Why you shouldn't demo trade

This is a discussion on Why you shouldn't demo trade within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd No, this is wrong (sorry bud). There is no system or edge or algo. If ...

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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:11pm   #25
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Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
No, this is wrong (sorry bud).

There is no system or edge or algo. If there was you would sell it to the highest bidder.

Back testing is also a total waste of time as we curve fit until we think it works then forward test it live but still is bollox - it's nothing but pure chance. Its about the money on the line and you as the trader.
Have to agree with Lee, the market aint rigid, its alive, it moves on other's decisions, for whatever the reason.

Take yesterday for example, a sell signal at the open (Dow) - cool, the bot sells the signal, BUT NQ once again holds up, meaning the Dow cant fall anymore at that point.

So the Bot losses or takes BE as price moves back up, but the trader (the edge) spots this and takes 75% of the possible trade range. There are far too many variables for anything robotic/numeric to have any real advantage over (just) random if traded in ALL market conditions.

If anyone does have such a weapon, you sell it for a few million (business), then trade on demo for the passion (as not to get bored). But it makes no sense to keep a bot if only making a few £$k per week, when the multiplied value if sold to a fund is in the millions. Well it dont to me anyway.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:22pm   #26
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There is no system, it doesn't exist.
I will give this to you in very simple terms.There is a system but most people don't know.

Take option formula , price is calculated based on historical data , if price is 100 ticks for open to close average , the option price will be 100 from the mid to the top or 100 from the mid to the bottom , that is 200 ticks volatility max , for max premium of of 100 .

In reality premium is 70 , which makes it 35 for up and 35 for down bet (put).If you buy the up bet for 35 , at the advantageous price , you will get 100 , a net profit of 65.

Add to that equation , the stocks are 75% of the time long biased , so buy the up bets called call options , and you have a profitable system.

When you have system , you expect to lose , something you are not mentally prepared for .When you put on the trade , you made analysis or emotional trades , if it fails it will insult your intelligence and self worth , something you are not mentally prepared for.It will also arouse the enemy within , as often said the many psychological demons within.

I suggest you do "daily mental preparations for losing " and prepare a mindset "ready to lose".You will be ready to behave properly , until the market does not dance to your thinking and beliefs.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:25pm   #27
 
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
I will give this to you in very simple terms.There is a system but most people don't know.
Yep, you are absolutely right and that's why the majority can't make money in the stock market...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:29pm   #28
 
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Originally Posted by wallstreetwarrior87 View Post
Have to agree with Lee, the market aint rigid, its alive, it moves on other's decisions, for whatever the reason.

Take yesterday for example, a sell signal at the open (Dow) - cool, the bot sells the signal, BUT NQ once again holds up, meaning the Dow cant fall anymore at that point.

So the Bot losses or takes BE as price moves back up, but the trader (the edge) spots this and takes 75% of the possible trade range. There are far too many variables for anything robotic/numeric to have any real advantage over (just) random if traded in ALL market conditions.

If anyone does have such a weapon, you sell it for a few million (business), then trade on demo for the passion (as not to get bored). But it makes no sense to keep a bot if only making a few £$k per week, when the multiplied value if sold to a fund is in the millions. Well it dont to me anyway.

Phew and f**k me. I have a friend. I knew it wouldn't be too long but thought it would have been quicker.

@ Wallstreetwarrior - You get my point. I knew most wouldn't and many still won't whether they wish to argue the point or not. They are only arguing with themselves and even once they realise that their system, algo or whatever fails,they'll blame something else but will never come out and admit it. They will simply suffer in silence as they lose more money and time. They will never admit that its them!!!

It will always be something or someone else's fault and is why when offered help for free on a trading site by a transparent and open trader, does not ask for the help offered.

@all others - You make a system or algo and the professional traders out there will be working hard all day to destroy it and destroy you in the process, however little money you make.

By the time you have figured out that something works (even by chance), the other traders will come along and break it for you like a naughty bully in the playground. How else will they make their money - it comes from you, plus a little to your broker.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:36pm   #29
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post

In reality premium is 70 , which makes it 35 for up and 35 for down bet (put).If you buy the up bet for 35 , at the advantageous price , you will get 100 , a net profit of 65.

Some of the points are valid, BUT as I have underlined, you are adding YOURSELF into the equation when you use the term "advantageous". What is advantageous? how do you know when it is etc??

Yes you have some rules/guidelines, but the interaction with yourself makes it alive.

Anyone with advanced coding skills - can you please show me how we code "advantageous" into a system.

That's the point thats being made ( I think lol). Your post is not far off the mark, and may very well be "workable" under historic price values, but volatility changes as does direction.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:37pm   #30
 
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
I will give this to you in very simple terms.There is a system but most people don't know.

Take option formula , price is calculated based on historical data , if price is 100 ticks for open to close average , the option price will be 100 from the mid to the top or 100 from the mid to the bottom , that is 200 ticks volatility max , for max premium of of 100 .

In reality premium is 70 , which makes it 35 for up and 35 for down bet (put).If you buy the up bet for 35 , at the advantageous price , you will get 100 , a net profit of 65.

Add to that equation , the stocks are 75% of the time long biased , so buy the up bets called call options , and you have a profitable system.

When you have system , you expect to lose , something you are not mentally prepared for .When you put on the trade , you made analysis or emotional trades , if it fails it will insult your intelligence and self worth , something you are not mentally prepared for.It will also arouse the enemy within , as often said the many psychological demons within.

I suggest you do "daily mental preparations for losing " and prepare a mindset "ready to lose".You will be ready to behave properly , until the market does not dance to your thinking and beliefs.
Again great post Foroom. Please don't see this is as an attack....it is not... just merely facts.

You yourself have been guilty of hiding losses. Nothing to be ashamed of mate, most do this. But why???? Who cares???? You have also not been open and transparent with your trades and have missing days..even still... for which I have not brought up of late.

Again, I need to reiterate this, this is not an attack:

However, you have presented which seems to be a good system, of course, on paper, it looks great. Why don't we all do this on Monday morning and everyone on T2W will be profitable. Then we can all meet up in our hundreds and swing our d1cks around. You know the answer to this one though. You haven't made it profitable. Now...Only you can refute this...and... the only way is to provide your P/L. I do it...its no big deal. Cards on the table.. not just talk.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:43pm   #31
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Originally Posted by wallstreetwarrior87 View Post
Some of the points are valid, BUT as I have underlined, you are adding YOURSELF into the equation when you use the term "advantageous". What is advantageous? how do you know when it is etc??

Yes you have some rules/guidelines, but the interaction with yourself makes it alive.

Anyone with advanced coding skills - can you please show me how we code "advantageous" into a system.

That's the point thats being made ( I think lol). Your post is not far off the mark, and may very well be "workable" under historic price values, but volatility changes as does direction.
Buy low , buy lower and buy most much much lower , wait patiently for between a day to 7 days , it works 70 % of the time.Markets respect supports over extended period of time.

I can see them on most charts and I trade them regularly .In theory stock market falls are short term and valuations are long term.
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Old Sep 2, 2017, 4:45pm   #32
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Phew and f**k me. I have a friend. I knew it wouldn't be too long but thought it would have been quicker.
Only came online about an hour or so, would have been in there quicker lol.

We can be like Woody and Buzz Lightyear - "you gotta friend in me"

Love debating threads - should be more of them. Off now to see if Hamilton gets pole, see ya
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