Narrowgate Trading Daily Technical Analysis

I've developed my own trading system and proprietary indicators, which I have dubbed "Proverbs 16:3" (to give honor where honor is due) and plan to use this thread to document my level of success or failure. My primary interest is in the major currency pairs, which I trade daily using 15-minute charts.

GBPUSD trade initiated and completed

Will Duxon said:

My tentative plans:
Go long AUDUSD if price drops back down to the 0.7666 level without reversing the trend.

View attachment 228876

Same as above for GBPUSD if price drops to 1.3319.

View attachment 228878

Click to expand...

The potential GBPUSD trade mentioned above developed as anticipated, as noted in the chart appearing below...



I entered @ 1.3334 rather than 1.3319 in accordance with trailing support. Though AUDUSD also climbed north, as expected, it unfortunately never came down quite far enough to trigger an entry.

12:00 GMT Forex Market Update

The following represents my own personal opinion and is not meant to be prescriptive for any other traders…

I don’t know how long it will take to realize it, but at 0.7727 AUDUSD has run out of room to climb. Nonetheless, the pair is obviously bullish, so there is no way I’m shorting it any time soon.

EURGBP looks like it is trying to reverse from a southern to a northern trajectory, but will have to get above the 0.8563 handle to succeed in reversing the trend of its overall price range, which is still southbound.

EURJPY appears to be ready to head north once again, but has yet to complete the turn in a convincing manner, so it is not yet confirmed.

EURUSD has initiated a confirmed turn north.

GBPJPY needs to decide if it is going to turn north or keep heading south.

GBPUSD is still bullish.

USDCAD is still bearish overall, even though it is near the bottom of its typical price range and is trying to decide if it wants to take a break with a detour to the north or if it would prefer to continue south.

USDCHF’s reversal south is confirmed and it looks like it wants to keep heading that way.

USDJPY is in the same boat as USDCHF, though its inclination to keep heading south is not as strong.

S&P Futures Trade was Successful

I edited my first post because it looks to me like it is permanent, so I wanted to make it shorter and to the point. It used to contain an explanation for two of the charts there in which I said I would think about shorting S&P 500 futures if price climbed above the 2190 handle (see the last two Attached Thumbnails from that post).



As it turned out, I needed to do more than just think about it (see above chart). After barely reaching that level, the index wanted to come right back down, reaching my take profit target earlier this morning.

Just Waiting for the Right Moment

At 17:30 GMT I'm planning to short GBPJPY, USDCHF and USDJPY; and go long AUDUSD, EURUSD and XAUUSD.



At this point I'm simply monitoring them for the optimum moment to do so.

Long EURUSD @ 1.1255

Entered a long position at 18:38 GMT

Took advantage of two opportunities

Of the six assets I wrote that I was watching for the opportunity to make trades (see previous posts) I only selected two (though I am in a third trade right now with AUDUSD). I was long EURUSD, which I documented at the time, and I shorted USDJPY later. I've used arrows to mark my entry and exit points on the charts below.

05:00 GMT Technical Analysis Update

The following represents my own personal opinion and is not meant to be prescriptive for any other traders…

Yesterday I said that at 0.7727 AUDUSD had run out of room to climb, so no surprise that it pulled back. However, it dropped all the way down to 0.7634! The pair is still bullish though, so it’s likely to resume an upward trajectory soon.

No change from yesterday. EURGBP looks like it is trying to reverse from a southern to a northern trajectory, but will have to get above the 0.8563 handle to succeed in reversing the trend of its overall price range, which is still southbound.

EURJPY took a trip north over the last twenty-four hours, as anticipated. Its overall price range is slightly bullish, but the pair is smack in the center of it, so it could head in either direction.

No change in EURUSD’s confirmed uptrend.

GBPJPY is totally conflicted. The overall price range is bullish, but the day-to-day and hour-to-hour trends are both currently bearish.

The overall price range of GBPUSD is still bullish, but the day-to-day trend is noncommittal.

USDCAD is still bearish overall, but it looks like it wants to reverse the day-to-day trend to the north.

Even though USDCHF leaped up to 0.9737, the overall trend is still bearish.

USDJPY is still in the same boat as USDCHF.

09:30 GMT Update

A number of assets seem to be reversing their day-to-day trajectories:

AUDUSD, XAUUSD and SPX500 appear to be turning south, whereas GBPJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF look to be turning north.

17:30 GMT End-of-Week Technical Analysis

The overall price range is still headed north, but of course, AUDUSD is down day-to-day over the last 48 hours. I currently place significant support at the 0.7493 level and overall resistance at 0.7724.

The bearish bias of EURGBP’s overall price range is weakening, but the bullish day-to-day bias might be weakening as well. Consequently, I’m more inclined to wait to see if this pair rolls over rather than enter a long position now.

Everything is pointing north with EURJPY, so I entered a long position after its recent pullback to the 115.14 handle (but I might have to exit without much of a profit).

EURUSD’s day-to-day trend just turned south. I currently see significant support at the 1.1156 level and major support at 1.1035. I’m also keeping in mind that the overall price range turned north three days ago.

Like EURJPY, everything associated with GBPJPY is pointing north.

GBPUSD’s overall price range is bullish, but current day-to-day pressure is decidedly bearish. Right now I see significant support at 1.3186—but it’s falling. Major support is presently at 1.3105, but that level is rising

USDCAD has hit a significant zone of resistance at 1.3050, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will stop there. Presently, I see major resistance at 1.3162. Though the day-to-day push north is going strong, the overall price range is still bearish.

Again, though USDCHF’s day-to-day push north is going strong, the overall price range is still bearish. However, unlike USDCAD, this pair has not yet hit what I deem to be a significant zone of resistance, which I place at 0.9810 (and rising). Nonetheless, 0.9773 represents its own level of resistance as established by price action on August 29th, September 2nd and September 5th.

USDJPY’s overall price range is slightly bearish. The pair hit significant resistance at 103.04, which has since risen to 103.16 and is likely to move even higher. Obviously the bullish day-to-day sentiment has not yet weakened.

XAUUSD’s day-to-day trend is headed south with a good deal of momentum, but the overall price range is still bullish.

At 2150, SPX500 has almost hit what I see as a significant level of support, which I place at 2144.87.

Initial Plans for Next Week

AUDUSD is in a downtrend, but will have a hard time dropping more than another forty or so pips in my opinion, so I’m just going to sit on the sidelines for the time being.

I might go long EURGBP if it drops down somewhere between 0.8438 and 0.8451 without reversing the trend.

I will almost definitely go long if EURJPY drops a little below 115.09.

EURUSD has initiated a new day-to-day downtrend, but it was dramatic, so it would probably have to pop back up somewhere around 1.1245 before I would give serious consideration to shorting the pair.

I will almost definitely go long if GBPJPY drops a little below 136.03.

GBPUSD looks like a good pair to short if and when it pulls back to upper resistance.

USDCAD looks like a good pair to buy if and when it pulls back to support.

I might go long USDCHF anywhere between 0.9726 - 0.9745

I might go long USDJPY anywhere between 102.43 - 102.58

XAUUSD looks primed for a short position if and when it pulls back to upper resistance.

SPX500 (futures) blew through major support, so I’m sitting on the sidelines for the time being.

Long EURJPY

I'm pretty confident in my levels, so I've set my stop loss at 114.926 because if price does not rise from here I simply shouldn't be in this trade (see first chart).



I've chosen not to be overly ambitious and set my profit target at 115.391.

The only thing is, I have to hope the JPY Machine Orders and Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index figures that are about to be released don't mess this up.

RESULT: Take Profit Target Hit at approximately 01:55 GMT (see second chart).

Short EURUSD / 05:30 GMT

This is my second trade of the week. I'm seeing a level of resistance that I trust is likely to stop the pair from rising to 1.1253, combined with a downward trajectory that makes it reasonable to anticipate price dropping to at least 1.1230.



RESULT: I was stopped out of this trade at about 07:00 GMT so I'm going to be watching to see whether there are any additional signs that this pair might be reversing north.

After being stopped out of the trade following my shorting EURUSD, I believe I saw other indications that the pair is reversing north, so I entered a long position (see second chart), but the MT4 platform would not allow me to set my take profit target where I originally planned, so I had to place it at a level that did not meet my normal requirement of a minimum 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

RESULT: Right after I made the trade, EURUSD opted to turn around and head south as I had initially expected it to do. I originally had the right idea, but miscalculated when it would happen. When the pair was finally ready to act, it was giving me signals to the contrary. The only thing I see that I could do differently is to wait a little longer, perhaps requiring a fuller development of opposing signals, before countering my original plan.

My Analysis as the New Week Begins

AUDUSD pretty much bounced off support at 0.7494 just as anticipated. The jury is out however as to whether it will continue north or resume a southern trajectory.

EURGBP looks like it might be trying to initiate a major top and reverse south, but the jury is still out there too.

After heading north for only two days, EURJPY has turned south. It recently spent a couple of weeks bouncing back and forth between 112.280 and 114.067. Is it now going to do the same between 113.757 and 116.388?

EURUSD is still bearish after reversing south on Friday.

Like EURJPY, GBPJPY has reversed south after heading north for only two days.

GBPUSD remains bearish.

USDCAD remains bullish with significant momentum.

USDCHF remains bullish with weak momentum.

Like the other yen pairs, USDJPY has just turned south after two days of heading north.

XAUUSD remains decidedly bearish.

USD500 has ceased its trek to the south, at least for the time being.

I lost twice in a row with EURUSD. I'm hoping to regain at least some of my self-respect by successfully shorting GBPUSD from 1.3279 at 14:15 GMT. (UPDATE: I am off to a simply terrible start this week in that I was stopped out of this trade as well!)

Time for an adjustment?

I've experienced three losing trades in a row this week, which I find totally unacceptable, so I'm hoping this switch from fifteen-minute to five-minute charts will help me more accurately assess market conditions.

My first trade after the modifications was to go long AUDUSD:



RESULT: I opted to take profit on this trade @ 0.7564

Short EURJPY

I just spent about three to four hours riding EURJPY up from 114.00, but given the trend and current market structure, it seems to me I should be able to spend the next few hours riding it back down.



I placed my stop loss at 114.64 'cause if price goes any higher, it means I based the trade on a false premise and ought to get out of it as soon as possible. As suggested above, my profit target is 114.00, though in hindsight, I probably shouldn't have used a round number.



I had to abandon my plan and exit the trade at 114.40 since lines are suggesting EURJPY wants to reverse direction and head north. (It would have been better if I had gone with GBPJPY instead.)

Naked Forex

I plan to update this thread throughout the day as I note changes in individual pairs based primarily on price action. For example USDJPY appears to have finished climbing north, so I would not be surprised to see if fall a bit from here.



EURUSD is slightly bullish at the moment, but all in all, the pair is pretty much going nowhere. The same can be said of USDCHF, which is also getting nowhere fast.



And EURJPY looks inclined either to fall or to enter into consolidation at this point.



Unless the Index plans to initiate a reversal at this point, you can mark 17:18 GMT as the minute NarrowgateTrading saw an ideal moment to short the S&P.



At 18:00 GMT I look at the cable-yen and I see a pair that is trying to reverse north. Of course, it tried once before about seven hours ago without much success, but perhaps this time it will have better luck.



USDJPY and USDCHF both made sudden moves to the north that I did not anticipate and that I have no way of explaining, but at least I did say the latter was slightly bullish. As for the former, USDJPY caught me completely off guard.



Given USDJPY's and USDCHF's sudden change in sentiment, I think I'll end this little exercise (it's now 18:43 GMT) by commenting that a number of other pairs, such as GBPUSD and EURUSD look as if they are trying to reverse as well. In fact, AUDUSD and EURUSD look as if they are also going to take a stab at it, and even USDCAD has slowed it's ascent.

Sold EURJPY at 05:51 GMT

Based of the technicals I decided to short EURJPY per the following image:



Profit Target was hit at 06:41 GMT.

Trades Planned for 9/15/2016 GMT

Presently, I'm waiting for GBPUSD to stop pushing my intermediate envelop north so I can short this pair. Price is currently at 1.3262. (Update: Trade Executed)



GBPUSD has almost hit my target, so I'm hoping it doesn't take a bounce and then take hours to get back to where it was. Anyway, my first trade of the day was to go long EURGBP @ 0.8483:



EURGBP almost hit my take profit target a little after 09:00 GMT, but since it didn't quite get there, I'm now going to have to contend with the Retail Sales figures out of Great Britain. It would be nice to go long USDCAD if I could get a significant pullback.



It took EURGBP two hours to recover from the economic news, but my target was finally hit (and then some). It looks like USDCAD pulled back without reversing the trend, so now I need to decide if I really want to enter a long position, and if so, when.

Support for USDCAD at 1.3144



I put statistical trailing support for USDCAD at about 1.3144, so if I decide to enter a long position, I'm likely to do so if and when price reaches that level.