Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

This is a discussion on Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10 within the Forex Net Trap forums, part of the T2W Archive category; For information, the optimum settings for the last three weeks have been 1: Limit40 stop35 (+150) 2: limit 35 stop ...

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Old Aug 30, 2010, 8:06pm   #31
Joined Jun 2009
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

For information, the optimum settings for the last three weeks have been 1: Limit40 stop35 (+150) 2: limit 35 stop 35 (+130) 3: limit 25 stop 35 (+129) 4: limit 50 stop 35 (+128)...am not convinced that going back 6 months or so is that helpful as the last 2 months on all of the systems I use have not been profitable, whilst previously some were having remarkable results. I plan on updating my spreadsheets daily and changing my levels as and when the info shows that the markets are changing. Also, the results have very little bearing on how much the MA moved by. A 40 MA movement of just 1 over the period resulted in a profit of 6 whilst a movement of 27 resulted in a loss of 8. The above results had no interference during the trade - just closed out at 8.30 as per the instructions.
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Old Aug 30, 2010, 8:38pm   #32
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by sarnia cherie View Post
For information, the optimum settings for the last three weeks have been 1: Limit40 stop35 (+150) 2: limit 35 stop 35 (+130) 3: limit 25 stop 35 (+129) 4: limit 50 stop 35 (+128)...am not convinced that going back 6 months or so is that helpful as the last 2 months on all of the systems I use have not been profitable, whilst previously some were having remarkable results. I plan on updating my spreadsheets daily and changing my levels as and when the info shows that the markets are changing. Also, the results have very little bearing on how much the MA moved by. A 40 MA movement of just 1 over the period resulted in a profit of 6 whilst a movement of 27 resulted in a loss of 8. The above results had no interference during the trade - just closed out at 8.30 as per the instructions.
Interesting, the main thing is what you are live trading daily, and making profit on in practice. I have traded HNT40 @ between £2-£3 a pip for the whole of August and back end of July to good effect. The 25 pip limit is stil my favourite and i've always said there is a optimum stop between 35and 40 pips but until I have 12 months of live data (mid May 2011) I won't try and second guess what it is.

M
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Old Aug 30, 2010, 8:49pm   #33
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

I forgot to say that the above results are trading off IG quick charts and no account taken of slippage. Also no stops moved at any time during the trade. In reality there is very little difference in the results between a 35 stop or a 40 stop (10 pips over the whole period), and 40 gives the price more room to breath so I will probably use that.

I stopped trading this for the last week but plan to start trading it again next week so thought I'd put in the leg work to see exactly what has been working in the current market. Whilst it would be ideal to be able to cut the trade when it's in profit and one feels the market is about to turn, the reality is that for some of us 6.30 to 8.30 am can be fairly hectic and the set & forget until 8.30 is preferable.

Last edited by sarnia cherie; Aug 30, 2010 at 9:32pm.
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Old Sep 6, 2010, 6:38pm   #34
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Been out all day but will post an update later tonight. I have however been a busy boy and it will now contain all (apart from most recent) varaint manual backtest results for Jan to May 2010 trade matched to RH results with daily and monthly running totals.

And also a "combined 2010 to date" set for results where the June to Sept live data and jan to May backtest data are combined monthly to give Jan to Sept TD totals.

Thanks go to Rugby Trader and Peterf1966 for supplying me with all the RH updates from Jan to Mid May 2010.

And this was a **** load of work including double checking so i have no intention of repeating the work for 2009 in Forex Tester mainly becasue ;

A) VNT was not available to buy in 2009 so it's pointless and

B) RH has never released the NT entry figures and daily results for June to December 2009 as this awas beta test only so I have nothing to trade match against, so it would be mostly speculative. But.........I May have a go at trying a few top variants backtested for June / July / August 2009 to see what they might have got vs VNT's legendry results no one can confirm or was able to trade.

M

p.s. You will be suprised how well VNT did Jan to May 2010 compared to now, something has deff changed from June 2010 onwards in how cable behaves during the VNT timeslot.

Last edited by mark120169; Sep 6, 2010 at 9:12pm.
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Old Sep 6, 2010, 9:03pm   #35
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Ok.

RH Trade matched update time. One left handed trade this week when RH suddenly decided it was ok to trade a Bank Holiday despite always saying not too for previous ones on 2010.

So i've had to include any extra pips that would have given variants too although I don't think anyone traded them last monday?

Also big changes this week with the addition of the variants back test results and combined backtest / live trade results covering Jan to May 2010 and Jan to Sept TD.

Wont go to much into positions etc except as i'm sure lots of chatter and discussion will appear once peeps have studied and digested the results.

Instant trades were given special attention and I rechecked all May 2010 results with Forex Tester and picked up a few errors between 17th and 31st May so those have been adjusted. One thing to say on instant trades, and that is VNT no trigger days.

Between Jan and May 2010 there were 13 of these and 11 resulted in INT max loss -30 pips.

But between June and Sept TD there have only been 4 of these and none in June at all, which will help explain INT's overall results. But this can be discussed further with various inputs becasue there was obviously a reason RH put in his 2 pip + spread safety stop feature.

Overall last week VNT gained +36 pips and all higher limit variants matched it, but again lower limit variants did well especially 20 & 25 limit ones both gaining over 50 pips.

INT continued it's good run again being the biggest Banker with +85 pips. With the errors in late May corrected INT has also regained the total pips crown for 16 weeks with +486.5 pips but is not the overall 2010 leader to date, who is it?................. read and see.

Have fun studying everyone and let the discussions begin!

Mark

p.s. A thankyou always goes a long way
Attached Files
File Type: xls Net Trap Variant Results 170510 to 30910.xls (152.5 KB, 318 views)
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Old Sep 6, 2010, 11:23pm   #36
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Mark,

Thank you very very much, this is pretty rocking stuff. There's a lot to think over here with these results.

Will hopefully contribute some thoughts later this week.

I've also been working on an advanced MM for HNT40 that produced 40% extra profit on the results going back to mid-May.

Will post this up later this week also.

RT
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Old Sep 7, 2010, 6:51pm   #37
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Mark, many thanks for the extensive backtesting, great work.

Good to see that INT is still top dog when all results are scaled back to 2% :-)

INT is just about making my minimum average target of 100 pips per month, since the beginning of the year. So there's still work to be done, and I'm convinced that INT can be tweaked further to improve the pip count. More on this to follow...
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Old Sep 7, 2010, 8:15pm   #38
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by goldfinger777 View Post
Mark, many thanks for the extensive backtesting, great work.

Good to see that INT is still top dog when all results are scaled back to 2% :-)

INT is just about making my minimum average target of 100 pips per month, since the beginning of the year. So there's still work to be done, and I'm convinced that INT can be tweaked further to improve the pip count. More on this to follow...
What INT (and NT) needs is a secondary indicator daily to confirm trade direction, I am now looking backwards daily comparing other indicators (longer MA's etc) to see if a pattern can be found daily on losing and winning trades.

I.E. MA85 does it mostly agree (below it sell, above it buy) with NT MA40 daily? And if not does it mostly disagree on losing trades?

If you could find a secondary indicator that for 2010 always agreed with VNT MA40 on winning trades but disagreed 60-70% of the time on losing trades you could either,

A) Take the decision to only enter trades where the MA40 and secondary indicator agree, this should return a higher % of winning trades based on backtest data for 2010 by keeping you out of 60-70% of losing trades.

or

B) Be really brave and if the secondary indicator had a higher % rate of indicating winning trades during VNT time you could bet against NT direction if the secondary indicator showed a trade in the opposite direction.

It's very easy to plot different indicators on Forex tester and tab and scroll daily to see what the MA 60, MA85, MA100, EMA100, MA150 say for direction vs the MA40.

A pattern may apprear especially on losing trades where the MA40 and "other " MA disageed.

Any logic to this?

M
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Old Sep 8, 2010, 12:20pm   #39
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Wow - amazing results there Mark. Makes my spreadsheet look shabby. Well done.
SC
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Old Sep 8, 2010, 5:38pm   #40
Joined Apr 2008
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

This has finally convinced me that TNT is the way forward, in what form though?
I bet 5% each day, do I use 2 NTs, 3, 4?

Lots to think over.
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Old Sep 8, 2010, 5:51pm   #41
Joined Jun 2010
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Thanks for these sheets Mark...incredibly helpful.

It's interesting to see how HNT has really outperformed since May, but Jan-May, was fairly low. This goes to show how the market can change, and how trading rules need to be flexible. This has confirmed to me that my strategy of putting on 3 trades is appropriate, as MNT, HNT and NT40 all very very different risk and reward profiles. Hence, should the market change again, hopefully my trades will capitalise. VNT clearly has underperformed over the last 3 months.
I will be switching to NT40/45 based on your analysis ; only 5 points lower as a limit and a better win rate.
Once again, brilliant data gathering, without which all of this hypothesising would not have been possible.
You mentioned the more extreme variant..NT 100 etc. Are these in yet?
Dax
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 10:33am   #42
Joined Aug 2010
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by mark120169 View Post
Ok.

RH Trade matched update time. One left handed trade this week when RH suddenly decided it was ok to trade a Bank Holiday despite always saying not too for previous ones on 2010.

So i've had to include any extra pips that would have given variants too although I don't think anyone traded them last monday?

Also big changes this week with the addition of the variants back test results and combined backtest / live trade results covering Jan to May 2010 and Jan to Sept TD.

Wont go to much into positions etc except as i'm sure lots of chatter and discussion will appear once peeps have studied and digested the results.

Instant trades were given special attention and I rechecked all May 2010 results with Forex Tester and picked up a few errors between 17th and 31st May so those have been adjusted. One thing to say on instant trades, and that is VNT no trigger days.

Between Jan and May 2010 there were 13 of these and 11 resulted in INT max loss -30 pips.

But between June and Sept TD there have only been 4 of these and none in June at all, which will help explain INT's overall results. But this can be discussed further with various inputs becasue there was obviously a reason RH put in his 2 pip + spread safety stop feature.

Overall last week VNT gained +36 pips and all higher limit variants matched it, but again lower limit variants did well especially 20 & 25 limit ones both gaining over 50 pips.

INT continued it's good run again being the biggest Banker with +85 pips. With the errors in late May corrected INT has also regained the total pips crown for 16 weeks with +486.5 pips but is not the overall 2010 leader to date, who is it?................. read and see.

Have fun studying everyone and let the discussions begin!

Mark

p.s. A thankyou always goes a long way
Mark

Amazing what you have done here and the time and effort you must have put in to correlate all this. As a relative newbie to the system can't make any deep and meaningful comments yet until I've studied a lot more, but using the variants on the forum that I have so far, have proved far more fruitful than vnt straight, for that guys I am very grateful - cheers

Mark: thumbsup:
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 11:29am   #43
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Mark, many many thanks for your hard work in getting all this data in one place, I owe you a beer ( or three!) thanks again fella
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 3:37pm   #44
Joined May 2008
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Quote:
Originally Posted by stricky1967 View Post
Mark, many many thanks for your hard work in getting all this data in one place, I owe you a beer ( or three!) thanks again fella
Mark

As a newcomer to the forum, can I also add my thanks for all your effort - the data is great. Now I need to spend some time looking at it to decide if I am going to use any variant to the basic system.

Gordon
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Old Sep 10, 2010, 4:43pm   #45
Joined Apr 2008
Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

ok all,

I've come up with a unique MM system for HNT which i've backtested over the course of the year.
This method has produced 28.6% more £ profit than using a standard 2% of bank method.

The system works like this, it's quite aggressive and compounds a lot.

Let's say you start out with a bank of £1000, at 2% of bank you will be using 50p a pip.
Now, day 1 you win, you have a profit at £12.50.
With normal MM you would then put a bet on of 51p (£1012.5 *2% /40 pips)
With RT's Turbo MM (copyright, don't make my lawyers come and kick your back door in)
you would actually work out the next days stake like so
2% of £1012.50 + half of yesterdays profit: £20.25 + £6.25 = 66p per pip stake

If it goes +25 you have £16.50 profit, if it loses you have lost £26.40.

If it wins you follow the same calculation as before for the next day, if it loses then the next day you go back to a flat 2% of bank.

So when you have large strings of winners (which you do with this HNT) it aggressively compounds your money producing bigger and bigger winners.

If you hit a string of losers then it automatically drops back to a safe 2% of bank and you will experience a normal drawdown.

What is the danger here?
The danger here is that you encounter a lot of WLWLWLWLWL, this will create a bigger drawdown than standard.


I'm currently using this system myself (but I only started using HNT myself this week).
I've checked this out on VNT, it does not work and will kill your bank, mainly because VNT constantly does WLWLWLWLWL. Where as HNT seems to go through streaks which suits this method.

I've backtested this method on Mark's figures (thanks once again) from 1st Jan up to 3rd September

Starting with a bank of £1000 on standard 2% of bank MM you would have banked a total of 686.3 points and your bank would be worth £1395.23

Starting with a bank of £1000 on RTís Turbo MM © you would have banked the same 686.3 points but your bank would be worth £1508.37

Thatís 28.6% more profit!


I will say this again, this method is not without dangers, a WLWLWLWLWL, will see you lose more. This is an aggressive system.

I have attached a spreadsheet which has the formulas, itís not very pretty and may take you awhile to understand I am happy to answer questions, if someone does understand it and can make a tidier spreadsheet then please do.

On the second sheet you will find a cumulative profit comparison which will show you far ahead or behind RTís Turbo MM © is of standard MM.


This idea is not original, Iíve been doing a lot of searching round the net on MM to see if I can come up with something better for VNT, which Iím failing with, and came across a similar system to this.

The full name of this system is Rugby Traderís Turbo Lightning Profit Butterfly Catcher Money Mangement Super Dooper System ©
My lawyers are watching you!

Let me know what your thoughts are on this?
Attached Files
File Type: xls MM HNT 40.xls (144.5 KB, 199 views)
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