you trade particular favourites. Just something to bear in mind. I would suggest that Hurst cycles would present more opportunities with shares rather than FX although there is no reason why Hurst techniques should not work with FX in principle. However, I can't speak authoritatively on this because I don't trade FX.

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Hurst approach is too old, same crap as elliot waves i thin, needs thorough upgrade or redisign as markets are constantly advancing.

gerryg said:

Hurst approach is too old, same crap as elliot waves i thin, needs thorough upgrade or redisign as markets are constantly advancing.

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The markets may be constantly advancing but the mathematics of cycle analysis has not changed: 2+2 still equals 4. Hurst is not Elliot even though your statement appears to show contempt for both – perhaps you might like to elucidate?

There are lots of strategies to trade, you need to find it yourself the one which is useful for you.

gerryg said:

Hurst approach is too old, same crap as elliot waves i thin, needs thorough upgrade or redisign as markets are constantly advancing.

Click to expand...

i'd not dismiss elliot wave at all to me it's the only tool that gives the most possible usable patterns .. it's not complete so i added a few more rules to it.. but i have yet to find a better tool.

ive been trough all the possible strats believe me.. the new, the old candlesticks, butterflies, wolfe ,c&h , h&s , support/resist.... all possible indicators, etc etc .. from manual to algo trading..
Nothing is as complete for me to look at price structure then elliot wave. at least i have an idea where i am in the market. and what the possible next moves will be.

I'd be happy to learn new stuff since i'm pretty obsessed 24/24 with it so if you have a better way.. let me know.. i'd be realy happy :clap::smart:

wonkytonky said:

. . . so if you have a better way.. let me know.. i'd be realy happy :clap::smart:

Click to expand...

Hi wonkytonky,
I've never looked at EW, so I can't say whether this is a better way or not, but it's almost certainly worth a look as it's based on price action: Trading with p/f
Tim.

wonkytonky said:

i'd not dismiss elliot wave at all to me it's the only tool that gives the most possible usable patterns .. it's not complete so i added a few more rules to it.. but i have yet to find a better tool.

ive been trough all the possible strats believe me.. the new, the old candlesticks, butterflies, wolfe ,c&h , h&s , support/resist.... all possible indicators, etc etc .. from manual to algo trading..
Nothing is as complete for me to look at price structure then elliot wave. at least i have an idea where i am in the market. and what the possible next moves will be.

I'd be happy to learn new stuff since i'm pretty obsessed 24/24 with it so if you have a better way.. let me know.. i'd be realy happy :clap::smart:

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wonkytonky (fascinating name!) – There's no easy way through this. In my experience you just have to try all the strategies and see what works for you if indeed any do at all. But the good thing is that on your journey you will pick up lots of stuff that will tuck its way at the back of your mind and eventually your subconscious (and your spreadsheet if you're serious about trading) will point a suitable way forward. For every recommended methodology you will find a detractor: just listen to them all, examine carefully and draw your own conclusions based on your own testing. It's balls-aching hard work but I've found no other way. If you have the determination to succeed and half a brain cell you will get there in the end.

So, guys, in time of high-frequency trading, how should we, average traders need to trade? By own robot or advisor? What modern strategies exist now?
In truth, everyone tell me 2 simple strategies:
1) follow to the trend
2) try to trade pullbacks and you need nothing more

Caetano said:

So, guys, in time of high-frequency trading, how should we, average traders need to trade? By own robot or advisor? What modern strategies exist now?
In truth, everyone tell me 2 simple strategies:
1) follow to the trend
2) try to trade pullbacks and you need nothing more

Click to expand...

Simple

Caetano said:

So, guys, in time of high-frequency trading, how should we, average traders need to trade? By own robot or advisor? What modern strategies exist now?
In truth, everyone tell me 2 simple strategies:
1) follow to the trend
2) try to trade pullbacks and you need nothing more

Click to expand...

There are dozens of ways to determine a trend or pullbacks, have you already found yours? :smart:

Trend and pullback trading are two general directions in which traders should develop strategies.

This thread has piqued my interest, does anyone know of a way to filter forex pairs or stocks by the prices relationship to a particular technical indicator's value, eg in this case filter to find any price of pair that is outide of its (20,3) BB?

elliot.baker.eb said:

This thread has piqued my interest, does anyone know of a way to filter forex pairs or stocks by the prices relationship to a particular technical indicator's value, eg in this case filter to find any price of pair that is outide of its (20,3) BB?

Click to expand...

no but it's pretty simple to code.. you'll need some sort of scanner and code it. you can do this in multicharts

but lets be realistic.. just because price shoots out of BB(boilinger bands right?) even if it goes back in.. thats not a good strat.. price can just continue the trend .. BB lag and will adjust to price. you can see this on the 1min .. just watch BB evolve.. same thing happens on higher timeframes.

you might get profit out of it just because you keep to a plan and with right risk management.. it might just give you an advance.. but it's not the best i think.

you can test multicharts for 30 days.. just run it in vm and when the trial is over.; just run a new vm and install it again.; you'll lose alle your code so back it up and reuse it.

I found a website that does back testing called marketinout or something like that. I set it to open a long position when price crosses below bb (20,3) lower band and close when crosses above sma (5). I put a stop loss of 10% on (didn't understand what % of) and it said last year wouldvery made quite good profit (40% odd I think) going short with the reversed parameters was similar. That was on daily candles with 5k pot and 250 per trade max 20 open positions... not sure what stock market it was looking at.

Forex back test showed profit also.

elliot.baker.eb said:

I found a website that does back testing called marketinout or something like that. I set it to open a long position when price crosses below bb (20,3) lower band and close when crosses above sma (5). I put a stop loss of 10% on (didn't understand what % of) and it said last year wouldvery made quite good profit (40% odd I think) going short with the reversed parameters was similar. That was on daily candles with 5k pot and 250 per trade max 20 open positions... not sure what stock market it was looking at.

Forex back test showed profit also.

Click to expand...

http://prntscr.com/cfafep i think this strat does somehow what you want
on Tradingview with pinescript



you can play with it for free.; just add the stratt to your chart.

you can try to add a stoploss in there

feel free to share results..

A way to filter stocks by price and technical indicators

elliot.baker.eb said:

This thread has piqued my interest, does anyone know of a way to filter forex pairs or stocks by the prices relationship to a particular technical indicator's value, eg in this case filter to find any price of pair that is outide of its (20,3) BB?

Click to expand...

I don't know how to filter Forex pairs by their prices' relationship to a particular technical indicator, but I DO know of a way to do it with respect to STOCKS. If you send me a private message I'll fill you in.

Will Duxon said:

I don't know how to filter Forex pairs by their prices' relationship to a particular technical indicator, but I DO know of a way to do it with respect to STOCKS. If you send me a private message I'll fill you in.

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Hi Will,
Why not post it here, then everyone can benefit?

Just so you know, as a rule of thumb, the forum as a whole takes a dim view of members offering to do things for others in private behind closed doors. The reason being that, 99% of the time, it's not for the 'right' reasons.
Tim.

As like professional trader and trader who traded with large institutional traders for many years I can share some tips for you. Most of retail traders focus on technical analysis (searching for successful strategy, "holy grail" ) but most of them don't realize that fundamentals drives the market and that they need to focus on market sentiment and fundamentals if they want to be successful. Professionals will not build any position on the market if they dont understand market sentiment and fundamental condition at the moment on the currency pair they observe. Technical analysis is maybe the easiest part. Internet is full of "forex systems" which they want to sell you and take your money because they are not traders they are sellers.

In the professional trading there is no price is overbought or oversold or stuffs like that. There is > do I understand the market background and past market movements and If i do, I want to establish my position using the my fundamental view and sentiment. So, technical analysis in professional trading is used to benefit from our fundamental view we created. if we speak about technical analysis, you dont need anytying special. The professionals using only pure price action,high,low, close of the bars. In intraday trading and near-term trading I am using market profile + volume price action.

Will post you example of reading the market sentiment and watching closely price action on high impact events.

Hope i helped you

Petar