Bobl Auction at 10:00

traceyjc · Jun 10, 2009, 4:24am

Anyone have any thoughts on the €6bn bobl auction at 10?

Thinking of putting on a spread in a few minutes (flattener 5/10), Anyone thinking the same?

Martinghoul · Jun 10, 2009, 4:27am

Are you selling bobls, buying bunds? I would disagree, on the margins... Think bobl auction should go well here.

traceyjc · Jun 10, 2009, 4:51am

The flattener will be taken off at about 9.55, I agree that the auction will be good but I think the futures will have to recede a bit in the next few mins as I think the tail will be a bit larger than expected. I'm slightly onside in the spread at the mo

US10yr later on too, maybe another opportunity if this doesnt go very well

traceyjc · Jun 10, 2009, 5:14am

bad auction, 1.4 bid:cover, 20% held back: did anyone happen to get the average yield? they didnt say it over the squawk

Martinghoul · Jun 10, 2009, 5:37am

I don't know why you say it's a bad auction... I thought it went reasonably OK, as I see no tail and the bond is not coming off after the auction (auction cleared at 2.85%, I see it arnd 2.855% at the moment).

traceyjc · Jun 10, 2009, 5:50am

Well I suppose it's not the worst but based on the B:C was below avg (last 10: 1.56, last 3: 1.7) and the retention was at the upper end at 20%. No tail is good I suppose but the price action probably discounted the auction in from last week; I've only been looking at bonds for the past 2 months though so i'm really not an expert.
The 2/5 spread was pretty tasty as an overnight, any thoughts on steepner/flattener for the week?

Martinghoul · Jun 10, 2009, 6:21am

Personally, I think last week's bear flattening was overdone, 'cause it was a very crowded trade. I am strongly in favor of us bull steepening back. I do have a bias and a position, though, so take with a pinch of salt. Have you joined the STIR chatroom, btw?

Jun 10, 2009, 4:24am	#1
traceyjc Senior Member Member Since Apr 2009 102 Posts	Bobl Auction at 10:00 Anyone have any thoughts on the €6bn bobl auction at 10? Thinking of putting on a spread in a few minutes (flattener 5/10), Anyone thinking the same?

Jun 10, 2009, 4:27am	#2
Martinghoul Legendary Member Member Since Feb 2009 2,456 Posts	Re: Bobl Auction at 10:00 Are you selling bobls, buying bunds? I would disagree, on the margins... Think bobl auction should go well here. __________________ "Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness."

Jun 10, 2009, 4:51am	#3
traceyjc Senior Member Member Since Apr 2009 102 Posts	Re: Bobl Auction at 10:00 The flattener will be taken off at about 9.55, I agree that the auction will be good but I think the futures will have to recede a bit in the next few mins as I think the tail will be a bit larger than expected. I'm slightly onside in the spread at the mo US10yr later on too, maybe another opportunity if this doesnt go very well

Jun 10, 2009, 5:14am	#4
traceyjc Senior Member Member Since Apr 2009 102 Posts	Re: Bobl Auction at 10:00 bad auction, 1.4 bid:cover, 20% held back: did anyone happen to get the average yield? they didnt say it over the squawk

Jun 10, 2009, 5:37am	#5
Martinghoul Legendary Member Member Since Feb 2009 2,456 Posts	Re: Bobl Auction at 10:00 I don't know why you say it's a bad auction... I thought it went reasonably OK, as I see no tail and the bond is not coming off after the auction (auction cleared at 2.85%, I see it arnd 2.855% at the moment). __________________ "Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness."

Jun 10, 2009, 5:50am	#6
traceyjc Senior Member Member Since Apr 2009 102 Posts	Re: Bobl Auction at 10:00 Well I suppose it's not the worst but based on the B:C was below avg (last 10: 1.56, last 3: 1.7) and the retention was at the upper end at 20%. No tail is good I suppose but the price action probably discounted the auction in from last week; I've only been looking at bonds for the past 2 months though so i'm really not an expert. The 2/5 spread was pretty tasty as an overnight, any thoughts on steepner/flattener for the week?

Jun 10, 2009, 6:21am	#7
Martinghoul Legendary Member Member Since Feb 2009 2,456 Posts	Re: Bobl Auction at 10:00 Personally, I think last week's bear flattening was overdone, 'cause it was a very crowded trade. I am strongly in favor of us bull steepening back. I do have a bias and a position, though, so take with a pinch of salt. Have you joined the STIR chatroom, btw? __________________ "Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness."

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