80% success rate

This is a discussion on 80% success rate within the Psychology, Risk & Money Management forums, part of the Methods category; hello folks, Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Mar 15, 2007, 12:13am   #1
Joined Oct 2004
80% success rate

hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2007, 12:53am   #2
 
rols's Avatar
Joined Sep 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by vetten
hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people
http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...oon+on+a+stick
__________________
The future ainít what it used to be. Yogi Berra.
rols is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2007, 1:02am   #3
 
wasp's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
Heard of this one..................?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/show...6&postcount=77
wasp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2007, 4:18am   #4
Joined Oct 2004
80% success rate

vetten started this thread wow, you guys rols and wasp are sooooooooooo funny!

because you guys are so open minded, I`ll give yous an example of what I mean.
check it out if you two want to go anywhere........

go to forex factory to a thread called "4 hour strategy" 300+ pips per month and tell
me what you think
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2007, 4:54am   #5
 
wasp's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
300 pips a month is that it? That's easy....

Why not get some charts and look at them... I could post you a couple of FX ones that offer 2 or 3 trades a year no problem. Would take half hour of analysis and they would be blatant in real time too.

Its much more of a challenge to make 20 trades a month and still come out okay.
wasp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2007, 5:28am   #6
Joined Oct 2004
vetten started this thread [QUOTE=wasp]300 pips a month is that it? That's easy....

didn`t I say 300 +++++++++++++++++++++
and if that can be achieved with small trades and with a consistent system, well that`s
a good start aint it.
yep always so good to look down on those trials and it makes you feel so much better aye.

well at least you dont need this system so please dont look at it and somebody else has
a chance.............the meek will inherit the earth!
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 15, 2007, 6:05am   #7
 
wasp's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by vetten
didn`t I say 300 +++++++++++++++++++++
and if that can be achieved with small trades and with a consistent system, well that`s
a good start aint it.
yep always so good to look down on those trials and it makes you feel so much better aye.

well at least you dont need this system so please dont look at it and somebody else has
a chance...
Not knocking it, just saying mate.... I agree it is a very tidy start.

I still think 3-4 trades a year is too easy. That should be something anyone can do really....

Quote:
Originally Posted by vetten
..........the meek will inherit the earth!
I thought it was the cheese makers?
wasp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 22, 2007, 10:56pm   #8
 
firewalker99's Avatar
Joined Jul 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by vetten
hello folks,

Jilly B was posting her journal and was very succesfull with a success rate of about 80% of her trades and money to count at the end of it.
After all I suppose it is possible to have a success rate of 80% and still lose money.

Does any-one know of 80% success raters which are profitable and freely available for me to
have a look at?

thanks people
The real question should be, do you need to win 80% of the time to make money?
firewalker99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 22, 2007, 11:07pm   #9
Joined Oct 2004
vetten started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by firewalker99
The real question should be, do you need to win 80% of the time to make money?
maybe I`m ambitious firewalker, but I wouldn`t mind a system that`s right 80%+ of the time.
I do have a very good system now, but it would be kind of nice to place any excess money
if I get a very reliable signal from another system.
If I have a 80% system, there might be some set-ups in here that statisticly are even better
bets than 80%.
so come on walker there must be 80% systems that are public knowledge, so just point me
in the right direction, even if you dont need one.
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 22, 2007, 11:24pm   #10
TWI
 
TWI's Avatar
Joined Jan 2004
The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.
__________________
"I refuse to tiptoe quietly through life
only to arrive safely at death"
TWI is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: firewalker99
Old Mar 23, 2007, 12:05am   #11
 
fibonelli's Avatar
Joined Oct 2006
Vetten
Adding to TWI's message, you also need to understand Tharp's formula on expectancy.
__________________
Audere est Facere

"The trend is your friend and divergences are your best friend until the bend at the end"

Party on like it's 1930, until Mr C (Wave) gatecrashes the party.
fibonelli is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 23, 2007, 9:42am   #12
 
firewalker99's Avatar
Joined Jul 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWI
The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.
Excellent post. I second that.

Vetten: how about this for a system (take any market you wish as an example):
- go long when market opens
- wait to close trade when trade is in profit (you can hold overnight)
- set your stop at 5 times the average daily range

Have a look at last 3 months (YM, NQ, DAX,...) and this system should give you at least 90% wins (because we've been in an steady uptrend).
But how about the one or two big drawdowns (recent correction) where you lose out all of the gains of 10 or 20 trades? Winning % means nothing, expectancy is key.
firewalker99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2007, 8:46pm   #13
Joined Oct 2004
vetten started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by TWI
The thing vetten you fail to grasp is saying 80% success means nothing. What is important is positive expectancy. Google it and learn something. Once you have positive expectancy, all that matters is the volume you can apply to that system before slippage gets the better of you.
As for these systems posted on boards. I had a quick look at the one you posted. I would be extremely sceptical before you have made those returns yourself. Very easy for people who never ever risked a bean to make unsubstantiated claims about untradable systems. The best thing you will get from the boards is some ideas you did not consder yourself, after that the hard work begins and eventually, if you apply yourself correctly you may make a few pennies.
hi TWI..........thanks for your reply.
I think there`s nothing wrong with looking over 80%+ success systems and see how they
act over a longer period of time. Positive expectancy would ofcourse be part of testing of these systems before committing any money in the market.

I printed out JillyB`s system but I havent had a look yet. I think she traded the Dow ETF, DIA,
so with 9 million shares traded daily on average, slippage wont be much of a problem.
It`s also a end of day system (although she used it also on shorter time frames) and I would place limit orders.

I know all about the hard work. My present system took me 3 years to find and tweak and its making me over 100%. The only problem is that the allocated funds for this system are limited,
so I`m looking at other systems.
If I can find something for the DIA, size wont be a problem!
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2007, 8:52pm   #14
Joined Oct 2004
vetten started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by fibonelli
Vetten
Adding to TWI's message, you also need to understand Tharp's formula on expectancy.
Hi fib, how you`re doing?

well that`s probably what TWI was saying with his positive expectancy.
mind you, I think Tharp is no trader but a coach, but nevertheless that sort of people
still write fat books about trading
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 24, 2007, 8:59pm   #15
Joined Oct 2004
vetten started this thread Hi f/walker,

I appreciate you telling me your secret strategy, but if you don`t mind I`ll pass.
I think there`s nothing wrong looking at 80%+ strategies, so if you have those in your tool
kit that have a 80% success rate beyond 3 months survival, well I`ll just have a look.
thanks for now
vetten is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Anyone daytrade the dax with success herbie14 Indices 8 Feb 7, 2009 3:52am
How do you count success? xpertstocktrader Home Trader 20 Oct 4, 2006 4:05am
My Success with Finspreads triggerhappy T2W Feedback & Announcements 6 Jan 24, 2006 7:33pm
99% Success rate .. JJL3142 Trading Systems 7 Jan 30, 2003 8:18pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)