Best Thread FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

British Pound Expected to Continue Higher versus Yen

According to David Rodriguez's Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index report on DailyFX.com, the ratio of long to short positions in the GBP/JPY stands at -2.68 as 27% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.97; 34% of open positions were long.




Long positions are 19.1% lower than yesterday and 20.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 10.0% higher than yesterday and 8.5% above levels seen last week.




We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBP/JPY may continue higher.




The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

FX Market Readies for Weekend Summit for Greece Deal, So Should You.

Talking Points:
- European FX pairs quiet as market awaits summit on Saturday.
- May be deemed best risk management to lower leverage today.
- See the June forex seasonality report on DailyFX.com

The Weekly Volume Report: Cable Divergence

• GBP/USD has come under modest pressure these past few days after recording a multi-minth high last week
• The general decline in volume since mid-May is unsupportive of a primary trend resumption at this stage
• A divergence in the daily OBV is also a potential negative
• A daily close below 1.5640 on above average volume is needed to turn the outlook negative on the pound

Euro Set for Rocky Week as Greece Stares into the Abyss

What currency strategist Christopher Vecchio noted on DailyFX.com last Friday, but is absolutely worth reiterating now, is the notion of risk management with respect to the EUR-crosses. It may be deemed best risk management practice for traders to reduce position size and leverage in EUR-crosses for the foreseeable future.




While the potential outcome for Greece is unknown - the absolute magnitude of the fallout around a positive or negative outcome will be enough to have a significant impact on prices over the coming week at a minimum.

What are the Critical Dates for Greece and the Euro?



What’s the Most Important Date on the Calendar?

In concrete terms, the single most significant deadline on the calendar is likely the European Central Bank bond repayment due on July, 19—assuming that the Greek Government remains solvent up until that point.

Any surprises could force substantial market moves, and traders should limit trading leverage—particularly in EUR pairs—ahead of the key dates. Caution is advised until we see a true breakthrough in negotiations.

Holiday Trading Hours for July

Below are the CFD holiday trading hours for July. Forex trading hours remain unchanged, and you can view the holiday rollover interest schedule here: bit.ly/14Wwoso

Dollar Regains Control as Retail FX Traders Switch Direction

Below are highlights from David Rodriguez's weekly report on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI):


Talking Points

• US Dollar forecast turns bullish on substantial swing in forex sentiment
• Focus turns to Euro, Sterling, and Commodity Bloc as pairs break key lows
• See full analysis in the individual currency sections on DailyFX.com

Breakout Strategies Favored on Euro Pairs

Volatility prices remain high as Greek voters rejected a Eurogroup bailout and raised the risks of a Greek exit from the Euro Zone.




Thus current market conditions may favor our SSI-based Breakout2 trading strategy in most of the especially risk-sensitive currency pairs.




Quantitative strategist David Rodriguez explains the Breakout2 trading system in his article on DailyFX.com

US Dollar and Japanese Yen on Target to Hit these Price Levels

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen have broken sharply higher versus the Euro and British Pound. Here are the levels that quantitative strategist David Rodriguez is watching next.

EUR/USD

• Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
• Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume

The Euro has broken major levels of volume-based support and currently trades just above noteworthy congestion near $1.0900. A larger breakdown leaves little in the way of a test of $1.08, while former support is current resistance starting at $1.10 and extending through $1.12.

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GBP/JPY

• Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
• Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume

The Sterling has traded below important congestion versus the Yen at the ¥190 level, and support is now seen at December, 2014 highs near ¥188—likewise an important volume-based congestion zone. Our focus remains to the downside, and former support turns to resistance starting near ¥190.

Volume & Sentiment Alignment on AUD/USD Favors Downside

Recently, China’s Shanghai Index has seen a 29% drop from mid-June highs taking it negative for the year and hurting regional sentiment. There is also risk-off sentiment due to concerns over Greece’s potential exit from the Eurozone and hard assets, such as Oil moving aggressively lower. Earlier today, the Thomson Reuters CRB Commodity Equity Index hit a 5-year low today. This risk-off environment has created a sell-off in AUD/USD.




In his article today on DailyFX.com, forex trading instructor Tyler Yell highlights how retail FX traders have aggressively and unsuccessfully fought this downtrend, as you see from the picture above. This fight has taken place as AUD/USD continued lower. Sentiment favors further downside as you can see when the client positioning is heavily leaning one direction, it often aligns with a strong trend that they’re hoping is about to reverse.




Additionally, you can see that Retail Open Long Positions have increased and are at their greatest exposure since the market peaked in spring of 2014. The changes in long and shorts show additionally that the long view is getting more aggressive. The increase in retail long positions are 23.7% above levels seen last week showing the fight is only accelerating.




You can see above that the recent break of support shown by white lines attracted a relatively large amount of volume. With an increasing amount of support or multitude of buyers, a sustained move below that 4-month support of 0.7550/0.7600 could develop.

US Dollar Remains in Position for Gains versus GBP, AUD, NZD

According to David Rodriguez's latest analysis of the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen remain in position to hit fresh highs.




You can see the details of what he's watching in his Weekly SSI Report on DailyFX.com

EUR Breaks Range on Greek Hopes- Relief Bounce at Risk on Dovish ECB

Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Retail FX Remains Net-Short Despite Growing Optimism for Greek Deal.
• GBP/USD Threatens Bearish Momentum Ahead of Key U.K. Data, BoE Governor Carney Speech.
• USDOLLAR Retains Bullish Formation Ahead of Fed’s Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.

The Weekly Volume Report: High Turnover Euro Capitulation

• EUR/USD continues to trade in a sideways to lower range
• Well above average volume spikes at recent lows warn of a possible near-term downside capitulation
• The contraction in daily OBV suggests a directional spike is looming
• A close back over 1.1240 on above average volume is needed to turn the outlook positive again on the euro

US Dollar Trades at Make or Break Levels versus the Euro, Yen

The US Dollar is at a potentially pivotal zone of support versus the Japanese Yen but eyes key resistance against the Euro. Here are the levels that quantitative strategist David Rodriguez is watching:

EUR/USD

• Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
• Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume

The Euro continues to hold below significant volume-based resistance starting at $1.12, and continued failure leaves our focus to the downside. Near-term support is the psychologically significant $1.10 mark, while a break below targets congestion and volume-based support near $1.09.

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USD/JPY

• Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
• Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume

The US Dollar has recently failed near notable congestion and volume-based resistance versus the Yen starting at ¥123.50, and continued failure at these levels leaves support near comparable volume levels near ¥121.50.

Key EUR/USD Levels to Know Ahead of the ECB, US CPI

Talking Points

• EUR/USD testing key near-term support confluence- immediate short-bias at risk above
• Updated targets & invalidation levels
• See the economic calendar at DailyFX.com for the event risk on tap this week

Euro Forecast to Hit Further Lows on Major Sentiment Shift

Continued Euro tumbles have been met with aggressive retail FX crowd buying, and our trader sample shows that traders are close to flipping to net-long the EUR/USD for the first time since March. We typically use retail positioning as a contrarian indicator to price action; crowds remain net-short and as such we might call for Euro gains.


Yet the severity with which sentiment has flipped warns that the Euro may continue lower. The pair currently trades at congestion-based support near $1.0900, and a further breakdown targets the May low near $1.08 and eventually a return towards the year-to-date low near $1.0440.

See more analysis for other currencies in this week's Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) report on DailyFX.com

US Dollar Pulls Back, but Watch these Key Levels versus Euro

The US Dollar has pulled back sharply across the board, but further Dollar losses may be limited if it can hold key near-term support levels versus the Euro.

EUR/USD

• Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
• Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume

The Euro has held key volume-based support at the $1.08 mark, and a continued bounce leaves support-turned-resistance at $1.10 as the next near-term target. A break above $1.10 would shift focus towards substantial volume congestion starting near $1.1250.

Dollar Likely to Lose versus Euro, NZD. Watch Gold Prices and AUD

According to the Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Report, the US Dollar may have set an important high versus the Euro and New Zealand Dollar, but watch the price of gold and the Australian Dollar for further USD-buying opportunities.




See specific US Dollar forecasts in the individual currency sections on DailyFX.com

Euro, Yen Rally as Dollar, Equity Markets Slip at Start of FOMC Week

In today's video, DailyFX currency strategist Christopher Vecchio gives us a preview of what's shaping up to be an important few days for the USDOLLAR Index technically and coincides with a bevy of top-tier event risk that will undoubtedly bring waves of volatility to FX markets.

Talking Points:
- EUR/USD, EUR/GBP testing confines of falling wedge resistance.
- EUR/AUD continues to streak towards target above A$1.5300.
- Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for event risk this week.

SSI Snapshots - EUR/USD

According to the latest readings from our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), the ratio of long to short positions in the EUR/USD stands at -1.68. That means there are 1.68 short positions among FXCM's retail client base for each long position.


In other words, only 37% of traders are long, while 63% are short. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EUR/USD may continue higher.
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For years, FXCM clients have been able to get SSI updates on DailyFXplus.com, but now you can also get real-time SSI data for up to 19 symbols directly on your charts.


The SSI Snapshots indicator from FXCMapps.com updates every second, so you have the most up-to-date info on the marketplace. And with convenient docking, you can position the indicator on any chart so it never gets in the way.