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Forum: Indices Apr 14, 2013, 5:41am
Replies: 307
Views: 11,756
Posted By tomorton
Re: Anyone shorting the Dow Jones? pt 2

Where is the TA to justify shorting the Dow? (not thinking about doing it, doing it)

Where was the TA to support shorting the Dow when we were 1200pts lower at the start of this thread?
Forum: Trading Journals Mar 22, 2013, 6:39am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

Promised myself last year I would stop contributing until I had achieved 6 consecutive profitable months. If a trader can't do that, who is he to tell other people how to do it right?
...
Forum: Trading Journals Mar 22, 2013, 4:42am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

I agree with D70: unless financially impossible, continue to trade your strategy regardless of expected news, and let the strategy take account of the market's reaction to news.

I am sceptical re...
Forum: The Foyer Mar 19, 2013, 8:33am
Replies: 4
Views: 182
Posted By tomorton
Re: Sound Familiar?

This parable's to do with guessing what the weight of the ox is now, not what it will be at some later moment in time.

My guess is that most of us, if trying to guess what its wight will be later...
Forum: Indices Mar 16, 2013, 7:43pm
Replies: 307
Views: 11,756
Posted By tomorton
Re: Anyone shorting the Dow Jones? pt 2

Eventually the indices might collapse, but there is no evidence yet that is strong enough for opening a short. Just the same as there wasn't when this thread was started, and the Dow was 800 points...
Forum: Indices Mar 15, 2013, 11:06am
Replies: 307
Views: 11,756
Posted By tomorton
Re: Anyone shorting the Dow Jones? pt 2

Lee - I guess you're running a sustainable trading strategy, you've been around here a long time. But I feel sure that a true contrarian position is based on visible supportive evidence, it isn't...
Forum: Indices Mar 15, 2013, 8:40am
Replies: 307
Views: 11,756
Posted By tomorton
Re: GREENSPAN : recent economic strength is coming from stocks and ...

Absolutely. Think what you like, but trade only one thing - what you see.
Forum: Trading Journals Mar 4, 2013, 10:20am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

Yes, if I remember correctly, that was one of his points, even a good strategy could deliver 20 straight losses, hence the importance of money management.
Forum: Trading Journals Mar 4, 2013, 9:11am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

jon - Makes sense. Also it brings back a distant memory of Mark Douglas's views on trading psychology - did he not suggest it was futile to change your trading plan unless it had generated 20 losses...
Forum: Trading Journals Mar 4, 2013, 7:28am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

China - I take account of trade outcomes in the month in which the trade closes. Anything before the exit is just unrealised potential profit / potential loss.
Forum: Forex Mar 2, 2013, 7:07am
Replies: 1,131
Views: 101,598
Posted By tomorton
Re: GBP/USD Breakout

I suspect Claudia has gone off to find a more dependable strategy.

Opening Range Breakout strategies are seductive, and I was certainly seduced here long ago, but difficult to make profits...
Forum: Trading Journals Mar 2, 2013, 6:11am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

Hi China - Nice to see this thread running again.I continue to try to make money swing trading the FTSE100 stocks. I have learned two important facts that support my approach -

1. I lose money /...
Forum: Indices Mar 1, 2013, 8:04am
Replies: 5
Views: 640
Posted By tomorton
Re: DAX Breakout strategy

It's a familar principle. Where do you personally set your exit?
Forum: Trading Psychology Feb 25, 2013, 9:30am
Replies: 7
Views: 641
Posted By tomorton
Re: Trailing Stops vs. Targets

Stops at 10% of equity sounds exceptionally high risk. I am more comfortable with 1-2%. I set stops based on the TA, but limit orders at 1.5 times x risk. I often take profits early, but only when...
Forum: Trading Arcades Feb 23, 2013, 11:24am
Replies: 23
Views: 2,352
Posted By tomorton
Re: IMPACT OF European Financial Transaction Tax

I assume the EU's objectives is to meld Europe into a United States of Europe. Stuff like this makes more sense in that context. The Eurocrats don't see their job as requiring them to enable or...
Forum: The Foyer Feb 3, 2013, 1:38pm
Replies: 30
Views: 1,043
Posted By tomorton
Re: Interested in F1

Is F1 boring? - only if you don't watch it.

The 2012 season featured -
* record 20 races
* 7 different winners in first 7 races
* pole sitter was beaten in 10 races out of 20
* driver...
Forum: Stocks Feb 2, 2013, 5:32am
Replies: 6
Views: 331
Posted By tomorton
Re: Predictions for monday? Is this the top?

I think we would all agree it can't be known what the market will do. But we can be ready for when it does it. There is no valid technical reason why you would close a long position based on...
Forum: Technical Analysis Jan 31, 2013, 8:31am
Replies: 2
Views: 258
Posted By tomorton
Re: Thomas Bulkowski

Well researched performance studies of various candlestick and chart patterns. Some surprising results too, suggesting some well known candlestick patterns more often give the opposite outcome to...
Forum: Trading Journals Jan 28, 2013, 6:01am
Replies: 48
Views: 3,034
Posted By tomorton
Re: New Year New Plan

I don't think 15 trades a month is necessarily over-trading if that's your concern, it depends on the risk per trade, whether trades are effectively duplicates increasing your exposure to risk, your...
Forum: Indices Jan 27, 2013, 6:58am
Replies: 12
Views: 1,121
Posted By tomorton
Re: Why do Indices follow each other?

Surely, the de-coupling of the Nasdaq is down to the over-weight influence of Apple since it's launch. It's a unique case that doesn't prove your point. But do you have other examples?
Forum: Indices Jan 20, 2013, 8:50am
Replies: 307
Views: 11,756
Posted By tomorton
Re: Anyone shorting the Dow Jones? pt 2

Going beyond the theory, have people got short positions open on the Dow or sell orders above 13300?
Forum: Stocks Jan 11, 2013, 3:10pm
Replies: 10
Views: 430
Posted By tomorton
Re: how to avoid the dreaded gap downs

Exceptional moves against you are a pain but you can also expose your positions up to the exceptional moves that go with your trade direction. Use elastic limit orders.

Overnight, if you leave the...
Forum: Trading Journals Jan 10, 2013, 5:40am
Replies: 48
Views: 3,034
Posted By tomorton
Re: New Year New Plan

Good luck with this robertdaley.

As a free tip (which I have not seen elsewhere) I would suggest entering a limit order to close your trade which is initially way beyond your normal R:R -...
Forum: Trading Systems Sep 13, 2012, 8:03am
Replies: 7
Views: 616
Posted By tomorton
Re: Four Big Picture Order Methods-What Do you all find best?

Before yesterday I would have said All in, All out (at pre-set profit target).

However, I have this week had a situation where I got a second entry signal on a stock I was already long on and have...
Forum: Trading Journals Aug 27, 2012, 6:57am
Replies: 156
Views: 8,521
Posted By tomorton
Re: China's FTSE 100 swing trades

I'm sure this is sound jon. My look back at July hikkake swing oppportunities on the FTSE100 members confirms that r:r 1:1.5 would clearly be a winner. r2.0 does equally well but at 2.5 the pattern...
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