51%

This is a discussion on 51% within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Replies in bold: As we came to the same conclusion, surely the next question or set of questions must be: ...

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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:47pm   #11
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread Replies in bold:

As we came to the same conclusion, surely the next question or set of questions must be:

What is a strike rate? Does a target always have to be hit?
This is precisely the problem with saying 2:1 or whatever. What if you only see 1.8? Does a trader accept a loss for the sake of 3 pips??

How do we get a high probability strike rate? (i Mean 75% + with r:r at least 1:1)
Is it possible to get a high strike rate? Because if we dont think it is possible then there is no need to go any further.
And this is also an issue - if we accept the world isn't perfect, then we need to make sure how we trade caters for Acts of God.

What do I personally need to do to get a high strike rate?
If I know what to do and Im not doing it, why am I not doing it?
Then you will know why so many fail to attain a high strike rate, then:
Finally, why be bothered with what others say/do?
Indeed. It's just something that's been on my mind (as I wrote initially) and thought others ought to consider it.

If you are a discretionary trader with a high strike rate, then power cuts etc are not really an issue.
That's exactly it - a trader needs a high strike rate if they are manually taking trades.

As new_trader pointed out, maybe this discussion is not relevant when some traders are system based.
Yep. But then can the manual system traders guarantee to be around for every trade? What if they trade FX?





As many of you know, I've been dabbling in sports trading for several months and the anti-51% edge thought comes as a result of observing very efficient markets.

Brace yourself for the next outrageous statement: Anyone who claims the financial markets are efficient doesn't have a clue.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:08pm   #12
 
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Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
How do we get a high probability strike rate? (i Mean 75% + with r:r at least 1:1)
You wont get a win rate of 75%+ while using fixed 1:1 stops, i mean real ones you actually hold with your broker.

And so you will have to take some large losses every now and then.

Last edited by donaldduke; Mar 30, 2011 at 2:13pm.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:12pm   #13
 
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Re: 51%

more to point 51% rate on 1:1 system is never going to be anything anyone with a brain is goign to trade in practice as there simply isn't that certainty...
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:20pm   #14
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
You wont get a win rate of 75%+ while using fixed 1:1 stops, i mean real ones you actually hold with your broker.

And so you will have to take some large losses every now and then.
Indeedy.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:21pm   #15
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
more to point 51% rate on 1:1 system is never going to be anything anyone with a brain is goign to trade in practice as there simply isn't that certainty...
Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to suit the market so just how do you measure probability? It goes up and down depending on how quickly I adapt.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:34pm   #16
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Re: 51%

There is a difference between strike rate and real odds , ie : if you trade system X and your strike rate is 62% this doesnt mean the real odds for this system is also 62% , it could be 49% but you managed to achieve 62% in the period in question .
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:39pm   #17
 
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Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to suit the market so just how do you measure probability? It goes up and down depending on how quickly I adapt.
You could look at the series of returns and just use standard statistical analysis, null hypothethis being that system is not 51%+ reliable...

(and cause of that you are not goign to get a big enough sample size so you can't do it, in pracitce...)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:41pm   #18
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread
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Originally Posted by tar View Post
There is a difference between strike rate and real odds , ie : if you trade system X and your strike rate is 62% this doesnt mean the real odds for this system is also 62% , it could be 49% but you managed to achieve 62% in the period in question .
That's the thing. if the real odds are that bad, expect some lean times ahead especially in Darren World where things never go according to plan.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:43pm   #19
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
You could look at the series of returns and just use standard statistical analysis, null hypothethis being that system is not 51%+ reliable...

(and cause of that you are not goign to get a big enough sample size so you can't do it, in pracitce...)
Yeah... I don't trade enough as I'm more a swinger. It'd work fine for my sports trading (100 matched bets yesterday!).
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:47pm   #20
 
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Re: 51%

how is that going? are you ready to start a journal here about it?

(ignore the ph challenge thread, that tldr)
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