Psychology... the poll

This is a discussion on Psychology... the poll within the Psychology, Risk & Money Management forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by yacarob1 This type of thinking adds a new dimension to the problem and maybe unnecessarily complicates matters. ...

View Poll Results: Does psychology matter in trading?
Yes, without it, you are doomed to failure. 114 87.02%
No, it is overhyped. 17 12.98%
Voters: 131. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Mar 23, 2008, 11:35am   #46
 
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This type of thinking adds a new dimension to the problem and maybe unnecessarily complicates matters.

I prefer to concentrate on what I am doing rather than on what my opponents are doing...isn't this what Alex Ferguson preaches...get your own game plan right and it then doesn't really matter what your opponents do.

Surely, if you have a winning strategy, it has already automatically factored in what your opponents are doing, by virtue of the very fact that it is successful.
Understand. now this is where I see the personal preferance choice to the trader. Are they happy with that? If yes, excellent, churn that strat over and over. Chop wood carry water. Some people go through life in pursuit of knowledge so whats the knowledge behind the strat ? Whats the understanding ?

Does there need to be any? I'd say for some type of characters personalities yes. This is what drives them forward. Hence they will not be entirely satisfied with doing without knowing. As they are driven by ,experience of life in pursuit of knowledge.

Its personal and like old Paul Potts and his opera if he's arrived then he has. But if he has ambitions of being pav.(his technical performance level) then onwards he goes he still has much work to do, many years training. I mean he's singing and reaping the rewards but he can perform better. Be a better singer does he want to ? desire to ? his call.

But I've no doubt that the market exploits the typical human condition, which is also potentially interesting if we ask, how, or why . But I'm also open to the fact that just be my own projection of how I would like to think the short term speculators operate or think.

Even indicator types after enough exposure waiting for the lines to cross will often be thinking hmmm, ahh that action means my indicators will start to move lower then cross in about the next 5 bars. , lol maybe they do maybe they dont.

Ignorance is bliss, I can see why that ones come about
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 12:37pm   #47
 
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Without doubt, IMO. That is why I mentioned my nephew's progress in answer to yacorob's comment that psychology was considered a joke. I'm sure that my nephew practices it, every day, on his clients.

Two years ago, he took on a partner. Guess what degree that partner has? I'll let you guess! The business is, BTW, nothing more than selling a product.

Having said that, I believe that there is a difference between a person and a market, don't you? Very difficult to psychoanalise that but, if you can correctly, you're made.

Split
yes no doubt those two have a fair idea of how their cutomer base will respond, they can anticipate , they know what to do to get the customer in the frame of mind so the customer hands over money and exchange is made, a trade. Lets face it they have set the whole thing up in the first place , huh, huh ?

That market is one dodgy shopkeeper psychic powers it seems. Dispenses winning lotto tickets every few mins. until you read the small print on the back after you have bought it .

This is a winning lotto ticket now please pay us our jackpot.

Why those ****ers have done it again. I'm the payer and I bought it ... Dodgier than a J P Morgan Bearns steal .
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 1:04pm   #48
 
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shadowninja started this thread Ah, so psychology is important, then; without it, you'll burn your account on a losing strategy. Having discipline, remaining level-headed, etc will help you realise quickly that your system isn't working.
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 1:55pm   #49
 
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Confucius might of said... even when falling to death knowledge important...

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Ah, so psychology is important, then; without it, you'll burn your account on a losing strategy. Having discipline, remaining level-headed, etc will help you realise quickly that your system isn't working.
A buddhist falls over a cliff hanging on by a branch ,see's a strawberry and thinks ahhh, what a nice strawberry, and eats it.branch gives way, then he falls on route to death savouring the sweet taste of natures given fruit.

Poor **** dont even know he's just eaten the sweet tasting fruit of deadly nightshade. And dies before he hits the rocks below. (ok so it was a long fall but see my point or a point?)

He went through all the stillness of enjoying the fruit in the moment but if only that Buhhdist knew his fruits he would of experienced a longer journey to the rocks below.

ommmm, ommmmm, ommmm, yes please John, 2 pints.

peace y'all.
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 2:00pm   #50
 
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So it seems psychology is important (poll says so) and sure, I agree with that & same goes for discipline also. However, I don't think there's much doubting that it's also been over-hyped. Some people are making a very nice living out of that it would seem - I have no problem with that: no one forces you to buy their products.

Yes, we do need to keep it in proportion. Where I come from it was called "getting your act together".
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 2:06pm   #51
 
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So it seems psychology is important (poll says so) and sure, I agree with that & same goes for discipline also. However, I don't think there's much doubting that it's also been over-hyped. Some people are making a very nice living out of that it would seem - I have no problem with that: no one forces you to buy their products.

Yes, we do need to keep it in proportion. Where I come from it was called "getting your act together".
hmm maybe on the professional trader psychologists circuit its pumped and hyped but, eyeballing or getting T2W to say how many threads are in Psychology section here ? Its Way down and underhyped ? No one hardly ventures into much. based on thread counts?

But again the very fact that an Exchange doesnt want traders to trade in a controlled manner what does that mean ? about the people and industry who sets this business up ?

yahh theres ONLY 248 psych threads out of ? 26,000 odd hmm is that right ? seems tiny..... its hardly being rammed down throats, for a reason I expect, like the exhange said. NOPE no education of traders about controlled trading please.
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 2:38pm   #52
 
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hmm maybe on the professional trader psychologists circuit its pumped and hyped but, eyeballing or getting T2W to say how many threads are in Psychology section here ? Its Way down and underhyped ? No one hardly ventures into much. based on thread counts?

But again the very fact that an Exchange doesnt want traders to trade in a controlled manner what does that mean ? about the people and industry who sets this business up ?

yahh theres ONLY 248 psych threads out of ? 26,000 odd hmm is that right ? seems tiny..... its hardly being rammed down throats, for a reason I expect, like the exhange said. NOPE no education of traders about controlled trading please.
Fair comment. I was indeed referring to the world outside T2W. Do traders turn to the psychology / discipline areas when they find that trading is not working how it should (ie loads of dosh for no effort) ? It was a phase I went through when I was trying every indicator and strategy that I could read about. In the end I worked out for myself that once you get yourself a system that works, the psychology bit is nice for honing and smoothing off any rough edges. I think it was dbphoenix who said something like the most important thing is to actually learn how to trade from first principles.

Maybe if as folklore has it, that 80% traders fail then perhaps they're not cut out for trading and no amount of counselling (or call it what you will) will solve their problem?

I find the psychology threads some of the most interesting on T2W and the endless search on others for the holy grail indicator can get a bit wearisome (for me). But then I don't enjoy wandering round a golf course in the wind and rain but apparently millions do!
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 3:07pm   #53
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There has to be a psychological reason for Blackbears' metamorphosis, because I cannot, for the life of me figure out what it is.
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 3:31pm   #54
 
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Fair comment. I was indeed referring to the world outside T2W. Do traders turn to the psychology / discipline areas when they find that trading is not working how it should (ie loads of dosh for no effort) ? It was a phase I went through when I was trying every indicator and strategy that I could read about. In the end I worked out for myself that once you get yourself a system that works, the psychology bit is nice for honing and smoothing off any rough edges. I think it was dbphoenix who said something like the most important thing is to actually learn how to trade from first principles.

Maybe if as folklore has it, that 80% traders fail then perhaps they're not cut out for trading and no amount of counselling (or call it what you will) will solve their problem?

I find the psychology threads some of the most interesting on T2W and the endless search on others for the holy grail indicator can get a bit wearisome (for me). But then I don't enjoy wandering round a golf course in the wind and rain but apparently millions do!
Hmm great sportsman , seem to have all the time in the world when on the field of play heads up looking forwards. They can see all the plays. I dont think it will be any different for traders.

But easy money? i think they have dedicated their lives to it to get to that level of functioning. Someone mentioned football MAn U. etc, those players got it easy, most have had 12 years of schooling following the football or FA rule book, all they gotta worry about is playing their game well, someones given them the definitive rule book of how it should be played.

In trading though ? lol its like asking someone who doesnt know football to step on the pitch go one on one with Pele' ohh and play to the rules of the game too . Not only have they got to figure out FA guidlines through observation and participation but also be skilled enough to fake body swerve past pele' and stick one in his net.

Split said Psycho analysis of the market? thast exactly what i think a trader may be better off doing to develop his strat. The market (speculation) will need to position people short to go long , ditto in reverse.

They need a product they need to generate supply, they need to unwind that product they need to create demand. Maybe the market today has already become its own functioning entity of mass minds operating as a collective that automatically facillitate that or those 2 requirements.

hmm effecient market hypothesis or is it hypothese ? I dunno , anyway only this effeciency isnt about tangable price reality its about effecient numbers of market participants become more effecient as a living mass of energy to generate supply and demand which creates the opportunity to wholesale and retail the product, i.e. money.

thats becomming more effecient? Maybe its a normal extension of different class of human ability. Drones, worker bee type stuff who service the queen (the market) .

Maybe the glorious patterns in the market will always, always be . Its nature. natural.

Best sink a beer and think on.

cheers
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 7:36pm   #55
 
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Hmm great sportsman , seem to have all the time in the world when on the field of play heads up looking forwards. They can see all the plays. I dont think it will be any different for traders.

But easy money? i think they have dedicated their lives to it to get to that level of functioning. Someone mentioned football MAn U. etc, those players got it easy, most have had 12 years of schooling following the football or FA rule book, all they gotta worry about is playing their game well, someones given them the definitive rule book of how it should be played.

In trading though ? lol its like asking someone who doesnt know football to step on the pitch go one on one with Pele' ohh and play to the rules of the game too . Not only have they got to figure out FA guidlines through observation and participation but also be skilled enough to fake body swerve past pele' and stick one in his net.

Split said Psycho analysis of the market? thast exactly what i think a trader may be better off doing to develop his strat. The market (speculation) will need to position people short to go long , ditto in reverse.

They need a product they need to generate supply, they need to unwind that product they need to create demand. Maybe the market today has already become its own functioning entity of mass minds operating as a collective that automatically facillitate that or those 2 requirements.

hmm effecient market hypothesis or is it hypothese ? I dunno , anyway only this effeciency isnt about tangable price reality its about effecient numbers of market participants become more effecient as a living mass of energy to generate supply and demand which creates the opportunity to wholesale and retail the product, i.e. money.

thats becomming more effecient? Maybe its a normal extension of different class of human ability. Drones, worker bee type stuff who service the queen (the market) .

Maybe the glorious patterns in the market will always, always be . Its nature. natural.

Best sink a beer and think on.

cheers
Might not have expressed myself very well - when i said "easy money" - i was being rather sarcastic. I think it's only those who don't really have any experience who would think that there's any easy money to be had. Perhaps that changes when you become a black belt - George Soros seems to have cracked it. (But any expert I've known in other fields never said it was easy).

I Like your psychological approach of consideration over a beer. In the past I've been able to solve most of the world's problems with the help of a few mates anda few beers!
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 7:56pm   #56
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Might not have expressed myself very well - when i said "easy money" - i was being rather sarcastic. I think it's only those who don't really have any experience who would think that there's any easy money to be had. Perhaps that changes when you become a black belt - George Soros seems to have cracked it. (But any expert I've known in other fields never said it was easy).

I Like your psychological approach of consideration over a beer. In the past I've been able to solve most of the world's problems with the help of a few mates anda few beers!
I wonder if Gordon goes down the pub, much. With the price of a pint, these days,I fear his Scottish character might be getting the better of him.
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 8:52pm   #57
 
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I wonder if Gordon goes down the pub, much. With the price of a pint, these days,I fear his Scottish character might be getting the better of him.
I'd heard that after his unsuccessful bash at gold trading he'd been doing one of these NLP programmes in how to monitor spending & borrowing - apparently it was organised indirectly by some bloke called Tony. Looks like he's blown that too!
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Old Mar 23, 2008, 8:53pm   #58
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I'd heard that after his unsuccessful bash at gold trading he'd been doing one of these NLP programmes in how to monitor spending & borrowing - apparently it was organised indirectly by some bloke called Tony. Looks like he's blown that too!
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Old Mar 24, 2008, 8:43am   #59
 
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Originally Posted by Crap Buddist View Post
hmm maybe on the professional trader psychologists circuit its pumped and hyped but, eyeballing or getting T2W to say how many threads are in Psychology section here ? Its Way down and underhyped ? No one hardly ventures into much. based on thread counts?

But again the very fact that an Exchange doesnt want traders to trade in a controlled manner what does that mean ? about the people and industry who sets this business up ?

yahh theres ONLY 248 psych threads out of ? 26,000 odd hmm is that right ? seems tiny..... its hardly being rammed down throats, for a reason I expect, like the exhange said. NOPE no education of traders about controlled trading please.
This is easily explained. Newbies don't care about learning what they need to know in order to become successful at trading. They only care about what they want to know, ie/ how to make money as quickly as possible. This is why they pursue indicator and system threads with zeal and mainly because they cling to the idiotic notion that systems take the psychology out of trading
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Old Mar 24, 2008, 10:35am   #60
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This is easily explained. Newbies don't care about learning what they need to know in order to become successful at trading. They only care about what they want to know, ie/ how to make money as quickly as possible. This is why they pursue indicator and system threads with zeal and mainly because they cling to the idiotic notion that systems take the psychology out of trading

NT, how would you personally define the 'trading psychology' inherent within your method? Try not to answer my question with another question.
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