Mark Douglas Interview

This is a discussion on Mark Douglas Interview within the Psychology, Risk & Money Management forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by Shakone Why? If a casino allows card counters to come in and play as long as they ...

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Old Mar 7, 2013, 7:27pm   #16
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Shakone View Post
Why? If a casino allows card counters to come in and play as long as they want, then those casinos won't be successful, just like many traders.

Only casinos that don't allow this and don't allow excessive risk and ensure they have an edge will prosper, surely.
all very logical and correct,but there is no true comparison. Card counters are stopped by the casino and more recently they are set up so that you cant have an edge at anytime.
A trader can trade where he likes and with whom he likes and theoretically can go on winning and winning. Even when we start trading we beleive we have and edge after reading one book,but surely that doesnt apply if we go to the casino,a gut feeling for red17 cant be the same feeling as my favorite pattern.

Ive probably gone of track a touch,sorry
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 7:42pm   #17
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Lord Flasheart View Post
all very logical and correct,but there is no true comparison. Card counters are stopped by the casino and more recently they are set up so that you cant have an edge at anytime.
A trader can trade where he likes and with whom he likes and theoretically can go on winning and winning. Even when we start trading we beleive we have and edge after reading one book,but surely that doesnt apply if we go to the casino,a gut feeling for red17 cant be the same feeling as my favorite pattern.

Ive probably gone of track a touch,sorry
That's not too far off from successful traders and 'some' spreadbet companies though. They may stop you playing.

Now wondering if there are times when the market stops (or discourages) you from playing.
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 8:03pm   #18
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Triggerfish View Post
Edge in trading is simply the ability of the trader to be RIGHT consistently. The markets are always right and the bigger question is are you the trader on the right side or on the wrong side?

Casinos have an edge hence they are in business, it is the odds that are in their advantage to win over time. So it is fair to conclude the odds, the rules of payout and restrictions of bets in place are part of a system of controls. eg. Roulette. These rules are there for their own benefit and not the punter.

In blackjack, it is similar but it is based on cards yet there is a possiblilty of beating the system because you can count cards, it is based on the probability and understanding the odds and play it to your advantage and not theirs. Casinos have rules and the punter usually plays along the rules, if you do that, you lose.

In trading, an example would be riding the trends. The markets moves in a particular way and for the trader to win, it needs to see this beforehand so to establish a system to take advantage of it. That system would be defined by rules to allow the trader to enter and exit to complete the trade or trades. The example is simply following your system to ride the trends, some will lose but most will win, and for the ones that wins, they can win more because you are allowing it to run, just like a trend. The edge itself is that your winners will earn you a lot more than the losers so the advantage you have over time is you will win.

The casino rules are a system and the punter who does not have one will lose.
The markets is a system and the trader without a plan / system will lose.

How can you beat an enemy without knowing their weakness?
Not sure why you are not getting the casino analogy. Especially when you have quoted similar previously.

My conclusion is that you are either someone else from the person that originally was posting in 2009 and 2010 or something has happened and you have taken several many steps back, this would equate to blowups.

when you first joined you had some great insights and good contributions, something has happened since the break you had in 2010 to when you were active again of late.

I'm sure many on here can help if you explain what has happened.

Lee
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 8:12pm   #19
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Shakone View Post
That's not too far off from successful traders and 'some' spreadbet companies though. They may stop you playing.

Now wondering if there are times when the market stops (or discourages) you from playing.
yes but theres always direct access.If you win at a casino they will put you in a hotel for the night and hope you come back the next day. They know you cant win over time,SB have a small % that win. Fixed odds bookies wont let you win and will even try and stop you betting if they consider your staking and pattern irregular.

Wouldnt it have been nice to be a card counter in the early 60s in the uk. I guess it was safer than vegas.I wonder how many counters there were before thorps book came out.Even in the 70s and early 80s it was still possible to exploit the counting edge.I supposed a few have ways that they mechanically can exploit the sb firms nowadays but probably very few.
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 8:42pm   #20
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Lord Flasheart View Post
yes but theres always direct access.If you win at a casino they will put you in a hotel for the night and hope you come back the next day. They know you cant win over time,SB have a small % that win. Fixed odds bookies wont let you win and will even try and stop you betting if they consider your staking and pattern irregular.

Wouldnt it have been nice to be a card counter in the early 60s in the uk. I guess it was safer than vegas.I wonder how many counters there were before thorps book came out.Even in the 70s and early 80s it was still possible to exploit the counting edge.I supposed a few have ways that they mechanically can exploit the sb firms nowadays but probably very few.
Yes you're right. They are not the same thing. But it is still a reasonable comparison.

Thorp was able to prove it mathematically, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there were plenty of 'naturals' who had their own system, just like there were those who figured out the Black Scholes option pricing idea before it was published.

The edge is actually quite small in casinos. I think from 0.1-1% The edge if you're card counting probably not much more than 1%. Still would have taken capital, skill and a lot of discipline.
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 8:47pm   #21
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Lord Flasheart View Post
yes but theres always direct access.If you win at a casino they will put you in a hotel for the night and hope you come back the next day. They know you cant win over time,SB have a small % that win. Fixed odds bookies wont let you win and will even try and stop you betting if they consider your staking and pattern irregular.

Wouldnt it have been nice to be a card counter in the early 60s in the uk. I guess it was safer than vegas.I wonder how many counters there were before thorps book came out.Even in the 70s and early 80s it was still possible to exploit the counting edge.I supposed a few have ways that they mechanically can exploit the sb firms nowadays but probably very few.
Do you really think that a spread betting company will stop you from betting variable sizes ?I have never been refused my $100 per pip after a string of losses on smaller sizes.If I bet $1,000 a pip , my spreadbetter goes into the fx market and covers himself.

One can use several different spreadbetting companies and several family accounts.
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 9:09pm   #22
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by 15 min tlb View Post
Do you really think that a spread betting company will stop you from betting variable sizes ?I have never been refused my $100 per pip after a string of losses on smaller sizes.If I bet $1,000 a pip , my spreadbetter goes into the fx market and covers himself.

One can use several different spreadbetting companies and several family accounts.
you really are a fool,did i say that sb firms stop you betting for varying stake,read posts properly before you respond in future and as for you betting in $1000 pp,weve been over this and you really showed yourself up.Please dont turn this thread on me and grow up before you are barred
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 9:12pm   #23
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Shakone View Post
Yes you're right. They are not the same thing. But it is still a reasonable comparison.

Thorp was able to prove it mathematically, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if there were plenty of 'naturals' who had their own system, just like there were those who figured out the Black Scholes option pricing idea before it was published.

The edge is actually quite small in casinos. I think from 0.1-1% The edge if you're card counting probably not much more than 1%. Still would have taken capital, skill and a lot of discipline.
The edge on the one deck game in the 60s was huge.You could even be 100% sure of the next card towards the end of a deck. The edge at the moment is close to what you say and less if you play basic strategy. BTW I counted for 6 months a long while ago,just before they brought out the multi shuffler which has basically killed any chance of counting in the uk.
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Old Mar 7, 2013, 9:15pm   #24
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

Just to add out of interest for those that want to know.Card counting is really easy and can be learnt in one afternoon,you do not need to be rain man. It is a simple +1/-1 count for each card,so you just have to follow the dealer as he deals.When the score hits a certain level,you know you have a positive outcome and are above 50%
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Old Mar 8, 2013, 10:21am   #25
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

Lee Shepherd
Assumptions are not the way forward.....maybe you are not ready.

QUOTE: "So....... Do you want to trade".....What is more important?, reacting by emotions like everyone else and jump into the markets.....or.....the alternative?.....thats another question for you!

QUOTE: "I've fully understood the analogy's".....My original post is NOT an analogy so therefore you have not understood the meaning.....it is in fact a very serious and deep question which is unfinished.....maybe I should come back 3 years time again!
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Old Mar 8, 2013, 1:44pm   #26
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by Triggerfish View Post
Lee Shepherd
Assumptions are not the way forward.....maybe you are not ready.

QUOTE: "So....... Do you want to trade".....What is more important?, reacting by emotions like everyone else and jump into the markets.....or.....the alternative?.....thats another question for you!

QUOTE: "I've fully understood the analogy's".....My original post is NOT an analogy so therefore you have not understood the meaning.....it is in fact a very serious and deep question which is unfinished.....maybe I should come back 3 years time again!
Hi Triggerfish,

Firstly allow me to apologise if you have taken any offence by my recent posts to you, as I said in the posts they were not intended that way.

I am by no means a professional in this business but if you ask me if I make profit on a regular basis and have done for many, many years then the answer is yes.

I feel that I may have alienated myself towards you so I will no longer offer my help, if I could have been a help at all to which personally.....I don't think I could have been.

So I wish you the best of luck.

If you are in any doubt to which I think you may be regarding my trading then please feel free to nose at my recent 30 day trading history below.

For ease of working out it goes as follows:

19 Trades
13 Winners = £10,202 / 13 trades = average of £784
6 Losers = £3,764 / 6 trades = average of £627

This includes:
12 Shorts
7 Longs

Win rate is 2.16 to 1
Monetary rate is 2.71 to 1

Biggest loss is £894
Biggest gain is £2,545

Profit/winnings over 30 days is £6,438. Currently only 2k but usually equates to 80% of winnings/profits. I live a humble but good life.

Note: I have edited a lot out of the statement as I do not wish to disclose my trades past or present to you for which can include (IMO) critical levels and entries/exits that are still in play. Many (good traders) on here know roughly what I've been trading of late, some have very good insight....However, You will not be one of them.

Good luck to you and enjoy what you can get.

Lee Shepherd
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Old Mar 8, 2013, 1:51pm   #27
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Hi Triggerfish,

Firstly allow me to apologise if you have taken any offence by my recent posts to you, as I said in the posts they were not intended that way.

I am by no means a professional in this business but if you ask me if I make profit on a regular basis and have done for many, many years then the answer is yes.

I feel that I may have alienated myself towards you so I will no longer offer my help, if I could have been a help at all to which personally.....I don't think I could have been.

So I wish you the best of luck.

If you are in any doubt to which I think you may be regarding my trading then please feel free to nose at my recent 30 day trading history below.

For ease of working out it goes as follows:

19 Trades
13 Winners = £10,202 / 13 trades = average of £784
6 Losers = £3,764 / 6 trades = average of £627

This includes:
12 Shorts
7 Longs

Win rate is 2.16 to 1
Monetary rate is 2.71 to 1

Biggest loss is £894
Biggest gain is £2,545

Profit/winnings over 30 days is £6,438. Currently only 2k but usually equates to 80% of winnings/profits. I live a humble but good life.

Note: I have edited a lot out of the statement as I do not wish to disclose my trades past or present to you for which can include (IMO) critical levels and entries/exits that are still in play. Many (good traders) on here know roughly what I've been trading of late, some have very good insight....However, You will not be one of them.

Good luck to you and enjoy what you can get.

Lee Shepherd
good effort. looks like you are managing the losers well which for me is half the battle.
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Old Mar 8, 2013, 4:31pm   #28
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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good effort. looks like you are managing the losers well which for me is half the battle.
Hi Cablemonster,

The losses is where its all at. Taking profit is easy, cutting losses is not so. As long as the principles add up then one will be on the right side of trading. BTW, being on the right side does not necessarily mean they are making money but at least they know where they are not.

This is where trading systems come in handy....find one that constantly loses, flip it on its head and you've got a winnner. Its that simple. But why do most people fail.....because they don't stick to the plan and change mentality from one trade to the next. Consistency is in the eye of the beholder, not the markets

I done a trading diary on here in 2008 which detailed (very detailed) all my trades including screenshots. They were also called out live in a trading room (private but still available on here). If it's any help to you there is a section that details specifically about the losses. The diary was only meant initially for a few months but due to having a good run with minimal drawdowns I extended this for a further few months to show how I handled the losses.

After having a good run I knew it was only a matter of time before I got caught out, this is why it ran longer than initially planned for as this is where people can learn most from. We learn mostly from our downfalls.

Like I say, if it's any help to you or anyone else you'll find it by typing into google 'Lee Shepherd trading'.

Have a good weekend.

Lee
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Old Mar 8, 2013, 5:12pm   #29
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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This is where trading systems come in handy....find one that constantly loses, flip it on its head and you've got a winnner. Its that simple.

Lee
That statement sends up a very large red flag for me.


The majority of trading systems are break even. Transaction costs and broker shinnangins result in losses. The rate at which the losses destroy the account are usually a function of leverage used, and luck

Flipping a break even system results in a break even system. The transaction costs remain.

With the obvious exception of eroding the account due to transaction costs finding a system with a genuine negative edge is as difficult a task as finding a system with a positive edge.
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Old Mar 8, 2013, 5:48pm   #30
 
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Re: Mark Douglas Interview

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Originally Posted by the hare View Post
That statement sends up a very large red flag for me.


The majority of trading systems are break even. Transaction costs and broker shinnangins result in losses. The rate at which the losses destroy the account are usually a function of leverage used, and luck

Flipping a break even system results in a break even system. The transaction costs remain.

With the obvious exception of eroding the account due to transaction costs finding a system with a genuine negative edge is as difficult a task as finding a system with a positive edge.
Hi the hare,

You are absolutely right in what you say. I was getting at a negative system not a breakeven one. Both are hard to find because if you have found one then you automatically have the other.

I try and be as explanitive as I can be with my posts but to be honest I think they are already too long for most to even bother to read so I try and keep them as short as possible but of course this in itself poses problems as they are not explained to the fullest. I can't get everything down in just one or even a few posts.

There are systems out there and many that work periodically and those that have been working for many years, even as far as over a decade. The real part of any system and holy grail is oneself.

Good to have pointed it out though.

Lee
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