USDCAD (Loonie) Cad to 0.6388 (ie.USD less than 2/3 CAD)

The Baptist

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Hi

I made this Youtube this morning On the USDCAD.

It seems it has just broken now.. Long Run Target 0.6388

I will be back with more details.. seems 6th October was the day for the break down.

Whilst a Long Target it will come quicker thane most imagine.. Time frame Guesstimates to follow.. Dollar Toast along with AUD prediction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jenAK4mEd88
 

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Second Chance shorts as suggested may well be offered are on the table...I will be back tomorrow
with a view on how far I suggest the pullback maybe allowing fresh shorts
 
The sound is a bit weird when I play the video.

Good luck with the trade :)
 
That is a bold prediction! As far as I'm aware USDCAD never closed below 0.92 (since 1977, at least), so this would be new territory. Apologies if I'm revisiting ground covered in the video (sound was muffled for me too so I didn't persist) but did you include any economic analysis on USD devaluation? For the time being 82 appears to be protected in USDJPY - do you see that going as well?
 
Firstly apologies.. Sound was dire on Vid clip.. will be better next time.

I have had a similar set up on USDJPY in short the thread is as much about Dollar destruction over anything else.

As someone who tries to view all things from a 'Global Macro Hedgie Perspective'..I have a lot of fundamental reasons why The Dollar will be hammered.. too many to list here.

But a few quick thoughts for you, a US based prof of economics has placed a value of $200 Trillion on US unfunded liabilities - Where in the 30's there were 32 workers per pensioner it is expected in the peak of the Boomers pensioner years that ratio will drop to 3 workers per pensioner.. ( Longer Life, Medicine advances, huge demographic..)

US had first year this year of bigger payouts too Take in's for welfare etc.. that will be a fixture from 2015..

In short the above prof puts real debt incl. Unfunded liabilities at a whopping 560% of GDP ( Pharma costs are high and escalating)..

Under funded ill Boomers to get payments to kids for voluntary Euthansia anyone.. time to think unthinkable.. by comparison Japans 200% is far less and supported by domestic saving of citizens..

Further to which and my pet hate of deflationists is the statement that EU&US will do a Japan.. in deflationary sense.

Deflation will only apply to Over leveraged, overvalued assets as lending contracts, and to me that is not deflation just revaluation of overvalued assets due to lax lending and negative real interest rates for years (thanks Al G).

To be clear since the 80's Japan's bubble the Yen has dropped from 650 Yen to the pound to 130! And 265 to USD to 83!

A currency which net appreciates like this should buy you more every year.. On the contrary USD & GBP are epic devaluations in place.. hence commodity based increases in $ terms Cotton, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Wheat, Precious Metals, Rare Earth Elements and more to join them.

Stagflation awaits the west particularly the over indebted US - a combo of Hyperinflation and very low growth --- Reverse Goldilocks Economy is required to undo Al G's ' Consumption' Based Miracle Economy he bequeathed us.

I will post the Yen chart and pattern for your benefit with a Target if that is of value to you.

In Short Kerchievel got 9 years for almost destroying his bank what should Al get for Burning $14 Trillion and counting? He will impoverish an entire generation and cost his nation the Base Currency benefits it so exploited.

Best Wishes.
 
Yen to 45.03 to USD

Here are My Yen Predictions...

You will like this... JPY will hit 45.03 to the dollar within 3.5 years...

Yup you read right only Ballsy predictions around here. Bearing in mind we hit 95 in May 2010. I am predicting a 52% annihilation from 2010 highs.. and a 45% devaluation FROM 81.91 Current LEVELS.

It is my view that the current downside will continue to a Target level 79.04 taking out lat lows marginally, this will be a key stall level, with stops and headlines all a flutter, the dollar will bounce and may congest in the 79 - 86/7 range for possibly a year maybe more.

However when the final leg to the primary target occurs it will brutal and profitable and the $ = 45 Yen! During 2012 or 2013 latest q1 2014

Charts will follow.
 
45...NO CHANCE :LOL: not even in the med to longer term.

In the shorter term Usd Jpy could extend down to the 79/80 levels and then rebound back to 83. The speed of any turn when it comes will be dramatic. It's what happens after which is un-known....most likely a sideways to rising consolidation with false breaks both ways, before eventually making a clean break back North....target un-known.
 
A couple of the charts...
 

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Yen will be worse than AUD or CAD to $

45...NO CHANCE :LOL: not even in the med to longer term.

In the shorter term Usd Jpy could extend down to the 79/80 levels and then rebound back to 83. The speed of any turn when it comes will be dramatic. It's what happens after which is un-known....most likely a sideways to rising consolidation with false breaks both ways, before eventually making a clean break back North....target un-known.

This is why I like Macro Thread calls... most cant Percieve wholesale shifts beyond their typical range even over 3 or 4 years.

I bet you wouldn't have bought it when the Yen was 265 that it would be 83 either?:smart:

CV you have previous you know fella ...

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/72370-2nd-september-day-9.html#post907032

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/72370-2nd-september-day-9.html#post907032

Something about Gold when it was $1,016 on 16.9.09 going straight down through my called break level at $962 and certainly not seeing $1300 in a year - No Inflation etc..

This time it must be 'No Dollar collapse' coming.. I could be wrong or early, but at a chart level I am seeing 30% + depreciations on CAD & AUD vs $ and a 40+% fall vs Yen.

Feels like a confluence to me..

Good luck either way, a lot can happen in 3 - 4 years and in this economic system I would think it more likely than not..:clap:
 
Re: Yen will be worse than AUD or CAD to $

This is why I like Macro Thread calls... most cant Percieve wholesale shifts beyond their typical range even over 3 or 4 years.

I bet you wouldn't have bought it when the Yen was 265 that it would be 83 either?:smart:

CV you have previous you know fella ...

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/72370-2nd-september-day-9.html#post907032

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/72370-2nd-september-day-9.html#post907032

Something about Gold when it was $1,016 on 16.9.09 going straight down through my called break level at $962 and certainly not seeing $1300 in a year - No Inflation etc..

The idea behind QE was to halt a deflationary spiral. So the idea that gold has risen as a result of inflationary pressures is a nonsense frankly. It has a whole lot more to do with the fact that gold is priced in dollars and that said dollar has declined against everything. Has gold risen because it is worth more in real terms !!

This time it must be 'No Dollar collapse' coming.. I could be wrong or early, but at a chart level I am seeing 30% + depreciations on CAD & AUD vs $ and a 40+% fall vs Yen.

Feels like a confluence to me..

Good luck either way, a lot can happen in 3 - 4 years and in this economic system I would think it more likely than not..:clap:


I've been back over that thread and see no problems with any of my posts. Perhaps you can re-read them and tell me where you think it is ""that i have previous! "

At no point was I foolish enough to stick my neck out and commit. :)

However, ref Usd Jpy I will stick my neck out and say 45 is not going to happen in the next 5 yrs, if ever. Hows that !
 
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Re: Yen will be worse than AUD or CAD to $

I've been back over that thread and see no problems with any of my posts. Perhaps you can re-read them and tell me where you think it is ""that i have previous! "

At no point was I foolish enough to stick my neck out and commit. :)

However, ref Usd Jpy I will stick my neck out and say 45 is not going to happen in the next 5 yrs, if ever. Hows that !

Thats commitment, take a position.. well done.

If you re-read the post though you said Gold would 'break back down' through initial level.. minor point posted in jest, given your strong JPY feelings, you were suitably open-minded and unoffensive in comparison so fair play..to you:)

Time will tell and I will still be around here for 5 more years or sooner.. But This thread shall live awhile as I have found my counter point now and I suspect many more will join you especially in the early period..:p
 
Re: Yen will be worse than AUD or CAD to $

Thats commitment, take a position.. well done.

If you re-read the post though you said Gold would 'break back down' through initial level.. minor point posted in jest, given your strong JPY feelings, you were suitably open-minded and unoffensive in comparison so fair play..to you:)

Time will tell and I will still be around here for 5 more years or sooner.. But This thread shall live awhile as I have found my counter point now and I suspect many more will join you especially in the early period..:p

The problem with time horizons like this is that anything ( world events)can and probably will happen in the mean time. So for me they almost become meaningless. How many traders here can honestly say they would hold a position for years let alone months or even weeks. Not many I expect. Rather they would be termed investors, preferring to deal directly in physical tangible assets.

Yes and I will remain open minded at all times.:)

Good trading to you.
 
Anyone aware of any psychological/cultural/trading/other barriers to CAD > USD?

Out of interest, Baptist, if you're right, would you hold a short position continuously for 1000days, or get in and out on the way down?

Good thread
 
1 : 36,4 Risk Reward Trade at Entry

1 : 36,4 Risk Reward Trade at Entry


Set up was at
Sell Stop Entry (RL3) 1.0236

Stop Loss (RH3) 1.0345

By definition of my trade and stated Risk:Reward and Thread purpose - I am stating that the Loonie will not see 1.0345 again before hitting 0.6386

This some 37.6% away, The Distance to stop at entry was 108.5 pips - Target 3850.0 pips Enjoy.

If the trade took as many as a 1000days to complete Annualised return on Risk would be 1,274.85% Annualise or 3,541.24% Total.

Enjoy.
 

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Anyone aware of any psychological/cultural/trading/other barriers to CAD > USD?

Out of interest, Baptist, if you're right, would you hold a short position continuously for 1000days, or get in and out on the way down?

Good thread

Hi Dommo,

Apart from the intertwining of their proximity and trade relations I do not see any issue, if I have understood this correctly. Given Canada's commodity strength they will be insulated a large degree by their Neghbours weakness, Canada cleaned up their defceit awhile ago..

I predict Canucks will all soon own cheap Florida Bolt holes though..as CAD appreciates

Yes I will hold a position the whole way, this one will be small so I can live through the drawdowns.. Gold retraced 15% on its way to north of $1300.

However I will trade the shorter term set ups short within this too for shorter moves, with bigger size. So the view also provides a Bias for searching out breaks to the short side.

On the Gold trade I posted up a profit statement, after being challenged, showing a £33K profit on the run up from $989 to $1006/7 which I waded into quiet heavily on a smaller Daily set up to the long side. This was primarily how I traded it all the way through.

In the Gold trade I did not retain even a small trade all the way through, something I regret greatly, and trade size was the key, we pulled back from $1225 - $1044 and had you not been in from $962 with a small size you could not have lived with the doubt and pain of that drawdown, even all of it being profit.

On Macro Moves coping with Drawdown is Key, so should get in on the move from the outset. to keep mental balance.

Thank you for the compliment ref Thread, I am considering a 'Global Macro's Thread Calls' with a few similarly big trades... even if people do not trade them maybe It would be helpful for general Bias trades..

Would it be of interest? Flag or comment if so.. Thanks trade well..

(y)
 
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Thanks, Baptist. Yes, you understood me correctly - I was getting at anything peculiar to the US/Canada relationship that might be problematic when USD < CAD. I can't think of anything.

You have a very clear mid-long term bias so your strategy of holding (and mopping up some vol on the way down) makes sense to me.

I'm sure you'd get a lot of interest in a global macro thread - especially if you put down your economic/fundamental reasoning (as you have here).

Good luck with this trade - I will follow with interest.
 
Dollar destruction continues

While Germany talk of all QE support being removed for the EURO the Fed hints at more QE...


USDCAD pushes lower still
 
Thanks, Baptist. Yes, you understood me correctly - I was getting at anything peculiar to the US/Canada relationship that might be problematic when USD < CAD. I can't think of anything.

You have a very clear mid-long term bias so your strategy of holding (and mopping up some vol on the way down) makes sense to me.

I'm sure you'd get a lot of interest in a global macro thread - especially if you put down your economic/fundamental reasoning (as you have here).

Good luck with this trade - I will follow with interest.

Macro Trade Comments appreciated. May take some time over the next few days to get some proper Thread and Macro details down.. Dollar destruction is one manifested stronglo Loonie, Ozzie and USDJPY. Even a Macro RobCoffee Lon probably once again points to hyperinflation and western Currency devaluation.
 
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