NFPayroll

luckyd1976

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Any thoughts on today NFP???

How would you play it? (FX, Eminis, and or Equities)
 
-240k last, -320 to -340 seems the consensus forecast, ADP going with -250k (ADP an acronym for Another Dreadful Projection.) I always look on the news feeds leading up to see if they are wheeling anyone out in the immediate post-data release to give Tv/news channel interviews, because it is sometimes a good leading indicator to a bad number. That said, I'm guessing this Bush administration have probably stopped caring, lol.

I wonder though whether the admission that U.s has probably been in a recession for past year is warning of a bad #, or whether the Election hype and Bush/Paulson recent fiscal interventions impacted by way of a confidence bounce?

As for how to play it, conevtional wiisdom suggest

-150k and below buy $
-150 to -300k await a clear direction if seen
-300k+ sell $

but these are not conventional times and markets haven't been acting conventionally
We'll know sooon enough.

G/L
 
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Worst since 70's or what...

Wowza !

Not good !
 
NFP for ShortTerm FX traders, can be disasterous. So i would never recommend it.

I'm thinking of starting a NFP ETF strangle position though and Im going to start working out all the details here online.
 
Invariably Spam; but...

if you look at the Employment situation report in detail, somewhere in the household data is a breakdown of how many people are working from home / self employed / etc... can act as a leading indicator for an improving job market (followed by overtime, then temp workers, and then the headline figures).

You have to read in between the lines, of course, but table A-5 is where i think the info is...

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I tried to post this as a quick reply to a Spam post about working at home but it got deleted before I had the chance to post... figured here is the most appropriate place to stick it.
 
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