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Old Jun 12, 2018, 6:39am   #286
 
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KTM Brent Weekly: Minor consolidation likely, but remains bearish

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Broken rising trendline
  • Corrective ABC structure in progress
  • 100MAs are in focus if 50MA off

With Brent oil holding the 50MA last week the price has shifted the action from bearish to a consolidation phase. Traders are focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22. ” crude production in May slid for the fourth straight month to 31.90 million b/d, the lowest in over a year”, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey of industry officials, analysts, and shipping data.

As shown on the below chart, the price has been trading in the falling channel with lower lows and lower highs pattern formation. Intraday trading resistance dropped to 77.40$ from 79.10$, flips side support has crawled to 74.80$ its 50MA from 74.50$.

A break below $ 75.00 could lead to further adjustments to $74.00 and $ 73.50 initially. The broken rising trendline indicating the Brent oil has additional downside risk. The corrective A-B-C structure on the H4 and Daily charts are pointing to 73.00$ and 71.40$ levels.

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Ahead of the OPEC meeting, supply zone spread between 78.10$-79.10$ with solid support at 71.50-70.50$ its 100MA exists.

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Old Jun 13, 2018, 5:42am   #287
 
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KTM FX Daily: FOMC preview and USDX technical overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The FOMC meeting outcome is widely expected to hike by 25bps to 1.75%-2.00% in June 12-13 meeting. June Fed hike will leave RBNZ behind with 1.75%. Last month, the Bank held the OCR at 1.75 percent and retained the view that monetary policy would remain accommodative for a considerable period.

RBA at its meeting last week, leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.

Will FOMC projections signal four hikes?

As we pointed in our earlier article, we remain to our forecast, “expect four Fed hikes in 2018, but more confirmation will be available at the June meeting”. The dollar bullishness cast on the clues regarding further tightening later this year. Market participants are mainly watching on the dot plots (projections) which are available in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). After the appointment of new Chair Powell, the market is anticipating a hawkish bias.

Since March the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Due to higher oil price prices, we expect the committee could upgrade the inflation forecast in the coming year.

May FOMC statement revealed, “Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.” Incase of lowering the unemployment rate, in the long run, could add fuel to the hawks.

We have two scenarios for FOMC: The Fed forward’s guidance language is the key

Hawkish: Upgrade economic, and inflation forecast are indicating more scope to rate hikes further. Currently, the street is expecting a hike in June and again in September. We believe December hike clue could be the trigger for the dollar bulls. A modest hawkish reaction could expect if four hikes projected in 2018. If dot plots are moved higher in 2019-2020, and the longer term could read as hawkish. Lack of an extra mile factor pressured the dollar bulls. We expect the Fed will erase the sentence “The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.”

Neutral: If the dot-plot chart lacks an uptick in 2018 and no forward guidance means “slow and steady.” No macro outlook change could divide the Fed watchers (Dovish). Since March the policy bias remains unchanged. The “bitmap” median forecast shows that the Fed will raise interest rates three times in 2018.

The tradable dollar index (KTM: USDX) trading range likely to remain between 94.40-93.20 levels. Before retraced to 93.18 (June 07 low) the index traced out a double top at 95.00 between Nov 2017 and May 2018. The near-term trend remains in a tight range whereas a move above 95.00 needed to forecast 95.40 and 96.25 levels in the medium term. Flip side breaks below 93.00 could open further retracement to 92.40 levels.

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What is your Technical View?

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Old Jun 14, 2018, 8:59am   #288
 
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KTM FX Daily: EURUSD outlook

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD popped from 1.1725 to 1.1790 after the Fed rate hike and extended the gains on Thursday’s early European session. Twice we tried to breach the mid-May high’s 1.1850 and failed, well above 1.1850 could open to 1.1900-1.1920 levels and on an extreme case, 1.1990 could even possible. Probably we are going to trade between 1.1790-1.1850 before ECB. The daily studies RSI and oscillator are remaining bullish.

Supports are at 1.1780 and 1.1725 levels. A break should expose to 1.1620-1.1590 levels. Our baseline assumption remains that Q2 trading range remains between 1.1450-1.2000 levels.

The further return of USD weakness, which should allow EUR to perform better continuation from the last week with resistance seems at 1.20 in the coming days.

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Happy volatile day!

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Old Jun 15, 2018, 8:36am   #289
 
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KTM commentary: FX, commodity and Crypto overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD: We still believe the major likely to remain between 1.1450-1.2000in Q2. After a relentless euro selling, we downgrade the resistance from 1.2000 to 1.1850.

GBPUSD: Traced out a double top at 1.3475. Potential support finds between 1.3070-1.3000 levels. The 50.0% fib reaction (entire 2017 rally) finds at 1.1450, and the 61.8% finds at 1.1180 levels.

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USDJPY: Tested and holding the support 110.00. Weekly resistance seems to be at 111.30 a close above this could open further rally to 112.90/113.20 levels.

USDCAD: Cruising above the 30-month descending trendline. The A-B-C structure is pointing to 1.3190 levels.

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AUDUSD: Before retraced to one week low, the cross was rejected at 100EA last and this week traced out with a triple top at 0.7626 levels. A move below May low could open to May and June 2017 low’s 0.7330 and 0.7370 respectively. Resistance moved down from 0.7670 to 0.7630.

NZDUSD: Traced out a multi-top at 0.7060 and shifting focus to the support zone finds between 0.6880-0.6850 levels. Between 0.6860-0.6780 the cross has potential support to pause the downfall.

Brent: Remains in the falling channel. On the downside 75.00 is pivotal below this, 74.50 and 73.75 exists. Traders are focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22. The broken rising trendline indicating the Brent oil has additional downside risk. The corrective A-B-C structure on the H4 and Daily charts are pointing to 73.00$ and 71.40$ levels.

Gold: Elevated the support from 1282.00$ to 1289.00$, but remains in the range between 1308.00$-1289.00$. Thrice we tried to breach the mid-May’s high 1308.00$ but failed, well above 1320.00 is an open target.

Bitcoin: The famous crypto currently fell as much as 6066$. It has a parallel support zone finds between 5630$ mid-Nov 2017 low and 5955$early Feb low.

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Old Yesterday, 11:55pm   #290
 
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KTM FX Weekly: Global economic calendar (June 11-15). Chart of the week- GBPCHF

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Bank of England policy is expected to hold the interest rates
  • ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, Portugal, 18-20 June
  • Data wise NZ GDP and EZ PMIs are in focus
  • OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22

A dovish ECB send the euro and bund yields lower, flip side hawkish Fed failed to produce a bullish break to the tradable dollar index (KTM: USDX) and the US 10TY well anchored below 3.00%. On Friday NY trade commodities were banged as the volatility back to the diver seat. Trade concerns between US and China are back to the center stage again, and we expect it will remain the key driver over the coming weeks.

Overall, EURUSD lost 1.50% and the dollar index (USDX) rose 1.60% in the past week.

Economic events:

In this week, NZ GDP, EZ PMIs, and Canada inflation are the key risk economic events lined up accompanied by G10 central bank meetings, SNB Monetary Policy meeting and BOE Monetary policy summary. Addition to these, we have BOJ and RBA minutes scheduled (Wed).

In Europe, following last week’s ECB dovish meeting, traders remain focus to the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, Portugal, 18-20 June and EZ PMIs.

NZ Q1 GDP: We expect the near-term growth to remain quiet. Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.5% tad below Q4 2017 of 0.6% led by Service industries grow 1.0%.

The economy expanded 0.6 percent in the December 2017 quarter, the second quarter in a row it rose 0.6 percent, according to Stats NZ. The better than expected economy health reading could boost the kiwi dollar above 0.7000.

OPEC meeting: Brent oil continued to retrace last week lost 4.50%. We expect Russia and Saudi Arabia will be titled of production increases. The price reached its A-B-C corrective pattern target whereas we still believe further retracement to 71.70$ and 70.70$ levels.


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Monetary Policy outcomes:

Thu, Bank of England (GBP): The BOE is expected to hold the interest rates unchanged. We are more focusing on the August meeting.

Thu, SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF): The SNB is likely to hold the interest rates. Following ECB’s dovish meeting we expect the SNB will deliver neutral to dovish communication.

Chart of the week: GBPCHF

Since early June the cross has been locked between 1.3270 and 1.3120. The daily studies RSI and oscillator are remaining bullish helped the cross to settle above 20MA for the first time since April. A bullish break above the range could open to 1.3330 initially above this, 1.3450 and 1.3490 are the open targets with supports at 1.3120 and 1.3050. The flip side, any break below 1.3050 could open towards 1.3000, 1.2920 and 1.2850 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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