S&P 500 - Inter Market Analysis

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Old Apr 2, 2017, 9:56pm   #16
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread Inter-market analysis arguments to support my bearish bias going into next week

Fundamentals = Trump trade failure as protectionism fears are reignited

Germany criticizes Trump orders on trade deficits, import duty evasion http://reut.rs/2nKHWx9 via @Reuters


VIX = holds double bottom hence reversal in S&P 500 expected

H&S formation in play on Russell 2000 as it registers a DOJI holds resistance = S&P 500 lower

FTSE 100 = H&S formation = S&P 500 lower
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Old Apr 2, 2017, 9:57pm   #17
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread S&P 500 breakdown
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Old Apr 2, 2017, 10:03pm   #18
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread Top 3 sectors in US equities = putting in a pivot top/reversal pattern ?

Esp financials with H&S formation brewing given Yellen not so hawkish after all = yields dropping = hurting bank profits

Tech and health care = top heavy

hence S&P 500 holding Daily chart @ Fib 61% = topping tail on friday
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Old Apr 2, 2017, 10:23pm   #19
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread i prefer to keep it simple and easily digestible for readers on this thread

I fear if it gets too complex people may switch off

Either way more than happy to divulge upon my analysis with greater detail when I can.

I trade based on an observation of 30-50 variables at one time across bonds, equities, FX and commodities. If I were to share each and every chart/analysis on every variables it would consume too much of my time

I am a trader first .....analyst/commentator afterwards.

I must dedicate more of my time towards observation/analysis/trading .

Good night to all
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 4:12pm   #20
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread
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S&P 500 registered a topping tail at Fib 61% resistance on Friday as the Nikkei sold off sharply overnight on negative comments from Trump regarding a trade review with each country.

"U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders on trade deficits and import duty evasion are a sign that Washington plans to move away from free trade and international agreements, German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries said on Saturday."

This is negative for global growth as it inevitably leads to a trade war, therefore expect further bearish price action in the weak ahead.

10 & 60 mins chart held key resistance at 2370. Watch out for test of support at 2358, 2335, 2325.



Game plan : I will look to initiate shorts and target support levels below, 2352 will be the first target.
Targets hit on shorts

Analysis worked like clockwork
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Thanks! The following members like this post: Atilla
Old Apr 3, 2017, 4:49pm   #21
 
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Targets hit on shorts

Analysis worked like clockwork

Good call. Good analysis too.

Would you be interested in joining our SPX 500 competition amongst bloggers here.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...17-prizes.html

Basically, it is a quarterly competition where we forecast (before US market opens on Monday) what the closing index will be at end of week on Friday.

It is a bit of fun between regular members & bloggers.


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Old Apr 3, 2017, 10:47pm   #22
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Good call. Good analysis too.

Would you be interested in joining our SPX 500 competition amongst bloggers here.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...17-prizes.html

Basically, it is a quarterly competition where we forecast (before US market opens on Monday) what the closing index will be at end of week on Friday.

It is a bit of fun between regular members & bloggers.


Thanks for the invite

I will certainly attempt to, but forecasting further than 24-48 hours is very hard based on inter-market analysis...the success/accuracy rate drops sharply the further out we go as its impossible to accurately forecast 20-40 variables to move in the intended direction.

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Old Apr 3, 2017, 11:29pm   #23
 
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Thanks for the invite

I will certainly attempt to, but forecasting further than 24-48 hours is very hard based on inter-market analysis...the success/accuracy rate drops sharply the further out we go as its impossible to accurately forecast 20-40 variables to move in the intended direction.


Yep for sure, it is difficult but it's more light hearted bit of competition. It does help sharpen ones approach.

I usually do homework over weekend on as you rightly suggest number of different markets and continents and look ahead to see what announcement and stats to be released.

Look forward to your participation next week onwards then
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Old Apr 3, 2017, 11:59pm   #24
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S&P 500: trading plan for Tues 4/03/2017

InterMarket-Analysis started this thread The daily candle put in a pivot low/bottoming tail at 2344 after terrorism concerns via St Petersburgh, Russia triggered a bout of risk aversion.

Daily chart has held Fib 75% resistance on concerns the trump trade has failed and is built on hot air given his health care bill failed to get enough votes.

Weaker economic data in the US + UK failed to support the bullish thesis from EU with stronger PMI and employment numbers.

A drop in US auto sales also hurt sentiment.

60 mins chart is in no mans land , asian markets will now dictate

Resistance seen at : 2370 , support seen at 2325 , 2340.

10 mins - support seen at 2350-2344.


game plan tomorrow: Long at support zones above provided fundamentals confirm, short at resistance zones above given bearish FA

happy to short at 2362-64 zone...targeting 2354-2344 .
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Old Apr 8, 2017, 11:30pm   #25
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S&P 500: Trading plan for Mon 10/04/2017

InterMarket-Analysis started this thread SO FAR
1. TAPER TALK VIA FOMC MINS
2.RATE HIKE TALK VIA FED
3. war - geo pol risk
4. weaker US jobs data

has failed to send equities lower ? What will ? BTFD


I had expected a flush on S&P 500 ....bear flag on daily on friday to 2320 region.
It made sense technically . 1. we held Fib 75% 2. we held diagonal trendline for lower high 3. lower low expected as bearish trend 4. bearish engulfing candle in control

Game plan for Monday is to maintain a short bias until we take out Fib 75% resistance . I will look for the VIX to break out north....
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Old Apr 8, 2017, 11:37pm   #26
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread Russell 2000 what do you see ?

1. H&S formation
2. bear flag

WHEN YOU GET A PATTERN LIKE THAT ,ITS A ONE WAY TRADE DOWN
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Old Apr 12, 2017, 11:57pm   #27
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread Istanbul Welcomes Bets of Mystery Trader Known as `The Dude' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wn-as-the-dude via @markets
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Old Apr 17, 2017, 5:46pm   #28
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread S&P 500 initially short squeezed higher led by stronger Chinese data and a failed nuclear test over the weekend in North Korea. We have thrust higher to test 2341 resistance but remain firmly in a bearish trend as USA/North Korea rhetoric increases and weaker US data continues to weigh.

Daily chart remains an inside bar , bears in control given GEO POL concerns remain.

60 mins - bearish channel resistance

10 mins - resistance at 2340

game plan: bias continues to remain bearish provided we hold 2341 , otherwise we test 2353 and 2357 gap fill.
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Old Apr 21, 2017, 2:01pm   #29
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S&P 500: Trading plan for 21/4/17

InterMarket-Analysis started this thread The combo of bullish comments via Trump and Mnuchin certainly triggered a short squeeze in US equities yesterday as Health care bill and tax reform were back in the spotlight. The question is does it have any substance or is it just all talk again ?

S&P 500 closed the gap above at 2358 and held diagonal trendline resistance at 2360 region. The uncertainty regarding the French election over the w/e will keep the index below 2360. We have an unfilled gap below at 2338 and 2328 so keep that in mind for the remainder of the day.
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Old Apr 22, 2017, 9:29pm   #30
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InterMarket-Analysis started this thread S&P 500 = bearish set up given Trump plays down healthcare bill + his so called tax plan details on wednesday has been talked down as hot air once again

TRUMP = JOKER out of Batman. He's become the boy who cried wolf , unlike the ignorant voters, equity markets no longer buying it.



If French vote = bearish then we sell off hard, down to 2330 gap fill.
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