Thoughts for 2009

TomTom

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Its been 18 months since the start of this bear market. After all the events I believe 2009 will be even worse.
Billions of pounds have been reinbursed through pension and other endowment misselling.
2009 we shall see that hundreds of thousands have loans/mortages that are not valid due to how they were sold or incorrectly calculated.
Imagine the inpact on our institutions ?
The figures are set to dwarf even sub prime losses
With millions who have lost there jobs last year 2009 is going to be extreamly tough for business's.
Take our debt, mortage arrears together with 1000s of homes been reprosessed every month we are in for even more turbulant times tan 2008.
Yesterday I was shopping and saw quality shoues selling in the sale was £55 now £8 this was the norm across the range in this national blue chip store. (not Woolworths)
Its clear that some retailers may not survive 2009 as they are selling stock at a loss just to cover this years expenditure.
I see all index's remaining in a tight range similar to the past 3 months.
Important movements.
1,Monitor the behaviour of price during the first three days of 2009.
2,Look for a strong or week first week and for that trend to continue in to week 2.
3,As week one and two goes so dose January, any breakouts in january are usually retested in febuary before the trend continues.
4,Januarys trend is a good indicator of the years performance.

At the end of january we should have a diecent plan for how to trade the year. These are longer term plays to last one to three months untill end of April.

So as normal I have stuck my neck out and shared my views and part of my trading plan for the first part of 2009.

Its impossible to type every thing, however during 2009 I will be holding a meeting for members of Trade2win so members can see me and some of my asociates trade these markets and we will be open for any questions.

Let me conferm this will be a none profit avent so members will have a free day out. P.S. Not inclusive of expense's :D
 
A couple of things I have my eye on, in no particular order:

1) Whether the VIX will retreat back towards the 30's and possibly beyond

2) just how bad the Christmas retail figures are

3) If yields on UST's move away from their current levels.... many people are calling the bubble, but 0.75% on a 2yr note doesn't seem so stupid if inflation is at -1%...

4) Please, please, please can we see a bit more volume??

5) Baltic Dry index... if we see some recovery, it might be an indication that letters of credit are circulating again... of course, there needs to be somebody out there that wants to ship the stuff in the first place...
 
MrGecko, surely when the "bubble" of notes bursts this would be an indication of pending hyperinflation?
 
i belive oil and gold will go back up, gold should be trading over $1000 and oil should be at $80-$100 a barrel.

banks and finacial services will continue to get crushed, and i belive asian stocks mainly chiense stocks will start rising, a chiense or singapore index should be a good investment now.
 
suhaib, good post with some food for thought.
Should see a pull back monday then a continuation to the upside.
Surprised 9000 was breached friday , this hold us in god stead for more upside this month
 
My little predictions for 2009, just for fun:

the dow moves up to touch 200-day moving average/long-term downtrendline. Probably hit around 10500 by February (yes a break above 10K, although a false breakout) lots of false optimism generated, all the talking heads on CNBC saying "the bottom is here, etc, etc)....last chance to get out and still have the shirt on your back.

Look for the muni bond market to crack around mid-february, when several states, cities, counties, etc. start running out of money.

Food/energy shortages start surfacing around QTR 3-4 due to lack of supply. You might want to get a Sam's club membership and start stocking up.

Yen, Swiss Franc, Gold, Agriculture, and Short Stock ETF's will come out the winners in 2009.

Sorry to all you buy-side analysts, fund managers, and financial advisors....buying and holding stocks doesn't work in 2009 either. Maybe next year.
 
Does this mean you are all bears?!?! I'm gonna stick my neck out and say all world indicies are gonna rise this year! If I am right you'll all be wrong and I'll look really clever, if I'm wrong I'll just say I'm a newbie and it was a guess ;)

Sam.
 
index's will rise significantly this year, my plan is to be a buyer all the way and hold them.
First of all we must see the action through till the end of the first week before wholey comitting to this plan.
 
I also think we're going to see a substantial bear-market rally in the first half, which should be shorted when it runs out of steam. However, if the dollar was to tank it really wouldn't matter if Dow went to 12k, now would it. So, the x-factor is forex in my opinion.
 
Does this mean you are all bears?!?! I'm gonna stick my neck out and say all world indicies are gonna rise this year! If I am right you'll all be wrong and I'll look really clever, if I'm wrong I'll just say I'm a newbie and it was a guess ;)

Sam.

the thing with me is that I don't mind being wrong. I'm trend-oriented, so if they go up, i'll ride them up!!!

To be honest, I'm actually short yen right now, and positioned for a rising stock market, but I expect all these things to reverse soon. I'll ride it whichever way it goes, I don't care. But the opinions make it more interesting!


To me trading is like professional wrestling........ultimately all that matters is what happens in the ring, however, it's all the crap talking that makes it fun!!!


Good Luck!!
 
Yeah its good to hear everyones opinions. I read an article in Investors Chronicle about a month back saying how the equities markets are forward looking. Share prices took a tumble before any news of recession was heard, and since we've had all the news we've just been bouncing around the bottom (maybe). Its like what I hear a lot of you guys say, that everything you know is already priced into the share... So, we see all the news about recession, well maybe thats already priced in as well? Everyone is waiting for an economic recovery now and more often than not British shares have gone up between the start of the recession and the end of it. I also read in a book that (its not a very scientific point, but) by the time the tabloids get on to how much money people are making in bull markets, its time to start shorting! Well if you apply the reverse, when the tabloids are full of stories of recession/credit crunch then maybe its time to start going long! John F. Carter also says in his book how watching CNBC while trading is completely useless, because everything they report will already be priced in by people in the know, and well since news of recession, share prices haven't gone down much, they'd all gone down well before that. Anyway just a bit of a ramble there about how I formed my opinion that we might have reached some lows. Just an opinion though.

Sam.
 
As far as economic recovery is concerned, all I hear from the talking heads is that they're expecting it to happen in around the 2nd half of 2009 or so.

My question is: how do you have an economic recovery when there's no jobs? Millions and millions are losing their jobs at an unprecedented pace. When nobody's working, nobody's buying stuff....

If you think the layoffs have been bad so far, wait until these next two weeks. Most of the smaller employers out there are going to wait until the holidays are over to hand out pink slips. Also, look at all of the stores that are going to be closing (I heard somebody estimate over 72000 stores in the US alone) where are all these people going to go?

This isn't the type of recession that we've grown accustomed to over the last 20 years. The little cyclical downturns that we've seen, such as after the tech bubble popped in 2000, and during the Gulf War of 1990, we're very mild, and usually focused on just a couple of industries (i.e. tech, real estate). Sure some people would get laid off, and some businesses would close, but there were always other jobs and other companies. The Fed would cut interest rates, people would go back to work, and after 6 months or so the market would shoot up to new highs and everybody's happy once again.

This is the real deal, and though they may not use the "d" word just yet, 50 years from now, when they look back in time, they may very well be calling this the depression of the early 21'st century.

It is not inconceivable that things can get much, much worse, and that no, not all information has been "baked in to the cake" just yet.
 
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