Charmer Charts Bund, Bobl & Gilts technical anlaysis forecast

Bunds did trade higher reaching 129.87. We have eased slightly on the close, but still retain a position of strength. Now if we can break and hold back above 129.87 then we would be able to jump to 130.21/34. Buyers initially advised to cover here.

Look to re-instate above 130.34 as this back above the trend line and also the med term 38% fib level and as such fresh buyers would feel a little more confident in coming back in, looking then for quite a rally.

Now if we falter at 129.86/87 we are looking at 129.08 to 128.95 then targeted. Buyers are expected back at these lower levels.

Bobl had a narrow range, but the overall view remains unchanged. So we are still buying
dips unless we lose 119.70.

Schatz just couldn't hang onto gains and failed to make any headway on the topside. If then we lose 109.11 we should trade lower to the 109.07/05 support.

Buyers are expected in at these lower levels adding to 109.035. Again you should keep stops below 10902. A loss of 10902 sees further weakness down to 108.975 where we would be looking to go long once more.

109.11 holding sees another move to 109.18. If we can break this resistance look for 109.23. 120.26/28 is the key today. If we can climb above this resistance early in the session we can trade higher with 120.48/56 then the targeted area. You may find the market coming under a bit of pressure here...but we would still look for strength until the overbought scenario unwinds.

Failure to break the 120.12 resistance leaves us looking a little bit softer with 119.82/75 then targeted. If we fail to hold 119.70 then we are looking to come lower.

Gilts failed to break above 122.62 for the rally to commence and fell back to
122.07/03 support.
If we can hold on to this level today then buyers may at last see the recovery we have been looking for in the last day or two. We will need to see prices back above 22.55 initially to break the very recent downtrend. From here we can challenge 22.71 before 122.84/87 which could be tough to beat today. A break higher however, would then open the door to 123.12 for some profit taking.

Only a break below 121.90 would now ruin the plans for a recovery in this market. A
break lower should then target 121.71 before the 121.55/45 area as the next stop. Below here sees excellent support at 121.15/12 for a buying opportunity.

Today's Charmer Charts forecast for German Bund, Bobl Schatz and UK Gilts (Available at 7am).

Bund Dec Contract - Bunds exceeded our upward target of 131.59, trading to 131.67 before falling sharply lower. Now the close has been a bit disconcerting and we shall have to see if we can hold the 50% short term fib level of 130.58 coupled with support at 130.55. If we fail to maintain over here then we are looking at coming lower for 130.34/25, but this should be the base and we should be able to trade higher from these lows. We gave resistance located at 131.06. If we can claw our way back to here buyers would be looking to cover. They should then re-instate longs over 131.06 for 131.24 then 131.32/40.

German Bobl Dec Contract - Bobl has dipped back below trendline support on the close and also has made a double top formation on the 60min charts which leaves us looking slightly more weaker today with expected declines back to 120.45/42 initially.
If we fail to hold this support then we are looking at further weakness evident with
120.28/23 then looking likely. Buyers should come in here and try and defend the market
However they will not hold if we lose 120.20.
Now if after this lower close we hold up and try and break the 120.64 resistance we do have scope to trade higher with the highs of Friday looking to entice.

Schatz fulfilled our downside target of 10925 which we stated Friday. This is quite important to today's range as well. This level represents the 38% fib level and if we can hold this point we can trade higher from these lows.
Short term we are oversold and this should help support the market this session. So...as long as we hold 109.25 we are looking at trading higher once more. 10937 is going to prove to be a difficult area to break to would look to cover all longs to here and only re-instate further longs above 10939.
Now if we lose 10925 you will find sellers coming back into the market and we should be able to trade lower to 109.18/17. Sellers are advised to cover to here and buyers are expected unless we lose 10915.

10 Year GILTS Dec Contract - Gilts gave us the correction we expected with the break below 123.59/58 taking prices to 123.31 to provide the buying opportunity we hoped for as we bottomed at 123.26. So 123.31 will be pivotal this morning. Below here targets 124.04. If this level cannot find sufficient buyers today then we look to close the gap down to 122.65. This should be all we see on the downside for today so expect brave buyers to be out looking for bargains at this stage in the hope of a bottom here
today.
Above 123.31 gives hope for a recovery to 123.59. This could be a tough hurdle but if we make it higher then 123.82 should follow and perhaps 124.00.

Today's Charmer Charts.com forecast (available from 6am)

German Bund Dec Contract
Bunds opened higher and this set the tone for the rest of the session. Gains were posted to 131.88 and we have managed to close higher. Still overbought on the 60min and daily charts, and if we lose 131.76 on the open we should trade lower.
Support comes in at 131.40/32. Buyers may well come back into the market at these lower levels. They should only reverse longs if we break the base of the gap at 131.28. If we lose this support look for 131.06/02 then 130.92.
However if we can clear 131.92 buyers are expected once more as we should then se the market trade higher for 132.20 which is expected to hold this session.

German Bobl Dec Contract
Bobl captured within a narrow range yesterday and just could not break the 120.84 barrier.
We tried most of the session and failed. Now this sideways action may well have been
enough to give the market some oomph today to be able to bust this resistance.
However, if we fail to break the break above here take this as a sign of weakness and watch the market come lower. A loss of 120.67 would push us lower for 120.51/48. Here we should look for buyers to come back into the market. They will only turn tail if we lose 120.45. If lose we should find 120.35 then targeted.
Now if we can make a break above 120.84 buyers would be in a better position to trade
higher looking for 120.99 initially. Cover to here and re-instate longs over 121.02.

10 Year GILTS Dec Contract
Gilts topped out at 124.81, short of the 124.83/90 area in a quiet session which could keep the market under pressure today.
If we cannot hold above 124.40/37 then a dip below 124.20 should see 124.03. Below here we find support down to 123.86/82 today and so short covering advisable here as buyers may attempt longs. However stops will be needed below 123.76 as this will keep downside pressure for a test of Friday’s lows at 123.49 next.
Bulls will need to hold prices back above 124.40 for a chance of recovery today. This should lead to 124.60 initially and if we make it higher from here look for recent highs at 124.83/91 resistance. From here up to the 61.8% retracement level of 125.02 should be tough to beat today. However a break higher should then target 125.29 and perhaps 125.50 for a selling opportunity.

CharmerCharts.com daily forecasts:

German Bund Dec Contract - Bunds stayed within quite a narrow range yesterday as to be expected. So today we are looking at the market rallying a bit towards the 131.86/89 resistance early in the session.

If we cannot make a break above here we should look for the market to come lower back towards the 131.40 support. A loss through here would see the market coming lower with 131.24 to 131.02 then looking to entice. So if we trade higher and manage to break through 131.89 we would expect buyers to continue to drive this higher with 131.99/132.03 then the targeted area. Buyers will encounter sellers at these higher levels and we should then look to cover all longs. Buyers will only go back into the market if we manage to break the 132.03 resistance for 132.22.

German Bobl Dec Contract - Bobl held resistance at 121.09 and unless we break 121.12 we will trade lower this session. 120.72/70 looks set to entice early in the session. Sellers would be advised to cover to here. They are looking to re-sell if we can break through the 120.70 region. If we can achieve this we can trade lower to 120.64/60.

If buyers hold above 120.89 they can take this higher. If we can break the 121.09/12 barrier we can trade higher to 121.20/24 where we would once more look to cover. Buyers will re-instate longs if we can break 121.24 for 121.32/36.

10 Year GILTS Dec Contract - Gilts remain overbought so a correction may be on the cards for today.

Below 125.07/05 should see a test of 124.93/88 where we may see short covering and some buying interest. If the market fails here however look for 124.73/65 as the next target on the downside. Only below 124.57 see further losses to 124.43/36.

Above 125.38 gives us a target of 125.50/58 on the upside. This could be enough of a rally for today but if we were to break higher look for the roll over gap to be filled up to 125.86.

Today's reports attached.

Today's Charmer Charts Bund and Bobl attached.

Today's reports attached.

Gilts and Bobl report attached.