China v US of A, who'd win the trade war? My money is on the Chinese...

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The Chinese surely have the best weapon in the economic arsenal; dumping the dollar from a great height...?

In exchange for what ? If they do then they will find that trying to offload that may USD will cause a collapse that means the net worth of the exchange would also be worthless.

I wouldn't underestimate the US, they are very good at solving issues once they put their minds to it.


Paul
 
Would the Chinese really want to do that?

I've tried to play it out in my mind as a 'game of risk' type exercise and came to the conclusion, quelle surprise, that it was a zero sum game. However, China could (arguably) afford to be more isolationist, well certainly from the US, and possibly has the greatest currency ever to fully float/create a *Yuan* bourse? Dunno...what do you think, is this the US of A's real issue? Saddam was overthrown for 'taking on' the dollar and Iran now has countless missiles pointed at it for daring to do the same...


China launches yuan trade scheme

China has begun a trial scheme that allows trade with its neighbours to be settled with its own currency, the yuan, also known as the renminbi.

Six Shanghai companies have signed contracts with counterparts in Hong Kong and Indonesia to settle deals in the currency.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8136066.stm
 
Sorry guys, gotta go, but I recalled that our old friend Nouriel Roubini had some interesting thoughts on this problem a while back...

China's yuan 'set to usurp US dollar' as world's reserve currency

The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University's Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan's ascendance.

Known as "Dr Doom" for his negative stance, Prof Roubini argues that China is better placed than the US to provide a reserve currency for the 21st century because it has a large current account surplus, focused government and few of the economic worries the US faces.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...urp-US-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency.html
 
I'm no expert. I perhaps spend 6-10 weeks a year in the US but only 1 or 2 weeks in China.

I would say that it's more of a symbiotic relationship but with China being the weaker half. The US could concievably put a stop on their 'free market takes care of everything' approach and 'encourage' domestic companies to move back from China. The Japanese abused the WTO for long enough - why shouldn't the US have a go if need be ?

Of course, this is unlikely. China rules with an Iron Fist & the US doesn't right now. China maintains a low soft peg on the dollar which, for symbiotic reasons the US tolerates.

This Taiwan spat is nothing more than a reason to keep your eye on Boeing and Raytheon et al for a little pop up or down depending on which way you dress.
 
I'm no expert. I perhaps spend 6-10 weeks a year in the US but only 1 or 2 weeks in China.

I would say that it's more of a symbiotic relationship but with China being the weaker half. The US could concievably put a stop on their 'free market takes care of everything' approach and 'encourage' domestic companies to move back from China. The Japanese abused the WTO for long enough - why shouldn't the US have a go if need be ?

Of course, this is unlikely. China rules with an Iron Fist & the US doesn't right now. China maintains a low soft peg on the dollar which, for symbiotic reasons the US tolerates.

This Taiwan spat is nothing more than a reason to keep your eye on Boeing and Raytheon et al for a little pop up or down depending on which way you dress.
I would like to exert my intellectual property rights to the analogy of symbiosis between the US and China, you thieving pikey.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...d-considered-safe-investment.html#post1010570

It's the perfect trade, each has what the other wants. China has an endless supply of cheap shiny crap to keep the sheep happy, and the US has an endless supply of sheep willing to buy cheap shiny crap.
 
It's the perfect trade, each has what the other wants. China has an endless supply of cheap shiny crap to keep the sheep happy, and the US has an endless supply of sheep willing to buy cheap shiny crap.


It's perhaps what we used to call in the computer mainframe business a deadly embrace.
 
why on earth would they spank the USD? My advice-never bet against the mighty greenback. Here to stay.

have a look at this-it says heaps about China:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/opini...ith-you,-i'd-quite-like-a-fridge-20070512107/

Very amusing.

But don't believe anything you read on the Internet - the guy doesn't use Bamboo leaves, he uses the "Peking Times".

There is one glaring difference between the USA and China - the use of the M-O-U-T-H.

With the Chinese, you do not know from one day to the next what they think, plan, believe - and you certainly will never hear any of their private business.

With the Yanks - you know EXACTLY what is going on - who said what, when, where, why, what will happen next, when, why. Not only that, you get it all on TV, complete with political commentary.

When the Chinese move, it is always with stealth and surprise.

When the Yanks move, it is already yesterday's news.

So as far as brinkmanship goes, I will back the Chinese all day long. They will always have the upper hand, because that hand is held close to the chest. And the Yanks are telling their secrets to the world ... including the Chinese. They never retain leverage in negotiations - unless it is by threat of force.
 
Very amusing.

But don't believe anything you read on the Internet - the guy doesn't use Bamboo leaves, he uses the "Peking Times".

There is one glaring difference between the USA and China - the use of the M-O-U-T-H.

With the Chinese, you do not know from one day to the next what they think, plan, believe - and you certainly will never hear any of their private business.

With the Yanks - you know EXACTLY what is going on - who said what, when, where, why, what will happen next, when, why. Not only that, you get it all on TV, complete with political commentary.

When the Chinese move, it is always with stealth and surprise.

When the Yanks move, it is already yesterday's news.

So as far as brinkmanship goes, I will back the Chinese all day long. They will always have the upper hand, because that hand is held close to the chest. And the Yanks are telling their secrets to the world ... including the Chinese. They never retain leverage in negotiations - unless it is by threat of force.
I couldn't disagree more, both the US and Chinese economy are centrally planned and deeply manipulated. Both administrations are corrupt and self-interested, secretive, and undemocratic. They both manipulate and control the media and are quite willing to kill their own citizens for their ends. The differences between the US and China are so slim they aren't even worth mentioning.

If the Fed is ever audited (which it won't be) then much of the above would become apparent even to the most financially illiterate.
 
I couldn't disagree more, both the US and Chinese economy are centrally planned and deeply manipulated. Both administrations are corrupt and self-interested, secretive, and undemocratic. They both manipulate and control the media and are quite willing to kill their own citizens for their ends. The differences between the US and China are so slim they aren't even worth mentioning.

If the Fed is ever audited (which it won't be) then much of the above would become apparent even to the most financially illiterate.

I agree there are corrupt and undemocratic processes attached to both governments, but when was the last time you heard the Chinese blab on TV that "This is the first missile fired in Iraq, folks, and you saw it first here on NBC yada yada."

Unlikely - you are far more likely to hear that China has acted decisively to pre-empt a "situation" days after the event actually occurred, if ever.

I stand by my view, that the USA is all mouth when it comes to telling the world how good they are, and where they are going to attack next.

I never doubted for a minute that the Chinese commies and the USA "democracy" had many other qualities in common, not all of them virtuous. As for the USA being secretive - well that depends on how you define "secret".

Under the 30-year embargo on documents labelled "CLASSIFIED" we have rarely been treated to anything startling upon their release. ie H. Humphries, JFK etc.

Don't underestimate the USA - they have very deep pockets - China is a new kid on the block, and very much at the mercy of their customers. The Chinese "story" is built mainly on froth, but also on big bubbles, and you know what happens to bubbles. China is very vulnerable right now, and needs to maintain production at home, or the house of cards will collapse. Their economy is very immature, and they still have not built the degree of trust with their customer base that old world trading partners enjoy.

In fact - the opposite is the case - there is a deep mistrust of the Chinese business model, given their propensity for disregarding patents and copyright conventions.

Australia is a staunch ally of the USA, and if Uncle Sam said "STOP!" then you can be assured that China would find it difficult to get a single ship-load of coal out of an Aussie port.

Same goes for Aussie LPG gas, Iron Ore, Zinc, etc etc.

I wouldn't like to see that develop though - quite unnecessary and rather naive to be thinking this will get legs. Both sides have too much to lose, and zilch to gain.

Anyway - best of luck with the idea and the thread.
 
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