UK 2015 General Election - Competition

Pat Riley

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@Sharky did us real proud with the Scotland Independence Referendum by putting up a prize of £25,000 for the competition winner. Can’t remember who bagged it, but I’m sure they’re eternally grateful. I’d like to suggest he’ll want to show us even greater largesse this time what with it being that much more of an important do altogether. But if he’s on hard times and doesn’t even know where the money’s comin from for the next bikini wax, well, we’ll have a competition just for the fun of it.

Here’s me suggestion.

We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.

Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.

Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.

Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.

I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.

I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.
 
@Sharky did us real proud with the Scotland Independence Referendum by putting up a prize of £25,000 for the competition winner. Can’t remember who bagged it, but I’m sure they’re eternally grateful. I’d like to suggest he’ll want to show us even greater largesse this time what with it being that much more of an important do altogether. But if he’s on hard times and doesn’t even know where the money’s comin from for the next bikini wax, well, we’ll have a competition just for the fun of it.

Here’s me suggestion.

We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.

Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.

Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.

Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.

I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.

I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.

Grrreat idea :)



294 - Conservative
287 - Labour
25 - Lib-Dem
8 - UKIP
55 - SNP
 
Cynical Pat just had a word in me ear and I'm going ta suggest one proviso for entries. Members have ta have been a member of the site as of yesterday (Sunday April 26th) to qualify. Pre-existing multi-nics free to vote as many times as they have nics subject to moderators' discretion. I'm assuming the mods don't have multi-nics but who knows these days?
 
Good man Atilla (what about the percentage turnout?). I'm about ta have a shot at it meself.
 
Conservatives - 267
Labour - 244
Lib-Dem - 39
UKIP - 26
SNP - 38

Turnout 68%
 
294 - Conservative
287 - Labour
25 - Lib-Dem
8 - UKIP
55 - SNP

Turnout: 72%% - Your country needs you :)
 
[MENTION=3]I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons,.

Probably haven't got a vote in the UK being Irish ? Or am I just nit-picking ?

:p

Cons 246
Labour 236
UKIP 33
LIBs 10
SNP 44
Others 100

% of vote 79
 
Probably haven't got a vote in the UK being Irish ? Or am I just nit-picking ?
Citizens of the Republic of Ireland, providing they are registered to vote, may do so in a UK general election. However, members of the House of Lords are not. I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

Lord Riley of Dublin
 
Citizens of the Republic of Ireland, providing they are registered to vote, may do so in a UK general election. However, members of the House of Lords are not. I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

Lord Riley of Dublin

Really ? In which constituency ?
Can't think why. We haven't got a vote in Eire, have we ?

So that's why the Tories keep getting in. Or were they Whigs ?
 
All RoI citizens who are eligible to vote in UK elections can do so for any party putting up a candidate in their constituency. Just the same as any British citizens eligible to vote in Dáil elections may do so under the 9th amendment of the Constitution of Ireland.
 
Really ? In which constituency ?

In the constituency in which they live and are on the electoral roll. Was there a misunderstanding, here? Pat was surely referring to citizens of the Republic of Eire who live in the UK? :)
 
Thanks for doing this, Pat. :cool:

Conservatives: 269
Labour: 274
Lib Dems: 31
SNP: 49
Ukip: 4

Will be back when I change my mind ... :eek:
 
Heard a radio interview with Clegg. I have a flat opinion of politicians in general, but this is the first time I've listened to one and thought, there's a decent chap. Honest and possessing integrity and commonsense. Now if I'm thinking that then I reckon others probably are too. So I'm changing me predictions to reflect what I consider are likely to be changing attitudes to the Lib-Dem vote. I can't in any sensible way currently increase the number for Lib-Dems, but I can take a swadge off of Farage (from whom I think many disenchanted voters would have possible thrown in with had their not been a sensible alternative in the shape of Lib-Dems) and give it to the SNP, for now.

Conservatives - 282
Labour - 269
Lib-Dem - 39
UKIP - 4
SNP - 49

Turnout 68%
 
Heard a radio interview with Clegg. I have a flat opinion of politicians in general, but this is the first time I've listened to one and thought, there's a decent chap. Honest and possessing integrity and commonsense. Now if I'm thinking that then I reckon others probably are too. So I'm changing me predictions to reflect what I consider are likely to be changing attitudes to the Lib-Dem vote. I can't in any sensible way currently increase the number for Lib-Dems, but I can take a swadge off of Farage (from whom I think many disenchanted voters would have possible thrown in with had their not been a sensible alternative in the shape of Lib-Dems) and give it to the SNP, for now.

Conservatives - 282
Labour - 269
Lib-Dem - 39
UKIP - 4
SNP - 49

Turnout 68%

If UKIP voters had any sense and interest of the country they'd vote Conservative. Otherwise they'll be letting in Labour and the SNP.

I think Tories and Liberals have done well bringing us through the last 5 years. (y)
 
If UKIP voters had any sense and interest of the country they'd vote Conservative. Otherwise they'll be letting in Labour and the SNP.

I think Tories and Liberals have done well bringing us through the last 5 years. (y)


Depends on your constituency. Where I live, you could put a monkey Up for Conservative and it would still get an enviable majority. This gives thinking, old-fashioned Conservatives a chance to show their disapproval of "call me Dave" who doesn't really seem to know what he believes in from one week to the next.


"I think Tories and Liberals have done well bringing us through the last 5 years" – I wholeheartedly agree with that.
 
Depends on your constituency. Where I live, you could put a monkey Up for Conservative and it would still get an enviable majority. This gives thinking, old-fashioned Conservatives a chance to show their disapproval of "call me Dave" who doesn't really seem to know what he believes in from one week to the next.


"I think Tories and Liberals have done well bringing us through the last 5 years" – I wholeheartedly agree with that.

You live in Richmond :?:
 
Heard a radio interview with Clegg. I have a flat opinion of politicians in general, but this is the first time I've listened to one and thought, there's a decent chap. Honest and possessing integrity and commonsense. Now if I'm thinking that then I reckon others probably are too.

I've always thought that about the majority of Lib Dems I've heard talking individually at any length: they always seem fundamentally honest, well-intentioned and decent. But I still think some of their policies, collectively, suck.

If UKIP voters had any sense and interest of the country they'd vote Conservative. Otherwise they'll be letting in Labour and the SNP.

Such anomalies are going to remain a feature of UK politics until there's a vote-counting system that better represents the collective will of the electorate. If you said what you've just said above to someone who was planning to vote UKIP, they might tell you that that's a very short-term view, and that it's only by coming "a good second" in 60 constituencies this time (as they may) that they can end up with a significant number of MP's in 2020. And they might be right.

"Democracy" isn't in the voting: it's in the counting.

I think Tories and Liberals have done well bringing us through the last 5 years.

It looks that way.

They may have been very lucky with the economy. I'm not sure how much credit they're really due: it's very difficult to know. It sickens me that in "the world's 6th-richest country" a million people are using foodbanks because they're hungry and poor.
 
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