Day Trading & Forex Forum

bgold

Yesterday, I took a small short in May bellies (PB K4) upon breach of 106.10, filled at 106.05. While Bellies is still in uptrend, i took trade almost excl based on Elliott wave count (see chart) which should sees a retracement to ~101.20 or possibly 96 area.
I do see, however, some interesting indicator reversals, on daily chart.
Fe DaveT's synchronic MACD and Stochastics!

Short at 106.05 with stop at 109.40 target 96. Probably tighten tomorrows stop for a break-even trade.

Remembetr, Meats are treacherous and the locals have knives sharper than butchers taking out speculators stops!

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OM NAMAH SIVAYA!

Airthrey Capital

I'm long beer bellies.

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FetteredChinos

short Pork Scratchings as well Blair?

Bgold - nice analysis. Do you really use all those indicators, or do they just act as confirmation ? what if get conflicting ones??

or maybe they are just there to brighten your day?



FC

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Rognvald

Of course its a hippo - not a pork
Seriously bg - bg

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Rognvald

BBB

lol -

Nice post. Does look a bit weak to me too.

You're a brave guy trading bellies for sure!

bgold

FC, I do use these and more but I focus on:
1. trend unless Elliott wave count and Fibonacci measured reversal potential, confirmed by
2. a Jap Candle pattern, (ideally 3day reversal), confirmed by
3. at least 3 indicators, fe divergence of RSI

What if they conflict? That's the weakness of method, as judgement starts playing a role.

In case of bellies, I have had thusfar 2 stopped-out trades & promised myself never to touch Meats again (other than on plate) but can't resist. There are some nice seasonal trends in Meats and good spread trades worth researching.

However, as BBB says, one needs to to have some loose wires to trade Bellies based on TA.

Rest assured, I didn't risk the house on this trade. In fact from a seasonal perspective there may be a better opportunity to short Bellies by end April (see graph). For now I hope this trade will help cover my drinks bill at the next London Traders' meeting.

For inspiration:
http://www.cookitsimply.com/pork/pork-belly/
http://www.foodno1.com/efoodno1/menu...20000128b.html

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__________________
OM NAMAH SIVAYA!

BBB

What about trading the bellies as a spread? Lower your risk and increase your size - basing your trade on a longer term seasonal differential that occurs in meats. Try April-October. That way the crims wont be able to take your stops out - cos you wont have any!!! (hehehehe - you're so cunning BBB)

FetteredChinos

thank bgold..good to see you are using the indicators as confirmation and not trading off them alone.

respect where respect is due.. keep us updated on how u get on.

ever tempted to let the future run 'til expiry?? do you have a special warehouse for all this meat?... reminds me a bit of my patio.....

FC

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