Brexit and the Consequences

This is a discussion on Brexit and the Consequences within the The Foyer forums, part of the Off the Grid category; The EU have admitted they have no plans for a no deal scenario. Their recovery is weak with flat interest ...

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Old Oct 22, 2017, 9:59pm   #4049
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The EU have admitted they have no plans for a no deal scenario. Their recovery is weak with flat interest rates and QE continuing until at least next September. Let's look at the core inflation rate for a moment

France 0.5
Italy 0.7
Spain 1.2
Germany 1.48
Poland 1.0
Netherlands 0.9
Ireland 0.1
Greece 0.5
Portugal 1.31

For the EU to be in a strong position to handle a hit of no deal they would need to be in a much better position to offset the hit. Even if we are just 2 percent of their Gdp, it's 2 percent they currently can't afford to give a haircut. They need every bit of growth they can get their paws on and therefore you can only conclude they are trying to show the rest of the EU what happens when you leave the boys club.

The UK holds 3rd place globally in measures of inventiveness behind Sweden and Switzerland. We are also ranked 7th for ease of doing business with only Denmark and Norway from Europe ahead of us. We are also the top leader globally in financial services and fintech. We have some of the top universities globally here and have a strong investment attraction globally. Point is we are not mudflaps that can be showcased as an example of what happens if you leave. We will tear the EU a new one when the 27 members see just how strong we have become and they will want some of that Anti EU pie as well.
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Old Oct 22, 2017, 10:30pm   #4050
 
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Originally Posted by counter_violent View Post
Wot a pile of utter tosh.

For starters, not everything about Brexit is economic.

The UK is the 5th largest economy, so of course we will demand a suitable deal. Just like the TPP deal, USA didn't get what they want either and they are number 1. Get back in the queue!

No deal is also fine. It won't take long for the rest of Europe to come with the begging bowl, once they see the hardship it will cause in other European countries. No deal is worst deal. WTO will be green light for businesses to leave UK

Then we have the issue of the UK doing very nicely and the rest of the EU exporting their unemployment problem to the UK. That's a new one. What you mean is UK workers will not get out of bed unless they get the salary they want. Then you have the audacity to knock trade unions and shout out how great Thatcher was. You one big mixed up geezer.
As a direct consequence of this, the other member countries go backwards as their highly skilled desert their homeland in order to profit from the UK economy. Now you are a bleeding heart are you? UK I guess does not benefit from skilled labour and should hire numpties who want higher wages for less skills, brains and graft. Another direct consequence is that the UK cannot keep up with service provision because it cannot plan for ever increasing numbers using those services. Of course it can, simply that Tories prefer to give tax cuts instead of investing in public service. Majority of increase in costs down to elderly people living longer and more young children been taken into care and lack of homes because they've been sold off into the private sector.
Another direct consequence is the housing stock, which is either unaffordable, or insufficient in number to house all these interlopers, which in turn affected the life chances of the indigenous population.
Another direct consequence is the number of unskilled economic migrants who have kept down the wages of the lower paid for decades. The real trouble started though when this mass pool of cheap labour started to affect the middle classes, skilled workers etc. That is why Brexit happened. The UK reached the tipping point where the majority of people said enough is enough. How else do you think UK can compete with rest of the world?

And finally, yes we are entitled to our share of the assets. So you just watch what happens when / if a no deal is announced. The next moves will be through the courts to recover the assets. The fact that no one is talking about this presently is because the UK is trying to get the EU to see sense and to afford them the opportunity to continue trade without the need to play hard ball. Tosh. They'll both retreat to their own corner and WTO will lead to higher costs for non-productive and disruption of trade. UK will lose more than EU no doubt about it.
If the EU continues with the "hard ball" rhetoric, then don't be surprised if the UK walks away, ups the anti, and puts the boot in. In this scenario, the EU project will be finished for good. Yes by droping corporation tax leading to deterioration in fiscal policy and continued run down of public service. They'll also borrow more for infrastructure projects to bolster loss of trade but due to insufficient skilled labour continue to import migrants.

You are blinkered to facts and analysis and all based on hope and big talk that doesn't add up.


Just a reminder again. Lib Dem revival ain't gonna happen. Last election saw vote share go down not up. There is no stopping Brexit, there is no public support to reverse Brexit, just a pile of obstruction and wishful thinking from those who think they know better than the majority.
Parliament already talking about voting to retract article 50.

You better write to your MP.
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Old Oct 22, 2017, 10:45pm   #4051
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if i was the eu negotiators i would have the following strategy.

Start all negotiations (no blockers) but state on the contentious points that the agreement is dependent on a bill being settled with the amount being agreed at a later stage.This seems logical to me and is yet more evidence that suggests we are being made an example.


In the art of war there are similarities to moves the EU are making. Lets take a leaf out of our own book and hit them where they think we are bluffing. I would put money on them having a sudden change of mind. Drawing on the similarities of brexit where the shock outcome; the EU will suddenly realise the magnitude of derailment to their money printing recovery. They wont realise this through intelligent analysis,the euro is an example of their ability to decide policy. Their undoing will be the cries of discomfort from a large group of economies who face a >2% GDP hit that is sprinkled with job losses.
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Old Oct 22, 2017, 10:45pm   #4052
 
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. Right now, I'm extremely confident (more so than a year ago) that my decision to vote leave was the right one.


Tim.

Yes, i remember you having a bit of a wobble on the eve of the election

at least you came to your senses
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Old Oct 22, 2017, 11:43pm   #4053
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Parliament already talking about voting to retract article 50.

You better write to your MP.
They can talk all they like.
Article 50 won't be retracted.

Might be worth you checking out all the latest polls. Public position is hardening, especially because they don't think May is handling negotiations at all well. If she continues down this appeasement route then we could well see her swift removal.

JRM would be a very popular replacement as he is completely untarnished, but has put out the Brexit message that chimes with the public. Great orator, principled, clear vision. Everything that May is not.

We live in hope!
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 7:11am   #4054
 
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Originally Posted by counter_violent View Post
They can talk all they like.
Article 50 won't be retracted.

Might be worth you checking out all the latest polls. Public position is hardening, especially because they don't think May is handling negotiations at all well. If she continues down this appeasement route then we could well see her swift removal.

JRM would be a very popular replacement as he is completely untarnished, but has put out the Brexit message that chimes with the public. Great orator, principled, clear vision. Everything that May is not.

We live in hope!
Most people consider Moggy as a boring middle aged white man in a pin striped suit. With 7 children he might show some restraint too.
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 8:38am   #4055
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Most people consider Moggy as a boring middle aged white man in a pin striped suit. With 7 children he might show some restraint too.
He's a devout Catholic Pat - so I suspect restraint isn't the issue!
Tim.
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 8:56am   #4056
 
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He's a devout Catholic Pat - so I suspect restraint isn't the issue!
Tim.
With a world too rapidly filling up with people it should imho be an important issue.
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