Day Trading & Forex Forum

Trader333

Glenn,

I know what you mean but I think osho67 was referring to a specific post on specific leading indicators and I remember what they didnt include. Anyway we should maybe let osho67 speak for himself.


Paul

Glenn

"I know what you mean but I think osho67 was referring to a specific post on specific leading indicators and I remember what they didnt include."
Yes I agree and understand. He was probably referring to a specific post and you remember what was not in it.
No problems with that.

I was just putting on my own two penneth on the subject of forward looking indicators, as did Madasafish.
Cheers
Glenn

Grey1

Guys,

MACD , MA ,..and most trend following indicators have NO predictive qualities and are solely designed to reduce noise..

Oscillators such as RSI . CCI, do have predictive qualities but you have to find the most optimised settings.. so your research for the next few years should be about what settings ..

madasafish

Sorry but mas and MACD do have predictive qualties .. when combined . with volume..

ersatz99

Hi Madasafish

Can't agree with you on MA and MACD etc.. they're all just statistical representations of the past. The crossing of MA's and swinging of MACD is caused by price action, not the other way round. Also they do not indicate strength of move. By the time you've allowed enough price movement to confirm the indicator, it's too late.

So why not just follow price/volume in the first place?

If you flip a coin 10 times and get all heads, what's the probability of getting a head on the eleventh flip? Same answer with prediciting price reaction when hitting s/r and trendlines n times: unpredicitable based on past performance.

Ers

madasafish

hmm ersatz: you have made a number of staements that are factually incorrect. i would agree if you are using a 5 minute chart and 20 period mas but use a 1 minute and 3-9 mas and macd and you can predict what will happen quite well.

But nothing beats support and resistance - particularly pivot points...

Grey1

madasfish,

Time frame does not make a bit of difference in predictive qualities of MACD or any kind of MA.. MA and its derivitive wont tell market where to go ,, IT IS THE MARKET WHICH DRAGS MOVING AVERAGES ALONG LIKE A CHILD...
TRADERS LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL DATA IN TRENDING MARKET AND NOTICE AS SOON AS THERE IS A CROSS OVER THERE IS START OF A TREND.. WHAT THEY DONOT REALISE IS THAT THE CROSS OVER IS " THE EFFECT " OF THE TREND AND NOT "THE CAUSE"..

However if you can make $$$ from them then use it..

ersatz99

Hi Madasafish

Don't want to argue about statistical probability with you.

Totally agree with you on s/r (with money management of course). This is my preferred method on 5/15 min chart.

Okay, so which instrument(s) are you using the above on, I'll watch it tomorrow. Believe me, if I could find a reliable predicitve indicator, I'd use it. However, 1 min charts are too volatile for my style.

If I've time I'll even record the actual number of successful entries your set up offers. I'm trying to clarify effectiveness, that's all.

you can pm me if you wanna

Cheers m8