Time to buy the Euro?

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Short Euro has got to be the most consensual trade in the world right now. And rightly so up til now.

However the most important indicator, the P.U.B is signalling a buy. i.e, once the boys down the pub are all taking about something then its time to do the opposite.

I reckon were due a pop. To about the 1.27 level.

Thoughts?
 
Short Euro has got to be the most consensual trade in the world right now. And rightly so up til now.

However the most important indicator, the P.U.B is signalling a buy. i.e, once the boys down the pub are all taking about something then its time to do the opposite.

I reckon were due a pop. To about the 1.27 level.

Thoughts?
Like it - I think Goldmans Jim o'neil must have been in the same PUB - he is about the only analyst who is bullish.
Same analysis can be used for Gold - PUB research shows over optimism - should head lower in the short term.
 
Like it - I think Goldmans Jim o'neil must have been in the same PUB - he is about the only analyst who is bullish.
Same analysis can be used for Gold - PUB research shows over optimism - should head lower in the short term.


I didnt know Jim O'Neil was bullish but Ive got a lot of respect for him. Hes one of the few economists I actually enjoy listening to.
 
Short Euro has got to be the most consensual trade in the world right now. And rightly so up til now.

However the most important indicator, the P.U.B is signalling a buy. i.e, once the boys down the pub are all taking about something then its time to do the opposite.

I reckon were due a pop. To about the 1.27 level.

Thoughts?

A pop to the 1.25 level will do nicely for me....Im long from yesterday at 1.2330...which is the oct 2008 lows.

Nice Daily pin yesterday for the pin bar lovers.
 
I didnt know Jim O'Neil was bullish but Ive got a lot of respect for him. Hes one of the few economists I actually enjoy listening to.

I rather enjoyed his squealing when the world (and no doubt his GS shares/options) were going to hell in a hand cart...He appears to a be a lot humbler and in his views these days..perhaps as as consequence...
 
I rather enjoyed his squealing when the world (and no doubt his GS shares/options) were going to hell in a hand cart...He appears to a be a lot humbler and in his views these days..perhaps as as consequence...

I still dont find him that humble, but he calls it as he sees it which is what I like. No sitting on the fence.
 
Short Euro has got to be the most consensual trade in the world right now. And rightly so up til now.

However the most important indicator, the P.U.B is signalling a buy. i.e, once the boys down the pub are all taking about something then its time to do the opposite.

I reckon were due a pop. To about the 1.27 level.

Thoughts?

Not so sure...what agreement is this meeting to bring on? Agreement on more Q.E. more support....? I was close to shorting the EU at 12400 and obviously going long on US/CHF...didn't as my signals hadn't quite aligned... I did short cable and lost a few pips, now back below my stop :rolleyes:...tricky morning, interested to see what happens when the US session opens..
 
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/48bb26e2-61fb-11df-998c-00144feab49a.html


Euro pounded by intensifying debt concerns

By Dave Shellock

Published: May 17 2010 22:45 | Last updated: May 17 2010 22:45

The euro bore the brunt of persistent investor concerns about sovereign risk yesterday as it sank to its lowest level against the dollar for four years.

Uncertainty about the impact of a potential slowdown in eurozone growth also took a toll on many equity markets, although Wall Street staged a late rebound. Meanwhile, oil touched a three-month low and base metals staged a broad retreat.


The chief focus for investors remained the currency markets as the euro’s renewed slide highlighted growing concerns about the underlying problems facing the eurozone, given the uncertainty over the ability of peripheral members’ to cut their budget deficits.

“The euro is beginning to look like a sinking ship, with markets wondering whether some of the passengers may soon be tempted to jump off,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit.

“A break-up of the eurozone remains unlikely, but is no longer unthinkable. A number of investors have now to absorb a lot more information about what is going on in the euro area. This includes tail-end scenarios which just a few months ago would have seemed impossible.”

chart: Euro
The euro reached a four-year low against the dollar as concerns about the eurozone sovereign debt crisis intensified, heightening uncertainty about the region’s economic outlook
The single currency sank to a four-year low against the dollar of $1.2237 in early trading, although it subsequently managed to rally back above $1.23. Ashraf Laidi, chief strategist at CMC Markets, said the term “capitulation selling” was being used to refer to the latest bout of euro selling.

“While some definitions of ‘capitulation selling’ describe it as a point of ‘extreme selling’ – implying a possible buying opportunity – we are not suggesting the same,” Mr Laidi said. “In the euro’s case, ‘capitulation selling’ means that sentiment is not only unanimously negative, but is fixated on far lower targets from current levels.”
 
Dont get me wrong, the euro is still screwed, I just reckon its due a short term technical bounce as people start to take profits in a crowded trade.
 
Dont get me wrong, the euro is still screwed, I just reckon its due a short term technical bounce as people start to take profits in a crowded trade.

If you're swing and or position trading you have to constantly keep a weather eye on the fundas, but where you get the info. and moreover how you translate it, can often be as tricky as being hard core technical...

I swing trade, but I nip down to the seedier end of the scalping world, better than buying fookin scratchcards, or putting one on a nag (I never do either). I'm actually beginning to form the opinion that folks playing off short term TFs would be best scratching the UK open and waiting for the US open most days...I wonder if there's any stats to back that up?
 
Take up of the ECB tender was only $1bln versus market expectations of more like $20bln which indicates European banks are much less desperate for cash than people thouught. Should be positive for risk.
 
If you're swing and or position trading you have to constantly keep a weather eye on the fundas, but where you get the info. and moreover how you translate it, can often be as tricky as being hard core technical...

I swing trade, but I nip down to the seedier end of the scalping world, better than buying fookin scratchcards, or putting one on a nag (I never do either). I'm actually beginning to form the opinion that folks playing off short term TFs would be best scratching the UK open and waiting for the US open most days...I wonder if there's any stats to back that up?

I'v noticed that over the last couple of months, was a different story not too long ago...
 
Dont get me wrong, the euro is still screwed, I just reckon its due a short term technical bounce as people start to take profits in a crowded trade.

Could well be right as it is well oversold at the moment. That's not good enough for me to buy it though. I would need to see some technical divergences (MACDH or RSI) and they are not there at the moment.

I'm generally a trend trader though and the daily trend is firmly down. If we get a bounce to the MA I may like a short but not at these levels.

Then again I rarely trade forex ....
 
I'm actually beginning to form the opinion that folks playing off short term TFs would be best scratching the UK open and waiting for the US open most days...I wonder if there's any stats to back that up?

I would be surprised if you aren't right about that.
 
It may or may not be a bottom but sentiment is nowhere near bearish enough yet for me to fade.
 
"Sentiment is nowhere near bearish enough yet." nice description

in correlation with ES, EURUSD found a bottom at 12360
 
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