51%

This is a discussion on 51% within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the T2W Archive category; Originally Posted by donaldduke It seems to be much easier to try and make your winners bigger than your losers ...

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Old Mar 30, 2011, 11:39am   #9
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
It seems to be much easier to try and make your winners bigger than your losers than to try and up your win rate.

eg 50% win rate with 1.5 : 1 win/loss ratio

This way even if your win rate turns out to be 45% you still make a profit.

It is still a probability game.

An automated trader can come very close to the expected win %.

A manual trader needs to factor in error tolerance. So your system might need an ideal win rate of 60% but after mistakes (human errors) you only end up with 50%.

So you still want a bigger win/loss ratio than 1:1, even if your win rate is higher than 50%, especially if you are manual.
The problem is that this is still theoretical stuff out of books and does not reflect how you can grow an account in the real world. It works great for systems traders like yourself but not for discretionary traders like me who don't go based on any signal as such but a degree of feel/experience.

In fact, it's also the stuff that vendors like to spout. Are you sure you're not a snake oil vendor?
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Last edited by shadowninja; Mar 30, 2011 at 11:50am.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 12:24pm   #10
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Re: 51%

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I think you're confusing what I think with what others say. The points of my post is that I'm stating it isn't a flicking coin so thanks for reading my post carefully. The 51% probability thing is what I hear a lot of people talking about when having an edge. And your conclusion is the same as what I wrote.
Yes sorry for misquoting you, I thought that were comparing casinos with the stockmarket, and talking about small edges.

As we came to the same conclusion, surely the next question or set of questions must be:

What is a strike rate? Does a target always have to be hit?
How do we get a high probability strike rate? (i Mean 75% + with r:r at least 1:1)
Is it possible to get a high strike rate? Because if we dont think it is possible then there is no need to go any further.
What do I personally need to do to get a high strike rate?
If I know what to do and Im not doing it, why am I not doing it?

Then you will know why so many fail to attain a high strike rate, then:

Finally, why be bothered with what others say/do?

If you are a discretionary trader with a high strike rate, then power cuts etc are not really an issue.

As new_trader pointed out, maybe this discussion is not relevant when some traders are system based.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 12:47pm   #11
 
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Re: 51%

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As we came to the same conclusion, surely the next question or set of questions must be:

What is a strike rate? Does a target always have to be hit?
This is precisely the problem with saying 2:1 or whatever. What if you only see 1.8? Does a trader accept a loss for the sake of 3 pips??

How do we get a high probability strike rate? (i Mean 75% + with r:r at least 1:1)
Is it possible to get a high strike rate? Because if we dont think it is possible then there is no need to go any further.
And this is also an issue - if we accept the world isn't perfect, then we need to make sure how we trade caters for Acts of God.

What do I personally need to do to get a high strike rate?
If I know what to do and Im not doing it, why am I not doing it?
Then you will know why so many fail to attain a high strike rate, then:
Finally, why be bothered with what others say/do?
Indeed. It's just something that's been on my mind (as I wrote initially) and thought others ought to consider it.

If you are a discretionary trader with a high strike rate, then power cuts etc are not really an issue.
That's exactly it - a trader needs a high strike rate if they are manually taking trades.

As new_trader pointed out, maybe this discussion is not relevant when some traders are system based.
Yep. But then can the manual system traders guarantee to be around for every trade? What if they trade FX?





As many of you know, I've been dabbling in sports trading for several months and the anti-51% edge thought comes as a result of observing very efficient markets.

Brace yourself for the next outrageous statement: Anyone who claims the financial markets are efficient doesn't have a clue.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:08pm   #12
 
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Re: 51%

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How do we get a high probability strike rate? (i Mean 75% + with r:r at least 1:1)
You wont get a win rate of 75%+ while using fixed 1:1 stops, i mean real ones you actually hold with your broker.

And so you will have to take some large losses every now and then.

Last edited by donaldduke; Mar 30, 2011 at 1:13pm.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:12pm   #13
 
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Re: 51%

more to point 51% rate on 1:1 system is never going to be anything anyone with a brain is goign to trade in practice as there simply isn't that certainty...
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:20pm   #14
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
You wont get a win rate of 75%+ while using fixed 1:1 stops, i mean real ones you actually hold with your broker.

And so you will have to take some large losses every now and then.
Indeedy.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:21pm   #15
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
more to point 51% rate on 1:1 system is never going to be anything anyone with a brain is goign to trade in practice as there simply isn't that certainty...
Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to suit the market so just how do you measure probability? It goes up and down depending on how quickly I adapt.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:34pm   #16
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Re: 51%

There is a difference between strike rate and real odds , ie : if you trade system X and your strike rate is 62% this doesnt mean the real odds for this system is also 62% , it could be 49% but you managed to achieve 62% in the period in question .
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