51%

This is a discussion on 51% within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by new_trader When you say "the" strategy, is this your strategy? So, do I understand this correctly, you ...

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Old Mar 31, 2011, 11:05am   #61
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
When you say "the" strategy, is this your strategy? So, do I understand this correctly, you are now going for a high win rate, small profit strategy? Isn't this a 180º flip from what you used to advocate? Perhaps I should follow you on twitter so I can keep up with your weekly strategy recommendations
lol new_trader. Part of being a good trader is adapting to market conditions. This doesn't mean one minute you are using bollinger bands and the next you are using stochastics. It simply means that you have to do what is neccessary to stay alive and continue to grow.

For example, let's assume you have an excellent strategy whereby you enter trades and use a trailing stop loss which for a certain trending period means you make consistent growth. Then, through diligent examination of your records you note that your returns diminish and it's a direct result of the fact that the market has entered a more choppy phase, you adapt: maybe you lose the trailing stop or you start scaling out etc.

Can I also add that this is not some new strategy. I've always traded much the same way. However, there is an excellent opportunity most weeks. I started off trading it discretionary and through live trading it, I found it was better off systematised. This "strategy" is just a tool in my arsenal and makes up a small percentage of my trading.
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Last edited by trader_dante; Mar 31, 2011 at 11:27am.
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 11:13am   #62
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by Triggerfish View Post
Go and play some poker and try to understand that there is a very fine line between gamble and skill. That line is never still, always moving in a constant change due to every hand being played.
If you gamble ie. all in, over the long term, you will not survive; if you use your skill, you will last longer because you will know when to fold and when to attack. it is a probability game.

In trading, it is the same!
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 11:16am   #63
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by bbmac View Post
c. Expectancy is key, ie over any sample of trades beit a week, month, year or a specified representative numver, do you have a positicve expectancy to your trading edge/your execution of it.G/L
This is the central tennet for me. I have understood this from a mathematical PoV for a long time but it's only been in the last few months that I have got to understand my own trading method wrt to how the expectancy is created.

Having had the fortune to spend 4 hrs with you earlier in the year, I can see that your system is loaded with emphasis on the entry rather than the exit. Conversely I can see in my system that the +ve expectancy is created because of the exits with entry being a less important facet of the system.

I also sense that there is a sliding scale of +ve expectancy systems out there that go from high-strike/low r:r to low-strike/high r:r.

Achieving high-strike/high r:r from a purely systemic PoV (rather than discretionary) seems to not be possible from a mathematical/market behaviour PoV. This is just a hunch and is no way supported by anything empirical.
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 11:24am   #64
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
I do my best to win every trade I enter. Possible or not is irrelevant.
The key point is that I have no control at all over what happens once I'm in a trade, so trying to win is a bit pointless really, its all just probabilities.

I couldnt care less about how many I win, only about how much I make, and the severity of drawdowns (which appreciate noone else has becuase they have a 100% strike rate)
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 11:25am   #65
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by robster970 View Post
This is the central tennet for me. I have understood this from a mathematical PoV for a long time but it's only been in the last few months that I have got to understand my own trading method wrt to how the expectancy is created.

Having had the fortune to spend 4 hrs with you earlier in the year, I can see that your system is loaded with emphasis on the entry rather than the exit. Conversely I can see in my system that the +ve expectancy is created because of the exits with entry being a less important facet of the system.

I also sense that there is a sliding scale of +ve expectancy systems out there that go from high-strike/low r:r to low-strike/high r:r.

Achieving high-strike/high r:r from a purely systemic PoV (rather than discretionary) seems to not be possible from a mathematical/market behaviour PoV. This is just a hunch and is no way supported by anything empirical.
Robster, I have to say when I met you, you didn't look like a nerd ;-)
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 11:36am   #66
 
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Re: 51%

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Robster, I have to say when I met you, you didn't look like a nerd ;-)
Don't be fooled by the beer and Jagerbombs.

I was a research physicist by trade. Materials, quantum stuff. Messing with 'frickin lasers'. Pays badly and academia is dull. Got out, had a life. Always a geek though.
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Last edited by robster970; Mar 31, 2011 at 11:46am.
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 12:00pm   #67
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread BTW See. Awesome call. Had you been in with me, you could have made £100,000 while you slept. I did. Ferrari not on order as Ferrari have banned me for hogging all the new 458s.

Newbies send me your money. Call 09060 SENDCASH.
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 12:04pm   #68
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread Speaking of Ferraris, can I ask one of you kindly gentleman to help me tidy my garden up? I fancy taking my Testorossa for a spin today.

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Mar 31, 2011, 12:37pm   #69
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by the hare View Post
The key point is that I have no control at all over what happens once I'm in a trade, so trying to win is a bit pointless really, its all just probabilities.

I couldnt care less about how many I win, only about how much I make, and the severity of drawdowns (which appreciate noone else has becuase they have a 100% strike rate)
The key point is you have full control before you enter. Like Jesse Livermore said, "Don't take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don't be an impatient trader."

I've learned this lesson the hard, and, I suppose, the only way. I've spent far too many hours in front of the screen so I don't think it's all just probabilities. To me it's a skill that improves with time and experience. I care about being right and only entering when I am certain I have read the market correctly. That pays and pays well.
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Old Apr 10, 2011, 11:05am   #70
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Re: 51%

The only difference between a successful trader and an unsuccessful one, is that the successful trader has found a system that is profitable for them. It does not mean that same system will be profitable for the next trader. How can this be so? Why can two people look at exactly the same identical facts yet argue over what they see? There so many variables in trading that in the end it just comes down to the individual, and whether their choices and decisio making criteria are more successful thn their counter parts.
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