Day Trading & Forex Forum

Moneycat

Based on seasonal studies available on my site, December Wheat might be a buy.

However, it is struggling against downtrending moving averages, and volume seems to have meaningfully diminished.

Any idea?

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Moneycat

nazzdack

On one hand, it looks bullish. On the other hand, it looks bearish................What do you do now?

Moneycat

It's fun you asked today: I just went short during the electronic session.

My take is that, disregarding seasonals, what we saw in the last month was just a retracement.

Also, I would say that we have a 123 top here.

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Moneycat

Moneycat

I closed my trade today, at 317 1/4. Made 9 cents profit.

Why did I close?

Basically I did not see any substantial move down in th epast days. Also, other grains seemed to be excessively oversold. Last, had a very favorable open and price action for the first 10 minutes or so...

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Moneycat

josbarr

U.S. wheat futures are called to open 3-5 cents per
bushel lower Thursday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a higher-
than-expected U.S. wheat crop estimate. This in turn raised first quarter U.S.
wheat stocks above general trade ideas.
The USDA projected the 2004 U.S. wheat crop at 2.164 billion bushels, up
from the August forecast of 2.123 billion. The jump in size contrasted with
the average analyst estimate that had projected a decline to 2.105 billion.
"The USDA found 41 million more bushels of wheat," said one CBOT trader.
The bulk of the increase stemmed from the spring wheat class. The USDA now
projects 2004 other spring wheat output at 574 million bushels, up from the
August estimate of 545 million. Most analysts surveyed had anticipated a
decrease.
The USDA pegged the 2004 average other spring wheat yield at 43.1 bushels,
up from 39.5 bushels last year and the largest on record.
Trade sources said that although the late season weather was unfavorable
for quality, the USDA showed that the quantity was still there.
The all-winter wheat crop was pegged at 1.499 billion bushels, up slightly
from the average trade guess of 1.493 billion and the previous USDA estimate
of 1.489 billion.
The USDA then projected first quarter U.S. wheat stocks at 1.942 billion
bushels, up from the average trade guess of 1.874 billion, but still down from
2.039 billion for the same quarter last year.

Moneycat

It seems that I closed my position a little too soon...

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Moneycat

bgold

Short Dec wheat (w Z5) @ 3480 initial stop at 3580 adjusted to B/E , target 3380

Wheat looks lower but seasonal forces tend to be positive (explains tightening stop to entry). Will the 3350 gap of 15 June be closed?

Will reverse to long price action allowing.

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OM NAMAH SIVAYA!