Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

This is a discussion on Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10 within the Forex Net Trap forums, part of the T2W Archive category; Originally Posted by Rugby Trader I've come up with a unique MM system for HNT which i've backtested over the ...

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Old Sep 10, 2010, 6:28pm   #46
Joined Jun 2010
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by Rugby Trader View Post
I've come up with a unique MM system for HNT which i've backtested over the course of the year. This method has produced 28.6% more £ profit than using a standard 2% of bank method.

The full name of this system is Rugby Trader’s Turbo Lightning Profit Butterfly Catcher Money Mangement Super Dooper System ©
My lawyers are watching you!

Let me know what your thoughts are on this?
Thanks for this RT. It's a very interesting idea. I agree that with variants like HNT and INT which generally win more often than VNT it could be quite good. The problem is that even HNT and INT still have their bad months when they WLWLWLWL, and in these months you would get caned using this MM system. With markets being what they are (spontaneous and unpredictable, as they should be) there's no way of telling when INT and VNT might have a bad run.

Having said that, if you were to use this MM system for a whole year, and HNT and INT happened to perform as designed (winning regularly) for most of the year, it would definitely be more profitable. So it comes down to attitude to risk at the end of the day, rather than something that can be planned based on previous results.

Your MM system is very interesting though. I like it. But it does scare me a little!
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 6:39pm   #47
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

May I add my voice to the MAP (Mark Appreciation Society). Truly great work. I can't help thinking however, that RH and/or Agora will ultimately be the main beneficiaries from all this backtesting of variants. Don't put it past them to 'upgrade' NT (as HNT 40 or other variant) and don't think for a second that they are not registered on this private forum. They know already. Although they can claim they invented NT, and we shouldn't forget that, it would be a huge injustice if they were the only ones to financially benefit from marketing a variant discussed and tested on the forum. Not sure what you can do about it though.
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 7:17pm   #48
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by gav2e View Post
May I add my voice to the MAP (Mark Appreciation Society). Truly great work. I can't help thinking however, that RH and/or Agora will ultimately be the main beneficiaries from all this backtesting of variants. Don't put it past them to 'upgrade' NT (as HNT 40 or other variant) and don't think for a second that they are not registered on this private forum. They know already. Although they can claim they invented NT, and we shouldn't forget that, it would be a huge injustice if they were the only ones to financially benefit from marketing a variant discussed and tested on the forum. Not sure what you can do about it though.
Paypal him a contribution? Mark, why not leave a Paypal link where grateful punters could send a donation. I'd be happy to.
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 8:23pm   #49
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Newbie here, so not that much to say just yet EXCEPT a huge thank you to Mark for all this info! Gee, did you really only just open a spreadbetting account this year?! Who wants to be like Mike when they they can be like Mark :-)
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 8:37pm   #50
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by Mazzeria View Post
Newbie here, so not that much to say just yet EXCEPT a huge thank you to Mark for all this info! Gee, did you really only just open a spreadbetting account this year?! Who wants to be like Mike when they they can be like Mark :-)
Aye.......first ever spreadbet was Net-trap on 17/5/10 when my spreadsheet starts and it was a no trigger, huge anti-climax!

M
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 10:13pm   #51
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Hi All.

Ok Trade Matched results time for this week as RH released his update so quickly.

No RH has clarifed the full Bank Holiday trading rules Mondays 10 pips by all had to be scraped. But my 12.5 pips I actually traded are now sitting as hard cash in my pot!

Have to say VNT is having it's best start to a month since July and is doing well for a change compared to variants, but INT is still just ahead of it for Sept.

This is nice but also worrying as for the first 2 weeks of July I was up 199 pips the for the back end of July NT went **** just as I moved up to £4 pip.

But then again this site was not live back then.

M
Attached Files
File Type: xls Net Trap Variant Results 170510 to 100910.xls (155.0 KB, 166 views)

Last edited by mark120169; Sep 11, 2010 at 5:59pm.
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 9:54am   #52
Joined Jun 2010
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

As promised, here's some more info on the 8 different INT variants that I'm currently tracking on a daily basis.

As you can see from Mark's fantastic spreadsheet, INT is one of the top performers of all the VNT variants in 2010. In fact, when everything is scaled back relative to 2%MM, INT is THE best performing variant overall since the beginning of the year, by some distance.

So I just want to start with a brief explanation of why I like INT so much, because I know it's not everyone's cup of tea.

1) Because you're not placing orders, you get NO SLIPPAGE on entry.

2) It has pretty conservative profit targets, which take maximum advantage of GBP/USD's habit of going in the direction of the 40MA for 20-40 points, only to reverse again.

3) INT variants are easier to trade PSYCHOLOGICALLY because on average they win more often. They also get you in and out the market within an hour on most days.

4) INT variants typically enter the market at a position that is 5 pips better than the NT entry. Sometimes it's even better than 5 pips if you were to get slippage on your NT order entry (pretty likely with IG Index!).

So without further ado here are the 8 different INT variants I'm currently tracking. Although some of them may seem very similar, the reason I've developed so many variants is because I'm convinced that successfully trading GBP/USD long-term requires that you continually ADAPT your system to the underlying market structure. Although vanilla INT has proven to be pretty profitable since beginning of 2010, switching between the different variants would've been even more profitable. In other words, I'm trying to develop a range of INT variants that will cover many different market conditions between them.

All INT variants are based on 2% MM and instant entry at 06:30, as soon as the 06:15 to 06:30 15-minute candle CLOSES and the 06:30 to 06:45 15-minute candle OPENS.

1. INT: 25 LIMIT, 30 STOP
2. 27INT27: 27 LIMIT, 27 STOP
3. 30INT25: 30 LIMIT, 25 STOP
4. 20INT27: 20 LIMIT, 27 STOP
5. 30INT40: 30 LIMIT, 40 STOP
6. 30INT30: 30 LIMIT, 30 STOP
7. 40INT40: 40 LIMIT, 40 STOP
8. 44INT27: 44 LIMIT, 27 STOP


Please remember that because you enter the market at a position that is typically 5 points better than NT order entry, a 25 stop on an INT entry is typically equivalent to a 30 point stop on an NT entry.

As you can see, they all have different reward:risk ratios, some better than others. But they are all acceptable and profitable RR ratios in my opinion. If we ever get to a period when VNT performs well again, the 44INT27 variant will be massively profitable in my opinion.

I'll be posting a spreadsheet at the end of the month showing the daily results for all 8 INT variants since 19 August, when I started tracking them all.

I know that some of you on this forum are already making very tidy profits from INT, so hopefully the INT variants will make you even more in the future :-)

Last edited by goldfinger777; Sep 11, 2010 at 9:59am. Reason: correction
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 10:34am   #53
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Interesting stuff GF777, will keep an eye on that. thanks

Just thinking re negative r/r ratio on TNT variant, is it 'REALLY' all that bad?

Even though TNT is two trades or two halves of a trade, we're essentially placing the 'same' trade i.e. same signals and direction of trade entry, based on system rules.

We are then practising sensible trade management at 25 pips and taking profit at this level roughly 55% of our target.

And if we then move stop to B/E have a risk free (half) trade to 45 pips ( r/r 0:1 ) mitigating the chance of a loss in the second half of the trade.

So lumping HNT40 and 40NT45 together say we have an overall risk in one trade as max 80 pips loss and a overall reward at max 70 pips profit (or 1.14:1) assuming the same stake levels are applied for both halves of trade.

We could improve this say 38 stop and 27 and 46 limit ratio would fall to 1.04:1, but thats another variant!....arggggg

Or have I got this completly wrong??
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 6:09pm   #54
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by DaxM View Post
You mentioned the more extreme variant..NT 100 etc. Are these in yet?
Dax
Ahhh yes, Tang's Net Trap Unlimited variants with no limit or stoploss just close the trade @ 8.30 if triggered. I have not backtested these but I have trade matched them back to 17/5/10 for fun.

I have two flavours, Tang's origianl NT U/U , no limit or stoploss and NT 100 / U , 100 stoploss and no TP limit. As there have been no 100 pip stoploss hits since 17/5/10 they have identical results. They are :

17/5/10 to 10/9/10 @ +379.3 pips.

June 2010 @ + 49.3 pips

July 2010 @ + 207 pips

Aug 2010 @ + 66 pips.

Sept TD @ +91 pips.

Not bad results and despite no stoploss still a better variant than VNT for returns since 17/5/10! Now that's scary stuff.

M
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 6:45pm   #55
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by me1234 View Post
Paypal him a contribution? Mark, why not leave a Paypal link where grateful punters could send a donation. I'd be happy to.
I've only just read this. Interesting and would be grateful. So here is my suggestion. Lets see where we are come Monday 20th December 2010.

By then the week of Friday 17th December will be complete and we will have 7 months of live data from 17/5/10 to 17/12/10 for variants vs VNT.

If we are still creaming it compared to VNT and everyone has had a chance to make their own trading decisions and if they have gone with a variant or TNT (varaints) and made far greater returns than VNT has then I will set up a paypal email link on a seperate thread so anyone can donate as much or as little as they like to buy me some Christmas beers form the extra winnings you may have gained From June / July / August onwards.

M
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 6:51pm   #56
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Quote:
Originally Posted by gav2e View Post
May I add my voice to the MAP (Mark Appreciation Society). Truly great work. I can't help thinking however, that RH and/or Agora will ultimately be the main beneficiaries from all this backtesting of variants. Don't put it past them to 'upgrade' NT (as HNT 40 or other variant) and don't think for a second that they are not registered on this private forum. They know already. Although they can claim they invented NT, and we shouldn't forget that, it would be a huge injustice if they were the only ones to financially benefit from marketing a variant discussed and tested on the forum. Not sure what you can do about it though.
RH is a member here, his tag is Breakthrough40 and he visits once or twice a week. I do this because NT trading suits my current lifestyle especially during school term time with the kiddy so I wanted to make it work better. Mainly more consistant for compounding weekly.

I share this for all to be like the Polio cure guy for the Net Trap world .

Mind you I have the Admin power to kick "Anyone" off this forum at any time if I wish

M
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 8:26pm   #57
Joined Aug 2010
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Hi Chaps

Mark, some fantastic work done by you putting together all of the variants and doing the invaluable back testing... I know you have heard this before but thank you and well done.

Not sure why but having read all of the posts and in particular the r:r points it got me thinking.

Firstly about a stop of 40 v 30. Undoubtedly the 40 sl has better results than the 30 sl. However, as your hardwork highlights Mark, you then need to scale the 2.67% risk back to 2% which then means that the 30 sl in real terms has better results.

Then considering the 45 limit v the 50 limit, again the 45 limit has shown better results over the period of data that I have access to which is from 17 January to date.

Just watching a particularly bad act on X Factor and it dawned on me that the best result therfore has to be a combination of a 30 sl and a 45 limit. I had a look at the variants spreadsheet and it wasn't there. I have done the best job of back testing that I can and my figures suggest that the points would have returned 723 pts from 17 January to 10 Sept.

More food for thought but I believe that this would be another good performing variant with a good r:r.

Phil

Last edited by phil8; Sep 11, 2010 at 8:33pm.
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 9:17pm   #58
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by mark120169 View Post
I've only just read this. Interesting and would be grateful. So here is my suggestion. Lets see where we are come Monday 20th December 2010.

By then the week of Friday 17th December will be complete and we will have 7 months of live data from 17/5/10 to 17/12/10 for variants vs VNT.

If we are still creaming it compared to VNT and everyone has had a chance to make their own trading decisions and if they have gone with a variant or TNT (varaints) and made far greater returns than VNT has then I will set up a paypal email link on a seperate thread so anyone can donate as much or as little as they like to buy me some Christmas beers form the extra winnings you may have gained From June / July / August onwards.


M
I'll second that. I also think Goldfinger could do with some recognition for his research into INT?
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Old Sep 11, 2010, 10:54pm   #59
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Hi Again

Now on to the best of Jules Holland and typing away whilst listening to the libertines.

Anyway ... another thought occurred to me following my earlier post. Marks figures are highlighting a variant with a 33 sl to have the best results.

Just been doing a bit of back testing and I now think the combination of a 33 sl with a 45 limit actually gives the best return. My testing back to 18 Jan gives 806pts which then needs adjusting at a rate of 2.1% giving 733 pts.

I haven't factored in the 33 sl on sells only but I believe that this would only enhance the results.

Enough now ... glass of wine and some Foo Fighters.

Phil
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Old Sep 12, 2010, 2:16am   #60
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by phil8 View Post
Hi Again

Now on to the best of Jules Holland and typing away whilst listening to the libertines.

Anyway ... another thought occurred to me following my earlier post. Marks figures are highlighting a variant with a 33 sl to have the best results.

Just been doing a bit of back testing and I now think the combination of a 33 sl with a 45 limit actually gives the best return. My testing back to 18 Jan gives 806pts which then needs adjusting at a rate of 2.1% giving 733 pts.

I haven't factored in the 33 sl on sells only but I believe that this would only enhance the results.

Enough now ... glass of wine and some Foo Fighters.

Phil
Not convinced. You are looking at the whole of 2010 which I think is the wrong approach. As I and others have pointed out the market is forever changing it's behaviour and what happened in Jan to May is not what is happening June to now.

My reasoning is that you should only look at whats best performing on a 3 month rolling basis including the TD for the month you're in each week and tweak strategy based on what's working. As someone put it last month on the old RH FNT thread, this is "genius".

Also many are comfortable with a 2.67% risk for full stake and pure pips risk / return not scaled back to 2% mm of a 30 stop.

So on that basis we are in our first tradeable phase of this with June / July / August and Sept TD. So for this current phase we have :

Pure pips this gives us a top three of INT , HNT40 and NT40/40.

Scaled to 2% the top three is INT , HNT33S and HNT40.

So what does this tell you? Pretty much that at the moment 25 limit is optimum (30should be better with INT as GF777 has noted) and the 40 stop still is very helpful too.

Now if the current best performers also have longer term top results, 6 month rolling average, 2010 average etc too then even better. INT is doing well in this respect also we can drag NT40/45 into this mix on that respect becasue it's just behind NT40/40 for pure pips on a 3 month rolling and also a top pure pips performer for 2010.

I am willing to take a bet for fun that NT40 and NT40/45 will both outperform VNT scaled to 2% MM come December 31st 2010.

I think the pure 2% MM risk is a bit of a bogeyman with NT because although weekly drawn down does occur, it's not to often (especially with TNT) and also even VNT has not many problems with monthly draw down, and variants less so and TNT even less again).


M

p.s. But, if you are convinced edit my spreadsheets to reflect your thoughts as Data, prove it, post it under a new spreadsheet title and I will double check it for accuarcy. And also trade it! This is most important. GF777, myself and others had belief to trade our tweaks live for our own cash risk and post results. This is the true test of a varaint. You can prove anything on paper but if you never live trade it you will never know.

No point in sitting there come December saying I could have earned XXX if I had traded that live daily. So are you ready to quit your already good NT40/45 ?

Last edited by mark120169; Sep 12, 2010 at 2:33am.
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