Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

Hello All.

Just a quick post to make any trader aware of some spreadsheets I co-created regarding losing streak probabilities.
Losing Streak Probability Spreadsheets

I wanted some accurate calculator for losing streaks, pref in excel format.
I found myself frustrated with misinformation on the WWW.

Lucky I managed to tie up with a probability "Guru" (& Coder) who helped me design a spreadsheet for this conundrum.

I just wanted to highlight these FREE Day Trading Spreadsheets for multiple Losing streaks to everyone here in the community at t2w.
I'll attach a couple of sample screenshots at the foot of this post;

firstly; It's accurate, and really is quite useful. There isn't really anything out there from what I can see that offers Multiple streak data within the same run series (No Of Trades).

I hope this might be of use to many traders.
There are various spreadsheets available from this webpage, including, Monte Carlo Sim, & Mersenne Twister simulations.

I didn't password protect the spreadsheets, so any expert coders/mathematicians out there can see exactly what's going on within these trading spreadsheets. (A lot of VB coding involved).
Enjoy my Day Trading Losing Streak Calculators
Best regards;
Dow-Boy.

Screenshot 1: Multiple Losing Streak Probability Calculator
Multiple Losing Streak Probability Calculator

Screenshot 2: Mersenne Twister Losing Streak Probability Calculator
Mersenne Twister Losing Streak Probability Calculator

"I Wish You Well In Your Journey & In Your Trading."

Trader Dow-Boy

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

Just To add,, if anybody wished to have the article in PDF format,
here's a direct link to a PDF regarding all the different versions of my Losing Streak Calculators..
Losing Streak Probability Calculator PDF

Thanks for all your time.

As always;
"I Wish You Well In Your Journey & In Your Trading."
Regards
Dow-Boy

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

Beware the Black Swan
(Taleb);)

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

I didn't look at it too much, but looking at the inputs, it looks like you've assumed that trade results are independent of each other. If so, I think you should probably mention that.

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

Here's a screenshot of the Mersenne Twister Simulation Version;
http://i.imgur.com/YDwU5.jpg

Have a look at the VB code,, or read through the post/pdf Hotch.
BruceZ wrote a piece describing how the code is implemented.

All the best
Dow-Boy

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

Oops!
Seems I over did it on the screenshot! :-(

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

So I was right. What are you expecting people to use this for?

Re: Losing Streak Probability Calculator (Multiple)
 

Bit of a circular argument really Hotch; Random Markets? Or,, can you predict future pricing?

I think you have to assume a random independent formula here.
So,, Larry Williams quotes: " after 3-4 loses, the chances of a winner next are greatly increased."
Dangerous; though you can see/understand his assumption.
IE. trading a breakout strategy,, after 3-4 false breakouts, one might assume that it is more likely the next trade would run in your favour.

Again, it's an argument that is conceptually quite agreeable on the face of it, BUT; (I hate that word) :-)
It is dangerous,, having a Martingale strategy that is saying,, if you lose, next trade increase your bet size, as you 'FEEL' there MIGHT be more chance of it this time being a winner.

This is why I think it's better to assume random number generation, so you don't have a mindset that is geared to adding to losing positions; hoping the next trade will be a winner.

The markets are very fickle,, now even more so than ever before.

You can have a different take on this (Larry Williams Style),
But be careful.

I hope they are useful for some traders.

Best regards
Dow-Boy
:-)
Day Trading