LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

Right, I've decided to "go for it" and start trading my mechanical system for S&P500 with real money.

To cut the long story short, the formulas are looking at open (previous day close), close, high and low over the previous three, four or five days and try to tell me whether I should buy or sell.

This was tested over the last 10 years of S&P data and the best formula (highest return compared to drawdown) was selected. Of course, historical profits can never guarantee future success. The biggest issue is if the stop loss (set in stone to 150 pips) gets triggered outside of S&P trading hours (currently 2.30pm - 9pm UK time), because my test data did not include out-of-hours movement.

Example:
Trade - Buy S&P @ 1260.0, SL 1245.0 (150 pips)
Order - Sell S&P @ 1244.0 (10 pips lower), SL 1259.0 (again 150 pips)

You can see results of 5 weeks' testing here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ng-system.html

What I like about this system is this:

1. it completely ignores fundamental analysis and 99% of technical analysis (it does not use any known indicators, but you can argue that my formulas are indicators on their own). You could say it's totally random :)

2. all trades are opened / closed at 9 pm, so you only need 0.5h per working day. You don't have to spend hours and hours in front of the screen and jump up at some news from EU or else. I am working full-time and have two wonderful little kids, so 0.5h daily is a lot of time for me.

3. you know that you can't lose more than 150 x stake per trade and 300 x stake per day. It's very easy to limit your risk to 1.5%, 3%, 6%, whichever you prefer. I will start initially with 3% risk per trade, but this will increase in 2 months' time, if I am successful.

4. 50% success rate is more than enough. Why ? Because you can only lose X amount of money on a losing trade whereas a winning trade can give you (a lot) more.
It's that 50% you're aiming for.

I am going to post live trades. If you have guts, you can follow them. I will try to make it easier for you and tell you IN ADVANCE how I will trade at 9 pm.

Oh my, what if it does not work ? Well.... I will come back to this forum with a different nickname perhaps ? hehehehe

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

ok, so I've opened a fresh account with Finspreads, because they allow you to trade S&P500 with 10p per point for 8 weeks.

My initial bankroll is £1000 (don't worry, I can afford losing it all), but I have only deposited £500 at the moment. Why should I keep too much of my money with some institution that I know almost nothing about ?

Finspreads offer "US SP 500 Rolling Spread". For some reason it's around 15-20 points higher that the actual S&P500. I will try to ask them about it at some point. Just wondering how this might affect my trading.

Initial deposit: £500
First trade:
Sell £0.20 S&P @ 1258.5, SL 1273.5
No opposite trade for now, as this trade is a bit unusual (there is bank holiday on Monday).

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

I wish you good luck with this.
My initial observations are that the stop is too wide for this type of trade to work as the importance of the data is nullified because of the wide stop.what are the expected returns on a £10,000 account in 12 months? Thanks

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

the s&p doesn't even move in "pips". 1258 to 1259 isnt 10 pips it is 1 handle or 4 ticks. might wana learn your market..

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

You are describing the emini contract, ES.

The full S&P500 futures contract (SPH) trades at a minimum of .10 index points = $25, so 15 points x 10 ticks per point = 150 ticks.

I think he means the full contract but he's trading at 10p stakes.

Peter

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

geez i never new that! lol. was kinda presuming with his 500 quid account he wasnt trading big spoos in the pit!

also you wil be lucky to get filled on .10's you will almost certainly be fille don 20s 40s 60s 80s etc..locals use the 10s to flip

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

LOL. you sig line still makes me laugh. Now that you're back can we get oily back too? I miss the two of you arguing over his stupidity!

Peter

Re: LIVE real money S&P500 daily mechanical trading
 

Hello, I'm not even trying to say that I have a lot of experience in trading. At the moment, I'm using a spread betting provider. They don't use lots, handles etc. In terms of "filling", it does not work this way, either. You just buy / sell at the price offered by spread betting company.

Thanks for the encouragement. Wishing everyone all the best in the New Year !