Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

This is a discussion on Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game. within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Mr. Charts I'm flattered Having read the thread link in your signature just before open, I can't ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Jan 25, 2010, 3:28pm   #183
 
montmorencyt2w's Avatar
Joined May 2008
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Charts View Post
I'm flattered
Having read the thread link in your signature just before open, I can't think why I was struggling to guess who you were.....it's blindingly obvious now I've read it !
Great photos you sent a couple of months back
Kind wishes,
Richard

I didn't think to look at his signature link before, and now that I have, I still don't know who he is, or once was, maybe because I am not a stock person. Pity, as it looks interesting, but for the time at least, I have chosen to specialise elsewhere.
__________________
Regards,
Mike
--
Still learning my trade.

Just because it worked, it doesn't mean that it works.
Trade what you see, but make sure that what you see means what you think it means.
montmorencyt2w is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2010, 4:01pm   #184
 
zupcon's Avatar
Joined Nov 2004
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
That would be my take on it too.
You dont need to use discression, pure TA is more than sufficient. That is simply a fact
zupcon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2010, 8:35pm   #185
Joined Nov 2001
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zupcon View Post
You dont need to use discression, pure TA is more than sufficient. That is simply a fact
I didn't use discretion this morning. Pure TA. Lost 30 points.
Splitlink is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2010, 9:30pm   #186
Joined Nov 2008
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Actually - I agree with people making 'lost' of money from TA. That's the problem..
Wont bother commenting on above......

Quote:
There are thousands of pieces of information that can be used to make a trading decision. I put them into 2 categories. Technical Analysis and 'Everything else'. The everthing else, I also call 'Fundamental Analysis'. .
Well your definition of Fundamental Analysis is not the accepted industry definition, and appears to be more related to news / company events.

Another more detailed definition of FA :

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ental_analysis


Quote:
A company coming to the end of it's lock-up period is part of fundamental analysis but has nothing to do with price-earnings, price-book, debt to equity etc. It is simply a moment in the life-cycle of the company where things change..
No its not part of Fundamental Analysis - its a news / company event.

Quote:
As far as tehnical analysis goes - there are 3 parameters that are generaly used and thousands of ways that these pieces of information are manipulated. Still - it's the same data.

- Volume
- Time
- Price

As far as 'everything else' is concerned we have
- market participant information
- scheduled announcement information
- insider activity information
- news
- company financial information
- company life-cycle information
- product release/approval/patent expiration
- industry information
- economic information (employment, inflation, interest rates, inventories, retail sales etc)
- index re-balancing

The list goes on & on (and to be honest, so do I).

Now - in a previous post,you stated that to use fundamentals you would have to effectively know everything about a company. This is very far from the truth. Depending on what you trade, you need to know different things...
Thats not what I said. In response to your saying that you should put yourself in the shoes of the people in a company making decisions & understand how their own self interests would sway things I said the following :

"How can you put yourself in the shoes of people making decisions in a company when you might have no clue about how that company operates or the industry etc...do you have to become an expert to fully understand the sector / company / industry ? "

[QUOTE] Your state I 'categorise' information incorrectly. I see that as a compliment. My argument is there is no need to categorise information as all information is pertinent to making a decision regardless of which camp it falls into.[QUOTE]

Nope ...not once did I say that you "categorise" information incorrectly - what I said was that you were confusing fundamental analysis with taking account of news / company events. Refer to definition in link above. When using TA you should take account of news / company events in any case.

Quote:
I would further add, that once you take a dogmatic approach and fit yourself into one of the camps and then defend it's pure use in denial of all other information, you have sealed your fate..

The point is that Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis are two diametrically opposed philosphies on how to approach the markets....Taking account of news and company events does not constitute Fundamental Analysis according to any generally accepted definition. I did say that I stayed out of market during news / company events so clearly I'm not suggesting "denying all other information"


Quote:
people do pure TA because it appears to offer a short cut. Then the short cut becomes a long route to nowhere.

No people "do pure TA " because its effective and makes money....you just seem to be in complete denial about this...by pure TA I mean without any aspect of accepted definition FA

I think its a dangerous route to combine a mixmash of pseudo-FA with TA, as it is only likely to over complicate things and lead to confusion....

The main point of the argument is that you appear to be in denial that people can make money using TA without FA ....even when there are posters on this thread confirming that that they do....apart from the various other well known posters on the site....
Prawnsandwich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2010, 9:48pm   #187
Joined Nov 2008
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w View Post
My specific use of it came from Gary Norden's book, already referred to, but it's one of those numbers you see from time to time, not quite as frequently as the number traders who lose. (Well, 90, 95, whatever....).
Seemed like a high number.......

Quote:
Im sure many are looking at fundamentals, eg earnings and many are probably not using any proper system apart from what they hear / see on Motley fool, yahoo finance CNBC etc...or are just gambling

Traders that use TA and are failing are not using it correctly..or or are not exercising money managment or probably just dont understand what it is...as as evident from this thread..

Yes, criticism of traders is something that Gary Nordern picks up on. People find TA doesn't work for them, but they are told that it does work, so obviously it's they who are at fault, or their psychology is all wrong - they need to be in "the zone"..
Surely its only common sense and fair to say that the hordes of newbies, as well as some experienced , who have 20 types of indicators on their charts....or who focus solely on oscillators with no attention to price...or who dont use money management / stops etc...are using TA incorrectly....?

Quote:
And which bit of TA is going to tell you it's about to reverse, and/or whether that reversal is a minor turnaround, or a major reverse? I know some tricks that are supposed to tell you, but how many times do they actually work out in practice?
That's the area that Gary Nordern talks about and he quotes the statistics for some of them.
I posted a link from Trader Mike earlier in the thread that predicted the liklihood of a top in the markets....

All of it - including double tops / support / resistance / volume / MACD / pin bars / trend lines / moving averages etc etc ....the more confluence the better ....its really not that complicated
Prawnsandwich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2010, 10:18pm   #188
Joined Nov 2008
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
I didn't use discretion this morning. Pure TA. Lost 30 points.

You must not have been using it correctly ...
Prawnsandwich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2010, 10:29pm   #189
Joined Nov 2008
Re: Wall Street = Casino. Minus Sum Game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by montmorencyt2w View Post
Tom has said on many occasions that there is a fair amount of discretion involved in his own trading. This is why a newbie cannot just take what he perceives to be Tom's style of trading and make it work the same. I have become convinced that Tom and people who like him appear to trade an essentially technical method are using far more than TA in their own trading, essentially by virtue of their long experience and their knowledge of how the markets work together. .
So your saying that in order to use TA effectively, it requires some work and experience ? And that a newbie who takes up any particular method might not be able to get it to work for him straight away ??


Quote:
With all due respect, you have ~50 posts and you haven't put a Bio in your profile, and I don't know your trading history.
Well look Ive no interest in making up stories ..what use would that be..all I can say is that TA works very well for me..I'm not the only one
Prawnsandwich is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Zero sum game ? tar General Trading Chat 22 Jul 9, 2009 2:45pm
Wall Street virtual stock trade game mellkolse General Trading Chat 0 Jul 1, 2009 6:02pm
forex zero sum game Christiaan General Trading Chat 18 May 27, 2009 4:45pm
Wall Street virtual stock trade game wallsctockbe General Trading Chat 6 May 21, 2009 9:52am
Wall Street virtual stock trade game wallsctockbe Stocks 0 May 20, 2009 5:32pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)