The FTSE 2006

ukhero

Established member
Messages
712
Likes
12
The FTSE 2006.

Well, 2005 finished on a healthy high of 5618, a rise of 804pts or 16.7%. So where will 2006 end? What will drive it forward? Drag it down? These questions and a host of others will be debated and answered in this column throughout the coming year.

All are welcome to comment, or, if you chose, just observe. But in general you'll find that readers will pen their general thoughts in regards to the above two key questions, also, but not solely, commentary in regards to UK shares, general news, worldly happenings. In all, as long as its FTSE related, its welcome.

Here we go...

UK

P.S Last years thread is here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=16424
 
The FTSE Tuesday, 3rd January 2006

Last Friday's results:

Open: 5638.

Close: 5618, down 19pts.

Range: 5596 - 5640.

Last 5 trading days: up 31pts.

Last month finished up on 195pts or 3.6%. A touch overly strong for December and we may see a weak rise or a small decline in January.

Dow: 10,717, down 67pts.

Last 5 trading days: down 184pts.

On the month: down 89pts.

News items of note:

Sky news - 'Millions of households are being hit by gas and electricity price rises of as much as 14.5%, which take effect today. The energy watchdog says more increases are likely later in the year. Customers of Scottish and Southern Energy and npower will see their bills go up by 13.5% and 14.5% respectively. And, according to Energywatch, some energy companies are expected to announce further price hikes by the spring. SSE and npower were the last big energy suppliers to announce price increases in 2005. SSE's customers will see their gas bills rise by an average of 13.6% and electricity bills by up to 12%.

The average npower customer, meanwhile, faces paying 14.5% more for gas and 13.6% more for electricity. More than 11 million domestic customers across the two companies will be affected. Energywatch chief executive Allan Asher warned that further price hikes were on the cards for 2006.'

MOSCOW (AP) -- 'Russia's natural gas monopoly halted sales to Ukraine in a price dispute Sunday and began reducing pressure in transmission lines that also carry substantial supplies to western Europe. Ukraine's natural gas company Naftogaz acknowledged the reduction by Russia's Gazprom. "Gas is not flowing at all through some transit routes, which can lead to a fall in pressure in all the pipelines and limit the overall supply of gas to Ukraine and Europe," said Naftogaz spokesman Eduard Zaniuk.'

The News items above are not related. Even so, it wouldn't surprise me if stocks in UK related gas companies didn't rise in the coming week.

LONDON (Reuters) - 'Interest rates in the United States and the euro zone are set to rise twice during 2006, as the Fed brings its rate cycle to an end and the European Central Bank tightens cautiously for fear of choking the economy. A December 14-20 Reuters poll of 36 bond strategists also showed the Bank of Japan raising its key rate fractionally above current levels of virtually zero late next year, and forecast one rate cut in Britain by the end of June. Median forecasts showed U.S. interest rates peaking at 4.75 percent in the second quarter, after a steady tightening cycle which has so far added 325 basis points to the cost of borrowing from 1.00 percent in June 2004.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's stated a 55% chance of a rise. Tuesday's, no clear indication but favours a rise before a fall.

Companies reporting:

None

Economic Data:

None

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended on a moderate negative, but this won't be a factor to the FTSE's early morning movement; no economic or company results; no clear indication from charts; the market will be driven by company related news tomorrow.

Early gut feeling: I fancy a rise.

Will I bet? I'm up with the birds. There’s no rush, I'll wait until the FTSE shows which hat it will wear.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.



Yours


UK
 
Last edited:
If it follows EUROPE then UP, if it follows USA then DOWN! else Sideways.
Have I covered all the options.......it won't go Backwards that's for sure!
 
TOPIQ, true.

But if we lean on historical data for the first trading day of the year over the past twelve years, we have:

Up: 30%
Down: 50%
Evens: 20%

Add to this, analysts are predicting a small to moderate rise throughout the year for the FTSE, central Europe as moderate, and Asia / China / Japan as strong. Also, it's all about where inverters will throw their well earned money. In previous years, January has always been the telling month for the FTSE, as to where it will go for the rest of the year. So, the rest of this week, regardless of the DOW / Europe Indices, will be somewhat revealing.

UK
 
Anyone going Long this morning?

FTSE's doing well, up 50.

In fact all of the major Indices are looking good.

I've gone Long on the FTSE @ 5627, looking to exit.

UK
 
ukhero said:
Anyone going Long this morning?

FTSE's doing well, up 50.

In fact all of the major Indices are looking good.

I've gone Long on the FTSE @ 5627, looking to exit.

UK
What is your target exit point ?
 
kriesau said:
What is your target exit point ?

Kriesau,

Looked for 5660 and out at 5661, its now at 5667, even so, I'm Mr happy.

Yes it can go higher. The DOW's looking to open strong and other Indices are all headed North, but I'm at work today and I need to concentrate on other areas.

Good Luck all.

UK
 
The FTSE Wednesday, 4th January 2006

Tuesday's results:

Open: 5618.

Close: 5681, up a heavy 62pts.

Range: 5618 - 5682.

Last 5 trading days: up 84pts.

On the month: up 62pts.

Dow: 10,847, up a colossal 129pts. Much awaited and nice to see.

Last 5 trading days: up 36pts.

On the month: up 129pts.

News items of note:

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'The UK manufacturing sector grew slower than expected last month according to the latest Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/RBS (LSE: RBS.L - news) survey. The data showed export orders in December growing at their weakest pace in seven months, but overall orders growth continued to remain buoyant. Input prices came in at their highest in nine months due to rampant energy and materials costs, with the index reading of 61.9 up from 59.0 a month earlier.

The headline purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell short of the expected 51.2, edging up to 51.1 in December from 51.0 the month before. UK manufacturing output growth eased to 53.3 versus 53.8 in November. Experts were little moved by the report and reckon the outlook for UK interest rates remains unchanged, with 4.5% seen reasonable for now.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's had no clear indication but did favour a rise before a fall. Wednesday's dictate a moderate early rise followed by a dip.

Companies reporting:

Next [I have a gut feeling their results will be positive].

Economic Data:

None

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended on a much awaited rise which should effect the FTSE early morning; charts state a rise; the market will be driven by company related news.

Early gut feeling: a rise .

Will I bet? Already have prior to the market closing. Annoyingly I went Short @ 5686 [now at 5691] when I was expecting the market to dip the following day. I'm not overly sure now. Ar well. Looking to cancel it for a minor loss.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Morris,

I Spread Bet.

I'm up at 7am. The market opens at 8am and I'm looking to close the Short thereafter with a minor loss of 5-15pts, as I see the FTSE rising 15-25pts.

I could be wrong...

UK
 
No matter, just thought the use of the term 'cancel' rather than 'close' was odd.
 
pounds per point

Morning chaps...

Just wondering what size of bet per point most make ont he FTSE either CFD or spread betting? I know this could be a somewhat personal question so - if you imagine you had a theoretical £10,000 and were trading just the FTSE what sort of amount would you be betting per point?

As to the FTSE - closed my short on friday when it dipped back under 5600 for about break even and shorted (again) last night at 5719. Maybe I am fighting the trend here but even on a 5 year chart we look to be at the high point in the longer term up trend channel and a 200 point move over the last few days seems abit much without atleast some pullback.
 
Last edited:
Caught my eye....

"Merrill Lynch yesterday rejected the almost universally bullish view for Wall Street this year and predicted a 10% slide in American share prices, the first such fall since 2002, reports the Times. " Odd for Merrill (used to work for them) always over the top bullish...no UK view though. Hey ho.
 
downbytheriver,

assuming that the trading pot at risk is between 1% and 5%, depending on personalities and styles, and assuming a stop loss of 30 points, this gives us a range of £3 to £15 per point. Have I got my sums right?
 
Top