Lost BIG this week - come here to talk.

This is a discussion on Lost BIG this week - come here to talk. within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Hi All I (like others here) followed someone on T2W and then on twitter. I will not mention his name ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Nov 18, 2014, 9:04pm   #1
 
nitrader's Avatar
Joined Nov 2013
Lost BIG this week - come here to talk.

Hi All

I (like others here) followed someone on T2W and then on twitter.

I will not mention his name as he does not deserve any further thought or consideration.

I have received great help and support from the honest members of this site and want to thank them all, but don't want to take up their scalping thread anymore.

If you want to get your anger or feelings out then please post here and let it all out!

BUT - I want us all to have grown from this experience and NOT allow this "person" to drag us down.

If you like also please post your thoughts and how you intend to recover from this episode and to become a better trader/person in the future.

If you think this is all a bit touchy feely physco babble the please feel free to simple post.

Xxxx you are a F@cking C@@t and I hate you!

If that Twitter **** does want to post here and gloat then please just Feck Off back to the hole you crawled out of you insignificant excuse for a man.
nitrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 9:37pm   #2
Joined Sep 2014
1st----Why would anybody follow someone else's trades? O
2nd----Once you place the trade you own it. It doesn't matter what brought you to that decision....at some point it becomes your responsibility.
3rd----When I first started lurking forums I would find someone that made a lot of directional recommendations. Then I would go back through their posts and track the success and failure of previous recommendations ignoring obvious scalp type or daytrades. (simply because I don't scalp at this point). What I found was that whether you looked at 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months they would be right about 50% of the time. Meaning that at some point they might eventually be right. I did notice that those who tended to go long on positions that were correlated to the S&P they had a higher tendency to be right (since the market has been on a tear throughout that time) but still managed to under perform the actual S&P when averaged together.

My conclusion...nobody knows nothin'. Even Cramer has below a 50% for his show picks. I would expect that the total success or failure of trade suggestions or strategies would fall right into a standard bell curve distribution. I get more bang for the buck fading people that act like they have an edge.
__________________
Net/Net more money is probably made from selling trading ideas than the trades themselves make.

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Lao Tzu
ACstudio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 9:48pm   #3
 
nitrader's Avatar
Joined Nov 2013
nitrader started this thread 1st----Why would anybody follow someone else's trades? O


I guess because I thought that since they were having success that I may learn something from following their logic.

I don't really think that is a bad reason but I do 100% agree that not taking responsibility for the trade after entered is a bad error,
but not a bad as not placing a stop.

do you have much success fading other peoples direction?
nitrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 10:00pm   #4
Joined Sep 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by n******* View Post
do you have much success fading other peoples direction?
I do just fine whether I'm fading/following/flipping a coin or reading the entrails of my enemies. The results are about the same. For me it comes down to strategy management.

If you tell me the pick they made and an idea of an expected return on capital I would tell you the strategy I would have used for the same directional assumption.
__________________
Net/Net more money is probably made from selling trading ideas than the trades themselves make.

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Lao Tzu
ACstudio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 10:14pm   #5
Joined Jul 2008
Oh man I know how that feel but not from following others signals, rather my own doing. When I started trading I had a few weeks of buildup success underpinned by an easy trend.At the very end I had made about 40k leveraged up to my ears on 150 a point. It all ended over the course of 4 days where the previous winnings all diminished into a margin call leaving me with practically an empty account.

I did it again about 6 months later in truly astonishing style on oil where I lost 8k in less than 10 seconds on some news announcement. I know your pain but you just have to pick yourself up, stop throwing money at this and start learning how to do it yourself. You might never make it and to be honest even having the determination to keep you at it is not guaranteed to be enough. I don't want to put salt on an open wound but this the reality you face. If you keep yourself open to ideas and sufficiently research in line with the way you want to trade you will be on the right road. If I can suggest anything else it would be to accelerate your trading through a good simulator that allows you to replay and pause historical data. This would enable you to gain experience fast and allow you to test your ideas rapidly.

Take a week or 2 off to clear your head and give you a fresh start
forker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 11:02pm   #6
 
ABTrading's Avatar
Joined Nov 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by n******* View Post
Hi All

I (like others here) followed someone on T2W and then on twitter.

I will not mention his name as he does not deserve any further thought or consideration.

I have received great help and support from the honest members of this site and want to thank them all, but don't want to take up their scalping thread anymore.

If you want to get your anger or feelings out then please post here and let it all out!

BUT - I want us all to have grown from this experience and NOT allow this "person" to drag us down.

If you like also please post your thoughts and how you intend to recover from this episode and to become a better trader/person in the future.

If you think this is all a bit touchy feely physco babble the please feel free to simple post.

Xxxx you are a F@cking C@@t and I hate you!

If that Twitter **** does want to post here and gloat then please just Feck Off back to the hole you crawled out of you insignificant excuse for a man.
You just learned a great lesson in trading, the tuition at the University of Wall Street is often high but the lessons learned there can not be learned anywhere else.

One of the first things you'll have to learn in trading is that you alone are responsible, you made the decision to follow someone else, he did not force you. I'm sorry for your losses but it is indeed a good lesson that must be learned early, if you don't accept that up front then you better look for another way to make money.

Also, unless someone is calling their trades before they are taken and you can follow the trade closely then take it with a grain of salt. Learn to make your own decisions in the market, if you don't know how to design your own trading system, then learn, and don't trade until you understand everything about your system, your edge, when it works, when it doesn't and what to expect.

So now that you know other people aren't going to lead you to riches, educate yourself and follow your own path to becoming a profitable trader.

Good Luck!
ABTrading is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 11:39pm   #7
 
itspossible's Avatar
Joined Sep 2014
https://twitter.com/KVolatility/stat...88411677503488
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
i'm lying for the attention
Quote:
Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
reloading another "K" next week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
you don't really have an orange juice position do you?
itspossible is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: Sonicscooter
Old Nov 18, 2014, 11:42pm   #8
 
nitrader's Avatar
Joined Nov 2013
nitrader started this thread Hi Forker

Many thanks for posting your story - wow you won and lost in BIG style!

I did not know about simulators so thanks!
also when my DAX trade is over I agree a break is in order!

Cheers
nitrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 18, 2014, 11:45pm   #9
 
nitrader's Avatar
Joined Nov 2013
nitrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by ABTrading View Post
You just learned a great lesson in trading, the tuition at the University of Wall Street is often high but the lessons learned there can not be learned anywhere else.

One of the first things you'll have to learn in trading is that you alone are responsible, you made the decision to follow someone else, he did not force you. I'm sorry for your losses but it is indeed a good lesson that must be learned early, if you don't accept that up front then you better look for another way to make money.

Also, unless someone is calling their trades before they are taken and you can follow the trade closely then take it with a grain of salt. Learn to make your own decisions in the market, if you don't know how to design your own trading system, then learn, and don't trade until you understand everything about your system, your edge, when it works, when it doesn't and what to expect.

So now that you know other people aren't going to lead you to riches, educate yourself and follow your own path to becoming a profitable trader.

Good Luck!
Thanks for your post.

Can't disagree with anything you have said - I need my own trading system and money management - I guess I hoped I would learn it as I went along

LESSON LEARNED - and it cost less than a Uni education these days!
nitrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: montmorencyt2w
Old Nov 18, 2014, 11:48pm   #10
 
nitrader's Avatar
Joined Nov 2013
nitrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACstudio View Post
I do just fine whether I'm fading/following/flipping a coin or reading the entrails of my enemies. The results are about the same. For me it comes down to strategy management.

If you tell me the pick they made and an idea of an expected return on capital I would tell you the strategy I would have used for the same directional assumption.
Hi AC

You made a great point that I forgot.

I actually did a coin flip test just the week before to teach my 8 year old about probability but also to remind myself how many loses you can get in a row before you get a winner and how you have to control loss levels. I should have got my 8 year to trade for me!
nitrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Nov 19, 2014, 4:27pm   #11
 
montmorencyt2w's Avatar
Joined May 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by forker View Post
Oh man I know how that feel but not from following others signals, rather my own doing. When I started trading I had a few weeks of buildup success underpinned by an easy trend.At the very end I had made about 40k leveraged up to my ears on 150 a point. It all ended over the course of 4 days where the previous winnings all diminished into a margin call leaving me with practically an empty account.

I did it again about 6 months later in truly astonishing style on oil where I lost 8k in less than 10 seconds on some news announcement. I know your pain but you just have to pick yourself up, stop throwing money at this and start learning how to do it yourself. You might never make it and to be honest even having the determination to keep you at it is not guaranteed to be enough. I don't want to put salt on an open wound but this the reality you face. If you keep yourself open to ideas and sufficiently research in line with the way you want to trade you will be on the right road. If I can suggest anything else it would be to accelerate your trading through a good simulator that allows you to replay and pause historical data. This would enable you to gain experience fast and allow you to test your ideas rapidly.

Take a week or 2 off to clear your head and give you a fresh start
I've done something similar to you in the past (and more than once), but I must admit that 150 a point is truly heroic!

Agree with your advice to the OP (except I'd say a month or two, or in my case, year or two), and might add that perhaps we all need a large notice above our trading desk which reads "The only person responsible for your current predicament is YOU".

EDIT: A reason that "coin toss trading" can "work", is of course, that it takes the emotion out of the decision. Any system, even a bad one, can also do this if followed consistently, but of course, you still have to do the risk & money management properly.
montmorencyt2w is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 11, 2014, 11:56pm   #12
 
Wicked_Daddy's Avatar
Joined Sep 2014
Years ago I made a game with a friend of making all trade decisions on a coin toss. We used a demo account for safety but wanted to prove a point about MM and psychology. We traded the same stock but made our entries and exits on the toss of the coin. Of course, some exits were automatic if stops were hit, as we allowed ourselves the use of stops but not as trailing - only protective. The results were actually pretty interesting. We both exited after 1 week with a profit and we both enforced the value of MM and the psychology of approaching the market with a very mechanical mindset.

I've been tempted to do this again - I've made a few bad decisions recently that have dented my confidence. Five losers in a row that immediately reversed and rocketed almost the moment I exited the trade. Still can't wrap my head around what the hell went on with those trades... I need to get my head back into a mechanical, non-emotional mindset.

It's times like that I have to remind myself that trading beats the BS of corporate politics, A-hole bosses, employee issues, traffic and etc - even on my worst day.
Wicked_Daddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 12, 2014, 12:27am   #13
 
nitrader's Avatar
Joined Nov 2013
nitrader started this thread Hi Wicked_Daddy

The more I spend on looking at methods and looking at what went wrong / right with my trades I come back to the fact that the trading is limited by the mind and not the method.

I also did a coin toss, but with a dice - weighted in my favour - but it could still give losing runs of 5 in a row, even when the odds were 3:2 to me.
nitrader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 12, 2014, 6:27pm   #14
Joined Feb 2002
n******* - I admire your enthusiasm and determination to stick at this game.

There are good points already on this thread, many pointing to the fact that entries are secondary importance to exits, and trade management is how you get to the best exit.

Its good practice to have 2 exits in sight before you enter - a stop in case the trade goes against you (which a percentage inevitably do) plus your profit target. Both should be supported by TA, not £ loss you can live with or £ profit you would like.
tomorton is online now   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 12, 2014, 6:38pm   #15
 
Wicked_Daddy's Avatar
Joined Sep 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by n******* View Post
Hi Wicked_Daddy

The more I spend on looking at methods and looking at what went wrong / right with my trades I come back to the fact that the trading is limited by the mind and not the method.

I also did a coin toss, but with a dice - weighted in my favour - but it could still give losing runs of 5 in a row, even when the odds were 3:2 to me.
True that. Every losing trade I have ever made was clearly my fault after a thorough analysis. Losing money pisses me off but beating myself due to stupid mistakes is the worst punishment of all.
Wicked_Daddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Big Week For the Markets traderchild Stocks 0 Jul 9, 2013 3:25pm
Big Earnings Movers for Week 2/13/2012 TwosComplement General Trading Chat 0 Feb 11, 2012 7:14pm
Big Earnings Movers for Week 2/6/2012 TwosComplement General Trading Chat 0 Feb 4, 2012 6:40pm
Anybody know what MB Trading's big announcement might be next week? Frogz Forex Brokers 2 Feb 18, 2011 5:06am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)