Key To Markets - Discussions

This is a discussion on Key To Markets - Discussions within the Forex Brokers forums, part of the Commercial category; Broken rising trendline Corrective ABC structure in progress 100MAs are in focus if 50MA off With Brent oil holding the ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Jun 12, 2018, 6:39am   #286
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM Brent Weekly: Minor consolidation likely, but remains bearish

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Broken rising trendline
  • Corrective ABC structure in progress
  • 100MAs are in focus if 50MA off

With Brent oil holding the 50MA last week the price has shifted the action from bearish to a consolidation phase. Traders are focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22. ” crude production in May slid for the fourth straight month to 31.90 million b/d, the lowest in over a year”, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey of industry officials, analysts, and shipping data.

As shown on the below chart, the price has been trading in the falling channel with lower lows and lower highs pattern formation. Intraday trading resistance dropped to 77.40$ from 79.10$, flips side support has crawled to 74.80$ its 50MA from 74.50$.

A break below $ 75.00 could lead to further adjustments to $74.00 and $ 73.50 initially. The broken rising trendline indicating the Brent oil has additional downside risk. The corrective A-B-C structure on the H4 and Daily charts are pointing to 73.00$ and 71.40$ levels.

Click the image to open in full size.
Ahead of the OPEC meeting, supply zone spread between 78.10$-79.10$ with solid support at 71.50-70.50$ its 100MA exists.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Jun 13, 2018, 5:42am   #287
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM FX Daily: FOMC preview and USDX technical overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The FOMC meeting outcome is widely expected to hike by 25bps to 1.75%-2.00% in June 12-13 meeting. June Fed hike will leave RBNZ behind with 1.75%. Last month, the Bank held the OCR at 1.75 percent and retained the view that monetary policy would remain accommodative for a considerable period.

RBA at its meeting last week, leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.

Will FOMC projections signal four hikes?

As we pointed in our earlier article, we remain to our forecast, “expect four Fed hikes in 2018, but more confirmation will be available at the June meeting”. The dollar bullishness cast on the clues regarding further tightening later this year. Market participants are mainly watching on the dot plots (projections) which are available in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). After the appointment of new Chair Powell, the market is anticipating a hawkish bias.

Since March the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Due to higher oil price prices, we expect the committee could upgrade the inflation forecast in the coming year.

May FOMC statement revealed, “Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.” Incase of lowering the unemployment rate, in the long run, could add fuel to the hawks.

We have two scenarios for FOMC: The Fed forward’s guidance language is the key

Hawkish: Upgrade economic, and inflation forecast are indicating more scope to rate hikes further. Currently, the street is expecting a hike in June and again in September. We believe December hike clue could be the trigger for the dollar bulls. A modest hawkish reaction could expect if four hikes projected in 2018. If dot plots are moved higher in 2019-2020, and the longer term could read as hawkish. Lack of an extra mile factor pressured the dollar bulls. We expect the Fed will erase the sentence “The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.”

Neutral: If the dot-plot chart lacks an uptick in 2018 and no forward guidance means “slow and steady.” No macro outlook change could divide the Fed watchers (Dovish). Since March the policy bias remains unchanged. The “bitmap” median forecast shows that the Fed will raise interest rates three times in 2018.

The tradable dollar index (KTM: USDX) trading range likely to remain between 94.40-93.20 levels. Before retraced to 93.18 (June 07 low) the index traced out a double top at 95.00 between Nov 2017 and May 2018. The near-term trend remains in a tight range whereas a move above 95.00 needed to forecast 95.40 and 96.25 levels in the medium term. Flip side breaks below 93.00 could open further retracement to 92.40 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Jun 14, 2018, 8:59am   #288
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM FX Daily: EURUSD outlook

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD popped from 1.1725 to 1.1790 after the Fed rate hike and extended the gains on Thursday’s early European session. Twice we tried to breach the mid-May high’s 1.1850 and failed, well above 1.1850 could open to 1.1900-1.1920 levels and on an extreme case, 1.1990 could even possible. Probably we are going to trade between 1.1790-1.1850 before ECB. The daily studies RSI and oscillator are remaining bullish.

Supports are at 1.1780 and 1.1725 levels. A break should expose to 1.1620-1.1590 levels. Our baseline assumption remains that Q2 trading range remains between 1.1450-1.2000 levels.

The further return of USD weakness, which should allow EUR to perform better continuation from the last week with resistance seems at 1.20 in the coming days.

Click the image to open in full size.

Happy volatile day!

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Jun 15, 2018, 8:36am   #289
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM commentary: FX, commodity and Crypto overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD: We still believe the major likely to remain between 1.1450-1.2000in Q2. After a relentless euro selling, we downgrade the resistance from 1.2000 to 1.1850.

GBPUSD: Traced out a double top at 1.3475. Potential support finds between 1.3070-1.3000 levels. The 50.0% fib reaction (entire 2017 rally) finds at 1.1450, and the 61.8% finds at 1.1180 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

USDJPY: Tested and holding the support 110.00. Weekly resistance seems to be at 111.30 a close above this could open further rally to 112.90/113.20 levels.

USDCAD: Cruising above the 30-month descending trendline. The A-B-C structure is pointing to 1.3190 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

AUDUSD: Before retraced to one week low, the cross was rejected at 100EA last and this week traced out with a triple top at 0.7626 levels. A move below May low could open to May and June 2017 low’s 0.7330 and 0.7370 respectively. Resistance moved down from 0.7670 to 0.7630.

NZDUSD: Traced out a multi-top at 0.7060 and shifting focus to the support zone finds between 0.6880-0.6850 levels. Between 0.6860-0.6780 the cross has potential support to pause the downfall.

Brent: Remains in the falling channel. On the downside 75.00 is pivotal below this, 74.50 and 73.75 exists. Traders are focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22. The broken rising trendline indicating the Brent oil has additional downside risk. The corrective A-B-C structure on the H4 and Daily charts are pointing to 73.00$ and 71.40$ levels.

Gold: Elevated the support from 1282.00$ to 1289.00$, but remains in the range between 1308.00$-1289.00$. Thrice we tried to breach the mid-May’s high 1308.00$ but failed, well above 1320.00 is an open target.

Bitcoin: The famous crypto currently fell as much as 6066$. It has a parallel support zone finds between 5630$ mid-Nov 2017 low and 5955$early Feb low.

Click the image to open in full size.


It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Jun 17, 2018, 11:55pm   #290
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM FX Weekly: Global economic calendar (June 11-15). Chart of the week- GBPCHF

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread
  • Bank of England policy is expected to hold the interest rates
  • ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, Portugal, 18-20 June
  • Data wise NZ GDP and EZ PMIs are in focus
  • OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22

A dovish ECB send the euro and bund yields lower, flip side hawkish Fed failed to produce a bullish break to the tradable dollar index (KTM: USDX) and the US 10TY well anchored below 3.00%. On Friday NY trade commodities were banged as the volatility back to the diver seat. Trade concerns between US and China are back to the center stage again, and we expect it will remain the key driver over the coming weeks.

Overall, EURUSD lost 1.50% and the dollar index (USDX) rose 1.60% in the past week.

Economic events:

In this week, NZ GDP, EZ PMIs, and Canada inflation are the key risk economic events lined up accompanied by G10 central bank meetings, SNB Monetary Policy meeting and BOE Monetary policy summary. Addition to these, we have BOJ and RBA minutes scheduled (Wed).

In Europe, following last week’s ECB dovish meeting, traders remain focus to the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, Portugal, 18-20 June and EZ PMIs.

NZ Q1 GDP: We expect the near-term growth to remain quiet. Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.5% tad below Q4 2017 of 0.6% led by Service industries grow 1.0%.

The economy expanded 0.6 percent in the December 2017 quarter, the second quarter in a row it rose 0.6 percent, according to Stats NZ. The better than expected economy health reading could boost the kiwi dollar above 0.7000.

OPEC meeting: Brent oil continued to retrace last week lost 4.50%. We expect Russia and Saudi Arabia will be titled of production increases. The price reached its A-B-C corrective pattern target whereas we still believe further retracement to 71.70$ and 70.70$ levels.


Click the image to open in full size.

Monetary Policy outcomes:

Thu, Bank of England (GBP): The BOE is expected to hold the interest rates unchanged. We are more focusing on the August meeting.

Thu, SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF): The SNB is likely to hold the interest rates. Following ECB’s dovish meeting we expect the SNB will deliver neutral to dovish communication.

Chart of the week: GBPCHF

Since early June the cross has been locked between 1.3270 and 1.3120. The daily studies RSI and oscillator are remaining bullish helped the cross to settle above 20MA for the first time since April. A bullish break above the range could open to 1.3330 initially above this, 1.3450 and 1.3490 are the open targets with supports at 1.3120 and 1.3050. The flip side, any break below 1.3050 could open towards 1.3000, 1.2920 and 1.2850 levels.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Jun 20, 2018, 12:27am   #291
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM FX: Risk aversion favors the Yen. USDJPY and AUDJPY insights

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread JPY crosses are under immense pressure as US-China Trade Tensions detreated the traders’ confidence. As we pointed out Monday’s article “Trade concerns between US and China are back to the center stage again, and we expect it remains the key driver over the coming weeks.”

In such circumstances, JPY performs better than CHF and Gold. Flipside AUD to underperform. Interestingly the kiwi dollar remained neutral, and the US dollar could keep the momentum.

Especially the Aussie dollar has been hitting hard since June 06 high. Trade Tensions, policy divergence (Fed and RBA) and melting copper are the factors adding pressure to the commodity currency AUD.

Click the image to open in full size.

Since mid-March, the cross AUDJPY has been locked between 80.50-84.55. On Tuesday session the cross fell as far as 80.60 tested and held the lower-end of the range and recovered to 81.20. At higher time frames, the charts are appearing more bearish.

Chart: https://twitter.com/KeytoMarkets/sta...02738577956869

The cross spotted with a bearish H&S pattern pointing to the neckline(monthly) finds between 73.30-72.00. This view will be strengthened if the price close below the 61.8% fib reaction finds at 79.80 (73.30-90.30 rally).

Click the image to open in full size.

As shown on the weekly chart (above), the pattern is pointing to 74.50. Overall, breaks below 61.8% could open to 76.50, 74.50 and 73.30 in the Q2 2018.

USDJPY was falling as far as 109.55 its 50.0% fib reaction (108.10-110.90 rally) and closed at 110.00. Intraday support at 109.70-109.50 below these 109.20 its 100EA exists. Resistances seems to be at 110.30 and 111.00. The daily study RSI has been propelling down on top of it the oscillator is remaining bearish.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 6:21am   #292
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM FX Dialy: Will the GBPUSD hold the fib reactions?

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread In the European session, focus today will be on the BOE policy meeting. Following clear hawkish Fed and a dovish ECB the pound traders are sitting sidelines ahead of Thursday BOE policy meeting. The BOE is expected to hold the interest rate unchanged will vote by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. We are more focusing on the August meeting.

The economic data since May has been mixed and hasn’t given a clear picture to the MPC to hike rates. Recent Office of the National Statistic (ONS) report suggests the fall in wage growth eases the August rate hike conviction rate. Moreover, average weekly pay including bonuses dipped by 0.1% to 2.5% while earnings excluded bonuses dipped by 0.1% to 2.8%, for the period, February to April 2018.

Dropping factory: The cable has witnessed another round of selling at 23.6% fib.

Before retracing to a five-month low, the price traced out a medium-term price top near 1.4345-1.4375 between Jan-Apr 2018 via the formation of a double top pattern. The recent shift in the sentiment rallied to 1.3470 its 23.6% fib reaction but attracted selling interest with supports at 1.3140 its 50.0% fib reaction of the Oct 2016-Apr 2018 rally. Below here, the focus will move down to 1.3060 its 100MA (Weekly), and the psychological support exists at 1.3000.
The recent short-term rallies (1.3200-1.3470 rally) should be considered counter-trend with a lower highs format. The near-term resistance moved down from 1.3710 to 1.3470 levels with stable support spread between 1.3060-1.3000 levels. The daily study, RSI has been making higher low though the price is drifting like a dead weight in the sky.
Probably we are going to trade between 1.3220-1.3130 before BOE. The daily studies on our favorite intraday charts (H1 and H4)are oversold. Supports are at 1.3130-1.3100 below this 1.3060, and 1.3000 exists. Resistance seems to be at 1.3230, well settles above Wednesday high could open to 1.3275 and 1.3300.

Forecast: Based on the given technical parameters we believe the cable offers limited downside risk. The risk-reward favors buying at 1.3100 with sl below 1.3000 targets 1.3220 and 1.3300 at the end of the day.

Click the image to open in full size.

What if BOE follows ECB language?

Eventually, we are going to test the 61.8% fib reaction finds at 1.2800 and the four-year descending trendline finds at 1.2770.

Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 7:12am   #293
 
KeyToMarketsUK's Avatar
Joined Mar 2017
KTM FX daily: Data review. Focus on EURUSD range

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The dollar index performance is mixed against the major traded currencies. As a result, the crosses AUDUSD and NZDUSD tested and held the parallel support zone, turning to majors EURUSD, and GBPUSD did the same.

AUDUSD support zone: 0.7370-0.7330
NZDUSD support zone: 0.6820-0.6770
EURUSD support zone: 1.1500-1.1450
GBPUSD support zone: 1.3100-1.3050

RBA June meeting minutes revealed, “The Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”

ECB President Draghi said, “we will remain patient in determining the timing of the first-rate rise and will take a gradual approach to adjusting policy thereafter”

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that May housing starts rose by 5.0% to an annual rate of 1.30M

New Zealand March 2018 GDP rose 0.5% lower than the May RBNZ MPS forecast.

The BOE keeps the interest rates unchanged. GBPSUD rose more than 100 pips post the policy announcement.

As we note in our earlier article, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and NZDUSD are well manages to hold the support zone. For trading majors EURUSD and GBPSUD favor upside risk and the NZDUSD well bid above 0.6900.

Read: GBPUSD trade
http://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/blo...fib-reactions/

EURUSD: Since Tuesday the major EURUSD has been consolidating in a tight range of 150 pips, between 1.1650-1.1500. A well settles above 1.1650 could open to 1.1690-1.1710. On top of it, a daily close above 1.1710 could boost further to 1.1850 last week’s high. Flipside supports are at 1.1590, 1.1530 and 1.1500. Q2 range remains between 1.1450-1.1850 with an additional support at 1.1390.


Click the image to open in full size.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

Have a question? Let us help!

A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
KeyToMarketsUK is offline Broker   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A Key Reason Interest Rates Will Remain Low & Markets High Verified Investing Stocks 1 Jul 18, 2016 1:47pm
Options Broker All key Markets (UK Based) The Baptist Brokerages 13 Jan 22, 2013 2:15pm
'Featured Discussions' - Do You Use It? timsk T2W Feedback & Announcements 33 Oct 8, 2009 12:38pm

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)