Day Trading & Forex Forum

TheBramble

Although I'm a relative newbie to FX, I've been having some success recently, especially with JPY.

The thing is, as a tyro price & volume merchant, I'm a little lost in the volume-less world of FX.

I use tick-pressure as a proxy for volume, but even so, I'm not (yet) convinced it is a valid proxy.

Long story short - my view is that JPY is making a new Bull trend in GBP and EUR (perhaps less so in USD).

Anyone willing/able to confirm my view or explain why it isn't?

darktone

what sort of time frame did you have in mind for this new bull trend T?

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You are not in the markets to make money but to preserve your capital. As a result of your excellent job, the market will compensate you!
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TheBramble

Do you mean when starting or how long duration?

I'm taking the view it's already in place otherwise I wouldn't be noticing it. On all timeframes it has a positive trend (perhaps flatter on the Daily) and is beginning to take out previous Resistance and turn it into Support (196.50 on GBP/JPY for instance).

The thing is, I don't want to be reading what isn't there and using tick-pressure for something it isn't - if you get my drift.

In looking at EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY - for them all to be exhibiting this behaviour indicates weakening Yen (obviously) and/or strengthening of EUR, GBP and USD.

But with the Dollar strengthening against the Pound and the Euro, and the Pound strengthening against the Euro - with all these somewhat counter-balancing movements in the other 3 currencies, for all of them to be relatively strengthening against YEN indicates a very weak Yen. Hence a good position for Longs against other currencies at present?

Am I reading this correctly?

darktone

To be honest i treat each pair as its own to avoid indecision, I dont have time to do any charts at the moment but if your looking for bull trend in £Y and EY your may be a little late to the table, Both are at critical points in the larger time frames (tucked under resistance) as is E$ with its weekly trend violated.
Sorry ive got no opinion on tick, anything smaller than 30min gets my EC going the wrong way

edit: eres a quick one

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__________________
You are not in the markets to make money but to preserve your capital. As a result of your excellent job, the market will compensate you!
Gl all . DT has quietly left the building...

GammaJammer

Tony,

One thing that may help you is that USD/JPY has broken pretty decent trend support in the last couple of days. Goes back to April. Easy to see on a daily chart.

TheBramble

GJ - I can't see that. Can you explain please?

GammaJammer

Oops - read your first post wrong - thought you were turning JPY bullish. In that case, I'd have to say longer term the break of trend support I pointed out may still be important, but it just means I disagree with you.

Apologies for the confusion.

GJ

GammaJammer

But having said that oil is still powering ahead