Coin flips psychologically better??

This is a discussion on Coin flips psychologically better?? within the Psychology, Risk & Money Management forums, part of the Methods category; DT and Shakone: good points raised by both. Ultimately, I still believe it doesn't really matter whether markets are random ...

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Old Aug 3, 2012, 4:50am   #31
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

DT and Shakone: good points raised by both.

Ultimately, I still believe it doesn't really matter whether markets are random or not.
Trade results and their distribution are, that was the point I was making.

Shakone, I can ssee what you mean, even on a no brainer day (ECB has a brainfart
for example ) direction and range of movement may be pretty clear, but you
will never know in advance if that is truly correct to the tick as you say.

DT, I'm neither trying to prove or disprove markets are random, as I said it
doesn't really matter to me anyway.
Trade results are random, that is the main point I was raising.
I agree with a lot of the points you raise as well.
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 4:50am   #32
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

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Originally Posted by 0b101 View Post
To trade a real auction is real skill. Lot of people can not do it and get angry and rubbish trading. Arrogance will get u nowhere in this game. Skill is wot U need.

Trading chart only is 4 foolhardy gambler. May aswell random guess and flip coin...it all gambler have.
Troll denied
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 5:29am   #33
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Have any of you ever seen a random generated chart? I am talking of a chart where the direction is generated by a function designed to be random? I might just create one for you when my Internet is back online and if I have time (new born in the house). I did years ago and it wasn't really a surprise that the resulting chart looks nothing like the typical chart. To say it's random without doing due diligence is misleading
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 8:03am   #34
 
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

Bottom line is - nobody trades @ random - well, except for our resident to$$er.

The price charts are not the market, merely the result of trading.

Fact is - they don't throw off lots of nice, playable, repeatable patterns - this doesn't make markets random. In fact, it says more about the people looking for patterns in time spliced historical price data. Why should this representation of the market action be resolvable to a few price patterns anyway?

Just find the pattern, get your R:R right and trade the pattern for life! Problem solved, eh?

Now - of course, you can compare random charts and market generated charts if you like. On the other hand, you could put charts to one side for a second and consider the actual marketplace, why people trade and what their perceptions might be at any time.
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 10:39am   #35
 
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

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Originally Posted by forker View Post
Have any of you ever seen a random generated chart? I am talking of a chart where the direction is generated by a function designed to be random? I might just create one for you when my Internet is back online and if I have time (new born in the house). I did years ago and it wasn't really a surprise that the resulting chart looks nothing like the typical chart. To say it's random without doing due diligence is misleading
Forker, I think there's often a slight misunderstanding when I say random to some people. A coin that is 50-50 is random. A biased coin that is 95% heads, 5% tails is also random. You could obviously trade the 2nd coin, but not the first. It's random, because the alternative to being random is that it is determined, fixed, a function of known variables, which you can be certain about. Which price never is, because price can be moved by individuals or institutions, and there's no way for you to know that.

I agree with you about most randomly generated charts.

It was posted before, but there was an experiment by Andrew Lo to see if people could distinguish random from real charts. The results were that some could with very high accuracy.

ARORA

if you want to have a go
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 11:24am   #36
 
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

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Originally Posted by Shakone View Post
ARORA

if you want to have a go
Stupid game....
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 11:28am   #37
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

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Originally Posted by Shakone View Post
Forker, I think there's often a slight misunderstanding when I say random to some people. A coin that is 50-50 is random. A biased coin that is 95% heads, 5% tails is also random. You could obviously trade the 2nd coin, but not the first. It's random, because the alternative to being random is that it is determined, fixed, a function of known variables, which you can be certain about. Which price never is, because price can be moved by individuals or institutions, and there's no way for you to know that.

I agree with you about most randomly generated charts.

It was posted before, but there was an experiment by Andrew Lo to see if people could distinguish random from real charts. The results were that some could with very high accuracy.

ARORA

if you want to have a go
okay, my misunderstanding
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 12:50pm   #38
 
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

I think we are in danger of people agreeing and falling out @ the same time.

The search for repeated patterns in charts IMO is a fools errand.

On the other hand, using charts, with an understanding of the market dynamics that create the action represented on the charts - that's where you start to make leaps forward.

Analyzing the crap out of price time series data without context or an understanding of market structure is not a sound approach in my opinion.
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 1:09pm   #39
 
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

Men who stare @ chart only all day R like mad scientist, Dr. Frankystein. We all all know wot happen to Frankystein and his munster. It all go rong EOD.
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Old Aug 3, 2012, 3:22pm   #40
 
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Re: Coin flips psychologically better??

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Men who stare @ chart only all day R like mad scientist, Dr. Frankystein. We all all know wot happen to Frankystein and his munster. It all go rong EOD.
Stop using "Google Translate" for your posts and hire a translator
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 6:07pm   #41
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Yes that's one of the many benefits.
Hare wot a zoo! Lulz
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 6:14pm   #42
 
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when you watch long enough you get a feel for the next flip
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 6:30pm   #43
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when you watch long enough you get a feel for the next flip
I could get u to flip your bums to pick up a 1 pence coin
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