Pulling the trigger!

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Old Mar 31, 2008, 12:26pm   #1
Joined Jun 2007
Pulling the trigger!

Hi fellow traders,

For nearly a year I've been studying the markets diligently to grasp the essence of this art that we call trading. I've read countless books, studied the important threads I could find on most of the best trading websites around.

I've finally developed a method that is consistent with my personality. Most importantly, the method works. The core of my method is built upon P/V analysis meshed with MP, pivot points and the tape. My risk management and money management startegy is based upon the following principle: Maximise Size, Minimise Risk.

I get up in the morning before the 8am FTSE 100 kick off. My day finishes at 8.15pm when the U.S markets close. For the next two hours I study charts for the markets I track. Drawing trend lines, S/R levels, MP levels and calculating pivot points for the next day. I generate scenarios of what I will do when price reaches certain levels during the day. I visualise how price will have to behave in order for me to get in to a position. I visulaise what price must look like in order for me to get out of a position. I visulaise what will keep me out of the market when price reaches critical levels.
I do this everyday.

All this prep work is useless because I still haven't got over one thing. And that's pulling the trigger. I've found that I'm extremely risk averse and that all the probablities must be in my favour before I pull the trigger. To the point where Gordon Gekko is screaming in my head "Don't throw darts at a board kid, bet on sure things!". I'm treating my captial like the last thing I have on earth.

I've found that when the critical time comes to pulling the trigger I freeze and for that split second I find an excuse not to take the trade. This is not an arbitrary number but approx 80% of the time price goes on to make a chunk. With an average reward: risk of 3.4:1. The good news is that I always feel there will be other opportunities that will come my way.

I feel that if I can get over this part I'll be right as rain and can continue with my learning but with actual trades. This business is the toughest business I've ever encountered. But I love it!

Anyone have some good adivce for this beginner?

Cheers in advance

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Old Mar 31, 2008, 12:34pm   #2
 
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Joined Feb 2008
My advice is simple and effective:

Paper trade and get some real live forward testing, if you've done this already and still wont hit the button then you are still obviously nervous about and doubt your own tested system.

If you've tested something and it keeps giving positive results then why would you not back it the very next day or more to the point when you feel you have tested it to satifactory levels.

Keep testing and paper trade, when you are confident you will pull the trigger with ease.
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Old Mar 31, 2008, 12:40pm   #3
Joined Feb 2002
Start with minimum stakes: if your method holds you will only sustain small drawdowns. But the game does change when you put money in, so be prepared to adapt if real drawdowns re uncomfortably greater than paper. If there was no risk of loss in trading, there would be no possibility of an significant gain, so you have to accept periodic losing trades are a business overhead, not a calamity.

If you cannot sleep with even the tiniest loss, maybe this is the wrong game for you and you should keep the money in a savings account.
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Old Mar 31, 2008, 1:38pm   #4
 
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Joined Jan 2007
Your the pimp...be the pimp..

Quote:
Originally Posted by lote_tree View Post
I'm treating my captial like the last thing I have on earth.
No wonder then that you are reluctant to let go of it?

Minima risk=maxima execution=trading.

Result not important, trade important.

Even without a cent to your name you are still a valuable person. You know what society wants to say though to keep you shackled ?

fly, fly, fly.....


__________________


"You smell that? Do you smell that? Coin, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of Coin in the morning."~ Colonel Coin

Last edited by Crap Buddist; Mar 31, 2008 at 2:47pm. Reason: Edit due to pervious analogy being a bit rude/potentially offensive... yah meant no harm just my humor... cheers.
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Old Mar 31, 2008, 2:21pm   #5
 
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Joined Jan 2007
Yah, thinking on....... It can hold people back if they see the be all and end all of using a dollar yardstick to measure self worth, so that ties in with willingness to let go of money , its not the last thing on earth.

Now even when a trader see's this and gets a nice warm feeling for life , he then needs to reduce size, why ? Because he loves trading and wants to stay in the game to trade. Maximise size is ok providing you dont mind losing all the money? but it aint ok if you dont want to lose from participating in trading, that which you love.

Like an artist loves to paint, result not important, trade important. Its beautiful.

Foget money (outside of trading) forget yourself, remember trading.

Summary. Money means jack = life is priceless I am valuable, = I'm free to trade.

Trading means something,more than money I love it. = minimise risk so I can continually trade.And be.

Then you have arrived to chop wood carry water.
__________________


"You smell that? Do you smell that? Coin, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of Coin in the morning."~ Colonel Coin

Last edited by Crap Buddist; Mar 31, 2008 at 2:27pm.
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Old Mar 31, 2008, 4:27pm   #6
Joined Jan 2007
Smile Not ready yet imho........ DEMO & Execute

Quote:
Originally Posted by lote_tree View Post
Hi fellow traders,

For nearly a year I've been studying the markets diligently to grasp the essence of this art that we call trading. I've read countless books, studied the important threads I could find on most of the best trading websites around.

I've finally developed a method that is consistent with my personality. Most importantly, the method works. The core of my method is built upon P/V analysis meshed with MP, pivot points and the tape. My risk management and money management startegy is based upon the following principle: Maximise Size, Minimise Risk.

I get up in the morning before the 8am FTSE 100 kick off. My day finishes at 8.15pm when the U.S markets close. For the next two hours I study charts for the markets I track. Drawing trend lines, S/R levels, MP levels and calculating pivot points for the next day. I generate scenarios of what I will do when price reaches certain levels during the day. I visualise how price will have to behave in order for me to get in to a position. I visulaise what price must look like in order for me to get out of a position. I visulaise what will keep me out of the market when price reaches critical levels.
I do this everyday.

All this prep work is useless because I still haven't got over one thing. And that's pulling the trigger. I've found that I'm extremely risk averse and that all the probablities must be in my favour before I pull the trigger. To the point where Gordon Gekko is screaming in my head "Don't throw darts at a board kid, bet on sure things!". I'm treating my captial like the last thing I have on earth.

I've found that when the critical time comes to pulling the trigger I freeze and for that split second I find an excuse not to take the trade. This is not an arbitrary number but approx 80% of the time price goes on to make a chunk. With an average reward: risk of 3.4:1. The good news is that I always feel there will be other opportunities that will come my way.

I feel that if I can get over this part I'll be right as rain and can continue with my learning but with actual trades. This business is the toughest business I've ever encountered. But I love it!

Anyone have some good adivce for this beginner?

Cheers in advance

Hi lote_tree

Your not ready yet thats all, stop flapping and take a chill pill, all good things come to those that wait

Good advice above imho, I solved the same problem by re-demo trade for a month and took it very serious

= no work demo trade live no trade real ever again,

Sort of moved the pressure to something I just could not imagine not doing ever again, bit like Craps advice I made money less important and the doing very very important.

I just sat there scared to death of failing but no money at risk, I think that is in fact at the route of a lot of trading hang ups / blocks or whatever you want to call them.

FEAR of failure, your confronting something that you have worked very hard on, you no it works and you want to whip on and show everybody and yourself.

Demo trading it proper is moving forward and it will move you forward to.

Execute Execute Execute for a whole month then examine the results. Do it again if required.

When you trade the real market with your method you have to be right inside ~

Ready, follow the above advice and you will no I promise, you will get to the point you just have to no for real or no your still not ready.

Ready deep within to except anything any outcome and be prepared to lose the lot every last cent so make sure your whole bank at risk is outside those feelings.

The voice your hearing in your head is your instinct, get to no him well and listen to him, if you are at the stage I think your at he is just starting to tell you the truth, be on your guard and execute your plan to the letter and make notes of every trade and what that voice was telling you at the time. Do nothing about it just yet = thats a year or two away.

Sounds like you have put a lot of hard work in, do not F..ck up at this stage your nearly there

Nearly there = Your real go to see if your really good enough, thats all, not make a million in two weeks, though it would be nice :-)

Good Luck and all the best

Last edited by black bear; Mar 31, 2008 at 4:41pm. Reason: typo again :-) grammer
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Old Mar 31, 2008, 9:16pm   #7
Joined Jun 2007
lote_tree started this thread Hi guys

Thanks for your help. Really appreciate the input.

Quote:
I just sat there scared to death of failing but no money at risk, I think that is in fact at the route of a lot of trading hang ups / blocks or whatever you want to call them.
I've had the same experience. When I've paper traded even though it's obviously not real money, I have been scared to death! lol

There is nothing wrong with the method. It works and contiues to work everyday, the problem is me. I just don't know what's holding me back. It's true what they say, countless excutions on a paper trading account even if taken extremely seriously, is worlds apart from when you have to do it for real.

I'm not even under capitalised either. I'm not going to give exact figures but I'm serious enough about this to invest 6 figures into this business. And loosing it is not an option.

I was thinking of trying out a strategy that allows me to bring my stop to breakeven a.s.a.p. I don't care whether I get stopped out and miss a big move in my favour, I'd prefer to have 80% of my trades to be scratch trades and 19% winning trades.

Anybody have a strategy similar to this?

Btw, I follow the S&P 500 and the Goldman Sachs trader in the S&P pit was selling all morning. She wash short about 1500 big's and obviously got burned because of the late morning rally. I thought to myself, I'm so pathetic, I can't even pull the trigger for 1 contract yet!

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