How to do analysis

N Rothschild

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Im bored so going to give a few tid bits now and again on how to do some proper analysis..and i dont mean TA guff.

Im bullish the SP atm (ofcourse sayings this outloud will prove me wrong)

There is about 30 reasons i am bullish as apposed to bearish..im not gona tell you most of them! but i will say one or two which will help the newbs out there think outside the box a little bit.

Markets open on tuesday.. 4 out of the last 5 years the first trading day of the year has been up. in general..first days of the week/month/quater is when funds do alot of their buying.."mutual fund monday". so on tuesday its the first day of the first month of the first quater. simples.

big bit of news on tuesday, the ism number! as much as the perma bears dislike it..there has been not bad data coming out of the us.

jobless claims hit a 3 year low in december before spiking up a little bit.

how does jobless claims compare to ism? well when claims drop, ism rises. as you can see in the chart. there is no point randomly guesing what kind of data is going to come out and guessing where the market will go..you need to look for actual relationships which can give an indication of whats going to happen.

so if we are to go up on monday i expect it to be driven by a good ism number.

maybe post some more later...

(orange jobless claims green ism)
 

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So how long do you expect the results of the number to dictate buying power? You don't like to day trade do you so I'm assuming you're going to hold this position, yes?

As for the fund buying thing, how do you know that they'll be buying rather than selling? SP's up almost 17% in the last quarter but failed to make new highs (from oct) on each of the rallies. Are you expecting a push to new highs and if so, why?

Not saying I disagree with you as I'd be long SP myself (see VIX) but it would be interesting to hear your rationale.
 
well..the dax is up 2.5% this monday. if it stays like that i would hazard a guess the sp will be gapping north big time..

im expecting a push to new highs for the reason i posted lol..and a few others

i expecting buying off ism and nfp up into the 1330 level
 
i wuldnt pay to much attention to asset correlations like that. they always break and can take for ever to converge etc..remember market can stay irrational for a long time..and it has to be rational for correlations to apply.

also there is more euro shorts right now than anytime in history...squeeeeeeze anyone?
 
it's not a correlation it's the dollar/euro premium. I just wonder whether a bounce in euro will bring down the SP or push up the dax.
 
a highly doubt a bounce in the euro would put pressure on the sp...dollar weakness is THE biggest driver in the sp.

the fact the sp has held up so well in the face of a good little dollar rally is impressive..and bullish to me.
 
scose i think you have mis understood that chart...if you believe a euro rally could cause the sp to fall and dax to rise you are some what mistaken..imo :)
 
Npv as always. Could also be institutional mandates too. Whenever the reasons for the moves out of Europe into us reverse, stands to reason the money will flow back.
 
so the money is now flowing from us reserve? (what ever you think that is)..a second ago you said it would flow from us equity.. and before that you called it the dollar euro premium...

good to see you havnt got any smarter in the last year and still spout the same old ****..
 
hahaha. I'm spouting ****?

What US reserve? You just don;t have a clue what I'm talking about is all mate. I'll leave you to your insults if you can't have a civilised discussion. Especially if you're going to base your insults on your own apparent dyslexia.

I wanted to talk about trading not have a flame war so I'm out for now.


a second ago you said it would flow from us equity.. and before that you called it the dollar euro premium

btw that's the same thing, mate.
 
its hard to know what your talking about when each post's content has no relevance to the previous one.

im not sure you know what your talking about either..you just wana sound good..
 
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