**Re: Another probability question**
If I’m honest, after setting up the smelter and the die casting tools and getting the damned thing weighted at precisely 60% heads and 40% tails (couple of hundred prototypes), I was knackered. So I just guessed at the result. I imagine it was the degree of precision that gave it away really.
It may not be totally accurate at 4.507575552, but you have to admit it looks a lot more precise than 41.
On a serious note, and I don’t dispute the beauty, complexity and deeply rigorous nature of the mathematical formula involved, I can’t help feeling that even with a fairly weighted coin, you’d have a 90% probability of getting more heads than tails a lot sooner than 41. Perhaps my grasp of probability is so far out of whack with reality (wouldn’t be the only thing that is) that I am pleasantly surprised by such things, or, it could be, reality doesn’t conform to the statistical straightjacket within which we pretend to place it to so easily convince ourselves our models adequately mirror reality.
Something to test out with a real coin while waiting for the plane that never takes off to take off.
Anyone want some dodgy coins..... |