Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

This is a discussion on Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10 within the Forex Net Trap forums, part of the T2W Archive category; Originally Posted by me1234 Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere (I'm sure it has), but have been going over ...

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Old Aug 1, 2010, 7:41pm   #16
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by me1234 View Post
Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere (I'm sure it has), but have been going over your results Mark (nothing like staking 5 quid a pip to concentrate yer mind)and it looks like the factor that has the most impact is increasing the SL, whereas reducing the limit can have the opposite effect. Seems odd that RH wouldn't have picked up on the same, or is it due to different market conditions that increasing the SL is working so well?
Yes true. small SL has always been an issue on cable breakout systems based on the london open which I have read actually starts @ 6am.

Lots of whipsaws happening which take out stops happily. But also VNT was probably backtested for 2008 and 2009, whith Q3 , Q4 2009 showing a good run of BT / paper trades / live testers results results for RH before it was published.

It was not out for sale until Dec 2009, hence all the "great" 2009 results where never traded by customers. Check out Petes new Historic results thread to see almost a 400 pip difference detween June 2009 results and June 2010.

2010 is a much, much more volitile market for Cable, Euro and FTSE which all effect the direct VNT trades take.

But you are also right that the lower limit is not so good without at least the VNT stop, making it poor RR ratio, or a bigger stop. But in the current market conditions it's the combination of both that is banking the pips becasue the large 30 pips of more whips are still very regular (and stopping VNT out to often) but also where VNT does get it right the market often runs out of steam between 26 and 29 pips before reversing. Hence NT30/30 is no where near as good results as HNT40, gets stopped out lots more and banks a lot less.

At some point in the future VNT or NT40 , NT33S will take the lead over smaller target variants, but the market will need to be more predicable with less large whipsaws before this will happen, and with the UK , USA and Euro all struggling to paste over their messed up economies I think the 2009 period of NT when it was all under wraps to the markets is a long way off yet.

M

Last edited by mark120169; Aug 1, 2010 at 7:59pm.
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Old Aug 2, 2010, 8:27pm   #17
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Ok RH trade match variant results summary up to 30/7/10 attached. Slightly higher than "pre budget" results friday because RH fiddled his reults again, so I have to match too despite it making my results look better than they should be (or worse for the 15 limit and under variants that have been robbed of a days pips )

I will add a summary later but HNT40 is still the top performer with +300 pips for 11 weeks and +353 pips for June and July 2010 only.

This is compared to VNT @ +57 for 11 weeks and +80 for June and July 2010.

I apologise if this seems like cheating but to keep trade matched results I have to only compare like for like trade days.

I kinda feel guilty for my forced fiddling making some variants look better than others. Sorry.

Hey ho.....we are still pissing all over VNT's parade.

Like i say , look at the results and make your own trading decisions. I have and it aint VNT!


M
Attached Files
File Type: xls Net Trap Variant Results 170510 to 300710.xls (76.0 KB, 248 views)

Last edited by mark120169; Aug 3, 2010 at 3:56pm.
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Old Aug 9, 2010, 5:22pm   #18
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Here we are, RH trade match variant results summary up to 06/8/10 attached.

In a rare week VNT actually gained a little bit of ground on the variants for the last 12 weeks. It had to happen! However yet again Wed 4th was another day VNT should have taken a -30 bullet (and larger limit -40 stop variants with it) but was declared a no trade day by RH as NT+H trade!

Mixed feelings as this has also massaged SNT, HNT and NT40 results better than they should have been along with VNT, but also peeved because LNT, MNT and Instant would have banked their pips so have been robbed of a days takings.

But to keep apples for apples I have to trade match variant results.

Like i say , look at the results and make your own trading decisions. VNT is still seriously lagging having moved up to 11th of 15 from last weeks 12th of 15 for 12 weeks of data.

M
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File Type: xls Net Trap Variant Results 170510 to 060810.xls (78.0 KB, 331 views)
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Old Aug 9, 2010, 5:53pm   #19
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Mark, thank you for hard work, this is very interesting. May I make a couple of points, as I have "studied" Nettrap between Jan to May before . ( you can downloard this excel sheet at the public forum, if you like to)
I want to make sense how NetTrap would possibly works (within my understanding..)

I have pick up some results from between Jan to May (439 pips)

Details: (I will ignore less than 30 pips)

-30 pips 18 times

30 -39 pips 7 times
40-49 pips 3 times.
50 pips 11 times

21 win and 18 lost, this isn't so great, isn't it ? but still made over 400 pips ! Because of R:R, I think.

My concern is that you might over-optimise NetTrap for a last couple of months (increasing stop to 40 etc) Although your magic number of stop 33 pips are so tempting, I still think R:R should be at least equal.

Morning breakout strategy seems rather common strategies but people recommand R:R is at least same.
eg. http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/

This most interesting discovery from your work for me is instant Nettrap - this is amazing but please please change to R:R to 25:25, if possible. ( you have got another 25 pips today ?)

Thanks

P.S. I wonder if someone make a back testing for, say, at least last 6-12 months.
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Old Aug 9, 2010, 6:50pm   #20
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by toshi View Post
Mark, thank you for hard work, this is very interesting. May I make a couple of points, as I have "studied" Nettrap between Jan to May before . ( you can downloard this excel sheet at the public forum, if you like to)
I want to make sense how NetTrap would possibly works (within my understanding..)

I have pick up some results from between Jan to May (439 pips)

Details: (I will ignore less than 30 pips)

-30 pips 18 times

30 -39 pips 7 times
40-49 pips 3 times.
50 pips 11 times

21 win and 18 lost, this isn't so great, isn't it ? but still made over 400 pips ! Because of R:R, I think.

My concern is that you might over-optimise NetTrap for a last couple of months (increasing stop to 40 etc) Although your magic number of stop 33 pips are so tempting, I still think R:R should be at least equal.

Morning breakout strategy seems rather common strategies but people recommand R:R is at least same.
eg. http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/

This most interesting discovery from your work for me is instant Nettrap - this is amazing but please please change to R:R to 25:25, if possible. ( you have got another 25 pips today ?)

Thanks

P.S. I wonder if someone make a back testing for, say, at least last 6-12 months.
You have to take into consideration what can happen using a 40 stop. I assume you are thinking that a VNT -30 now = a varaint -40 ? This is sometimes the case, but look at the spreadsheet carefully like Mike D has and you will notice something. Compare NT40 for example. Still has a positive RR , max win 50, max loss 40. So slightly better than 1 to 1.

This "thing" is the massive difference it makes when becasue of whipsaws VNT takes a -30 and NT40 does not get stopped out and banks in positive territory.

Look at the data line for 17/6/10. VNT -30 vs NT40 +20 (+19.9 exact) . This is a whopping +50 pips NT40 gains over VNT for one day! So now lets look at all the days this has happened in the last 12 weeks.

2/6/10.......VNT -30 vs NT40 +1 .......difference +31

7/6/10.......VNT -30 vs NT40 +9 .......difference +39

10/7/10......VNT -30 vs NT40 -10.7....difference +19.3

17/6/10......VNT -30 vs NT40 +19.9...difference +49.9

14/7/10......VNT -30 vs NT40 -9.......difference +21

15/7/10......VNT -30 vs NT40 -12......differnce +18

This is not including a few other -30 days scratched off by RH NT+H that also gave NT40 an advantage. This is a difference of +178.2 pips over 12 weeks. Now lets look at the -30 days vs the -40 days for the same period.

19/5/10 NT40 -40 (-10)

26/5/10 NT40 -40 (-10)

23/6/10 NT40 -40 (-10)

24/6/10 NT40 -40 (-10)

3/8/10 NT40 -40 (-10)

So that's a extra -50 pips NT40 took over VNT for 12 weeks. The total net effect is still a whopping +128.2 pips that NT40 has over VNT for 12 weeks.

Maybe in time the super optimised HNT40 will slip back compared VNT or NT40. Who knows? But we shall see come December when we have 6 months of forward traded variant data.

What this data is is how the market is acting now, in 2010 and it will change slightly monthly or weekly, but always a picture will be clear of some direction to trade with SL & TP with the FNT system.

M
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Old Aug 9, 2010, 7:43pm   #21
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Yes, yes, I know you mean, just as if big traders start to warm up to hit NetTrap stop then start games. yes, 50:40 might be a good idea.

There are other parameters as well, which date of the week would be a bad results etc ?
Anyway, Thanks to your contribution, we are able to see the big picture now.
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Old Aug 13, 2010, 9:06am   #22
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Ok.

A quick pre budget variant vs VNT report. Difficult to see where RH can take his left handed trade this week with three VNT -30 (-90 pips, ouch!). My money is on Mondays MA -2 being indecisive smashing his all time 1.5 pips clear indecisive record. We shall see Monday.

But so far for the First two weeks of August VNT is running at about -35 pips.

Top variants are :

MINT +30

NT40 +5


It's great to see one of my TNT recommended products sitting @ +5 in a difficult month. That's around +40 over VNT if you had taken my advice and traded NT40 in August rather than VNT. Even scaled to 2% MM this is +30 over VNT result.

HNT40 is running @ - 39 sor far, so pretty much tracking VNT.


Bottom variants are :

SNT33 - 88

HNT33 -78 (sorry guys, I did suggest HNT40 with scaled position @ 75%)

Official variant results Monday evening. Like I say look at the results and make your own trading decisons.

Have a good weekend all.

Mark

Last edited by mark120169; Aug 13, 2010 at 10:12am.
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 6:34pm   #23
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Hello bit busy so will post this quickly then edit a few more comments and explanations later, cross checking noticed some pips allocation errors in some variants favour whilst adding NT40/45 and creating NT U /U (unpublished this one.) These are highlighted in light turquoise. Will explain later.

RH took back some VNT credibility this week taking a -98 on the chin and missing out on a +50 that should have been a trade (IMHO I did!)

Still as usual all variants trade matched to VNT RH results so one days winning for all scratched. But this does not bode well for VNT 13 week and June/ July / August results, now both in negative territiory so might explain why we have 100 members now with 16 waiting to join!

Only one variant made profit last week, MINT. All others took a hit but none as bad as VNT -98 pips.

HNT40 is still top dog but Phil8 NT40/45 is new and doing very well, better than NT40 and is now in the spreadsheet.

VNT 13 weeks -31 pips

VNT June / July / Aug TD -8 pips

Top Variant same period :


HNT40 13 weeks +257.3 pips

HNT40 June / July / Aug TD +309.3 pips.



M
Attached Files
File Type: xls Net Trap Variant Results 170510 to 130810.xls (81.0 KB, 242 views)

Last edited by mark120169; Aug 16, 2010 at 6:44pm.
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Old Aug 17, 2010, 6:44am   #24
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by mark120169 View Post
Only one variant made profit last week, MINT. All others took a hit but none as bad as VNT -98 pips.

HNT40 is still top dog but Phil8 NT40/45 is new and doing very well, better than NT40 and is now in the spreadsheet.

VNT 13 weeks -31 pips

VNT June / July / Aug TD -8 pips

Top Variant same period :


HNT40 13 weeks +257.3 pips

HNT40 June / July / Aug TD +309.3 pips.

M
Mark I just want to check that I'm reading the spreadsheet correctly - are those figures at the bottom the cumulative results for the period 17/05 to 13/08? If so, looking at the "scaled to 2% MM" results, INT is still top dog overall. But with only 206.5 pts since May it's still way below my minimum expectation of 100 pts a month average.

I hope I'm reading the results incorrectly?! Please tell me I'm wrong and that some of the variants actually got more than 400 pts cumulative for the period 17/05 to 13/08, scaled to 2%MM?
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Old Aug 17, 2010, 6:56am   #25
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by goldfinger777 View Post
Mark I just want to check that I'm reading the spreadsheet correctly - are those figures at the bottom the cumulative results for the period 17/05 to 13/08? If so, looking at the "scaled to 2% MM" results, INT is still top dog overall. But with only 206.5 pts since May it's still way below my minimum expectation of 100 pts a month average.

I hope I'm reading the results incorrectly?! Please tell me I'm wrong and that some of the variants actually got more than 400 pts cumulative for the period 17/05 to 13/08, scaled to 2%MM?
No you are correct. Scaled to 2% MM INT is top (as it runs 30 stop) so as a like for like results trade HNT40 is best triggrt variant @ +193 scaled.

That's it unfortunately for 13 weeks. Back end of May was a tough time for all and August so far is proving equally as tough.

Also HNT40 live is above INT now as yesterday was no trigger day but INT has to go in and took a -30, so INT now sits @ +176.5.

M
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Old Aug 23, 2010, 7:45pm   #26
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Official matched variants results time. No funny business by RH this week so will qiuckly talk about August T/D results and June / July /August TD results.

Top performer overall for last 14 weeks is HNT40 still. It is sitting on +287 pips vs VNT on +16 pips. Something seems to have changed In June onwards that seems to not suit VNT so well. Maybe the Summer season which is strange because these were the advertised big VNT hitters in 2009.

For June , July and August to date HNT40 is sitting on +300 pips more than VNT! Yes that's correct. VNT as of last week is officially on +39 pips for this period, HNT40 is on +339.3 pips. So VNT has given away 300 pips to something with a poor RR ratio. It seems the way Cable is working at present it likes to whipsaw more than 30 pips and only regularly moves 25-29 pips in our favour before retracing, as these results bare out.

This will not last forever but is certainly the trend for now.

Top August TD performers

1st MINT +30
2nd MNT +20
3rd MNT33S +17
4th NT40 & NT40/45 Joint -11
5th INT -14

7th HNT40 -37

8th VNT -41


For August both NT40 and NT40/45 seem quite good performers @ -11 pips as this August has seemed a bitch of a Month to trade in.


M
Attached Files
File Type: xls Net Trap Variant Results 170510 to 200810.xls (93.0 KB, 211 views)

Last edited by mark120169; Aug 23, 2010 at 9:05pm.
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Old Aug 29, 2010, 9:11am   #27
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Originally Posted by mark120169 View Post
Official matched variants results time. No funny business by RH this week so will qiuckly talk about August T/D results and June / July /August TD results.

Top performer overall for last 14 weeks is HNT40 still. It is sitting on +287 pips vs VNT on +16 pips. Something seems to have changed In June onwards that seems to not suit VNT so well. Maybe the Summer season which is strange because these were the advertised big VNT hitters in 2009.

For June , July and August to date HNT40 is sitting on +300 pips more than VNT! Yes that's correct. VNT as of last week is officially on +39 pips for this period, HNT40 is on +339.3 pips. So VNT has given away 300 pips to something with a poor RR ratio. It seems the way Cable is working at present it likes to whipsaw more than 30 pips and only regularly moves 25-29 pips in our favour before retracing, as these results bare out.

This will not last forever but is certainly the trend for now.

Top August TD performers

1st MINT +30
2nd MNT +20
3rd MNT33S +17
4th NT40 & NT40/45 Joint -11
5th INT -14

7th HNT40 -37

8th VNT -41


For August both NT40 and NT40/45 seem quite good performers @ -11 pips as this August has seemed a bitch of a Month to trade in.


M
Mark I've been splitting my stake 50:50 between NT40 and HNT40, but according to your figures I'd be better off long term (for now) sticking it all on HNT40.

cheers

Last edited by me1234; Aug 29, 2010 at 9:11am. Reason: spelling
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Old Aug 29, 2010, 10:32am   #28
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

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Mark I've been splitting my stake 50:50 between NT40 and HNT40, but according to your figures I'd be better off long term (for now) sticking it all on HNT40.

cheers
True. HNT40 is somewhere around +75 for August after last week, NT40 is around +56.

HNT40 is the the best over 15 weeks and with +399 pips and is even higher than that for June/ July August. Although we still have 1 trading day left in August.

M
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Old Aug 29, 2010, 1:56pm   #29
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

Anyone know if its poss to access IG charts (pref quick ones not advanced) so that they go back further than the last 3 weeks?

Last edited by sarnia cherie; Aug 29, 2010 at 3:11pm.
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Old Aug 30, 2010, 6:58pm   #30
 
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Re: Net Trap Variant live results from 17/05/10

mark120169 started this thread Ok. Variant RH trade matched results time. Nothing much to reoprt from the RH VNT, just a few pips more than expected which has also help variants too.

Big news is 25 limit variants had a huge week, with HNT40 & HNT33S banking +118 pips and INT banking a full house with +125 pips.

This now means than HNT40 is the first to break the 400 pip limit @ 15 weeks with +405 pips. INT is tops for 2% MM with 347 pips for 15 weeks.

For 3 month results HNT40 is just tops for pure pips, @ +457 , thats an average of 152 p/m and 35 a week. INT is aclose second with +447 pips but is much better mm% wise as it only runs 2% vs HNT40 2.67%.

Unless tomorrow is a no trade there is still this one day left for full August and summer results.

VNT still lagging. As I always say look at the results and make you own trading decisions.

M

Edit. As Monday was BH No Trade and today (tuesday 31/8/10) was no trade these figures should be final for August. But wont close off yet in case RH pulls a left hand trade today for MA under 1 for +50 pips on VNT's tally (And I would not be suprised if this happend. )
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Last edited by mark120169; Aug 31, 2010 at 9:20am.
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