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Old Nov 8, 2017, 3:55am   #153
 
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FX Technical overview

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURUSD: Post ECB meeting the EURUSD price action remains quiet between 1.1570 and 1.1690. It has been making lower lows and lower highs and trading below 100MAs. We are watching for 1.1460 it’s 100.0 fe/ the classic H&S pattern target and 1.1430 it’s 38.2% ( Jan-Sep rally) fib reaction. The medium-term support finds at 1.1245 it’s 200DMA and 1.1200 20MA (monthly). Parallel support finds at 1.1530-1.1500.

GBPUSD: Near-term trading range remains between 1.3340 and 1.3000. Supply zone remains between 1.3320-1.3340 until remains likely to breach the lower end of the pattern.
Fib reactions to watch: 38.2%@ 1.30, 50.0%@ 1.2820 and 61.8%@1.2625 (Mid- Jan to Sep high)
Resistance: 1.3170, 1.3230 and 1.3320. Weekly pivotal seems at 1.3220

EURGBP: Near-term price action remains between 0.8950 and 0.8700. A daily close below could confirm the lower high pattern, aiming at 0.8470 and 0.8300 levels.
This week economic calendar is empty except UK IP. We focus on Brexit headlines.
Resistances are 0.8850, 0.8900 and 0.8950. We believe this week selling will be soft.

AUDUSD: Post RBA policy settings, the cross spotted with a bearish H&S pattern on the H1 and H4 charts. Initial supports finds at 0.7620 below this 0.7590 its 20MA (month) exists. Fails to hold the initial support focus shifts to the parallel support finds at 0.7530 coincides with 100MA (weekly). The daily ABC pattern aiming at 0.7510 coincides with the earlier breakout level in mid- May. By considering the daily RSI at oversold levels we forecast a corrective pullback looms. Selling on a rise favors the trend.

NZDUSD: Focus remains on RBNZ policy meeting (Thu). Consolidating between 0.6880 and 0.6970 it’s 20DMA, above this 0.70000-0.7030 exists, a potential resistance zone. The selling pressure accelerates if slips below 0.6860 to-retest 0.6820-0.6800. The cross has a parallel support finds at 0.6815/0.6800 below this 0.6750/0.6740 it’s 161.8 fe exists. The medium-term support finds at 0.6660 it’s 61.8$ fib reaction (0.6100-0.7550 rally). We are the buyer in the dip.

AUDNZD: Recent price action offers further legroom. A move below 1.10 needed to forecast 1.0830. It’s 50dma finds at 1.0280. Resistance seems at 1.1120 and 1.1170. The daily RSI and oscillator remain bearish.

USDJPY: Continues to face selling pressure in 114.50 and support bids find at 113.50. But while 113/112.90 intact a range trading with a bullish bias.

USDCAD: Minor top seems between 1.2820-1.2830 above this could open to 1.2870. Multiple tops seem at 1.2910. Fails to break above the previous high could retrace further to 1.2600 earlier breakout level and 1.2540.

USDCHF: Trading range remains between 0.9940 and 1.0040. The daily RSI propelling down and the oscillator remain bearish. An upside break could open to 1.0080/1.0100 and 1.0130. Alternatively, a close below 0.9930 needed to forecast 0.9860 initially. We still believe an upside breakout is imminent.

Charts of the week: AUDNZD, NZDUSD and USDJPY

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Old Nov 9, 2017, 5:18am   #154
 
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EUR technical overview. EURCAD at big levels

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread EURCAD trading at big support levels. Past three-days trading range remains between 1.4735-1.4835. It has a parallel swing low mid-June and August 22nd, finds at 1.4725. The 50MA finds 1.4735 and 20WMA find at 1.4745. At higher time frames 200EMA(monthly) acting as a temporary support. The daily RSI sloping down and the Oscillator remain bearish. Fails to hold the swing support (below chart) focus shifts to its 200MA between 1.4685 and 1.4640.

Medium-term potential support finds at 1.4500-1.4440. Near-term bullish could expect if close a day above 1.4850.

Click the image to open in full size.

EURCAD spotted with an inverse H&S pattern on the weekly chart. While 1.4440 intact we forecast a bullish bias. Before retrace to 1.4735 it has rejected at the neckline.

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EURAUD: The same bullish pattern ( like EURCAD) we spotted here as well. It failed to close above the neckline and changed the direction. Risk to this cross lies in the longer term chart. We wouldn’t fade this on the assumption that we are forming a right-hand shoulder on the monthly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

EURNZD: We advised a bearish trade with Sl 1.7060 targets 1.6850, 1.6800 and 1.6750. The cross fell as low as 1.6625 today, it’s 50MA finds at 1.6580. The daily RSI propelling down and the oscillator remains bearish.

EURCHF: We spotted a bullish H&S pattern on the hourly chart. The pattern target aiming at 1.1630 but intermediate resistance seems at 1.1600 and 1.1620.

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Old Nov 9, 2017, 11:56pm   #155
 
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EURUSD lifted within the downtrend

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Euro is higher ranging from 0.15-0.60% across major currencies on Thursday. The European Commission (EC) raised its outlook for the EU. European equity indices were down after Nikkei triggered sell-off post lunch trade. Monday shifted to the safe heaven currencies JPY and CHF and EUR lost 0.20% against CHF. Gold rose 0.45% and Crude rose 0.6%.

According to the EC Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast, “The EA economy is on track to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year, with real GDP growth forecast at 2.2%. This is substantially higher than expected in spring (1.7%). The EU economy as a whole is also set to beat expectations with robust growth of 2.3% this year (up from 1.9% in spring)”.

The EC expects growth to continue in both the EA and in the EU at 2.1% in 2018 and at 1.9% in 2019 (Spring Forecast: 2018: 1.8% in the euro area, 1.9% in the EU).

On the labor market, conditions are set to benefit from the domestic demand-driven expansion, moderate wage growth, and structural reforms implemented in some Member States. Over the next two years, EA unemployment is set to decrease further to 8.5% in 2018 and 7.9% in 2019. In the EU, the unemployment rate is projected at 7.8% this year, 7.3% in 2018 and 7.0% in 2019.

On the inflation, it is expected to average 1.5% in the EA this year and is expected to dip to 1.4% in 2018 before climbing up to 1.6% in 2019.

Upcoming risk events:
GDP data (Tue) from Germany, Italy and EA. Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment and EA IP also set on Tuesday. EA Trade balance (Wed) and EA Final CPI y/y on Thursday.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

The weekly price action turns to green as I write, after three-weeks of consecutive losses. Before rebounds to 1.1655 the price has re-tested an interesting falling trendline but still trading below the broken neckline (below chart). Further dollar weakness could allow a minor extension within the falling channel.

Click the image to open in full size.

Thursday’s intraday chart spotted with an inverse H&S pattern (H1) and completed the pattern target. We forecast a buying trade on EURCHF as we spotted the same pattern.

Click the image to open in full size.

Trading resistances seems at 1.1660/1.1670, 1.1690/1.1700 and 1.1720. It’s 50MA seems at 1.1800. Next round of selling expected between 1.17/1.1730 levels.

We are watching for 1.1460 it’s 100.0 fe/ the classic H&S pattern target and 1.1430 it’s 38.2% ( Jan-Sep rally) fib reaction. The medium-term support finds at 1.1245 it’s 200DMA and 1.1200 20MA (monthly).

For EUR cross currency technical view please refer our yesterday's article.

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Old Nov 13, 2017, 12:21am   #156
 
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AUD technical overview. Chart of the week: AUDCAD

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread The AUDUSD has been holding 50MA (weekly) and remains in a narrow range. We continue to see the AUD underperformance even the commodity prices climbing higher. The key driver for the AUD in the medium term is definitely the central banks’ policies.

This week we focus in Australia October jobs data. Apart from the macro local data US CPI is the other key risk event we focus in. In the last week’s Monetary policy statement the RBA lowered the inflation projection, underlying inflation not expected to reach 2% until early 2019.

On the other side, the RBA Monetary policy statement said that “the Australian economy is expected to expand at a solid pace over the next couple of years, and labour market developments have been quite positive of late”. RBA also said, “Investment in the non-mining sector has been increasing”.

Today morning in Asia session RBA Deputy Governor Debelle speaks at the 2017 UBS Australasia Conference, in Sydney.

Debelle said Australian non-mining investment (in real terms) is currently around 17 percent higher than it was at Q1 2008. Growth in business investment in recent years has been in the services sector. The lower AUD has increased the tourism demand.

Data preview:

Aussie jobs data:

In the last week’s RBA Monetary policy statement, the central appears comfortable with the recent labor market conditions. RBA said, “Growth in employment has continued to outpace that of the working-age population”. Also said, “Forward-looking indicators of labour demand suggest that above-average employment growth will continue in coming quarter”.

We expect job creation will remain healthy and the unemployment rate likely to remain at 5.5%. Our focus mainly in wage growth. In the last week’s report, RBA said “Wage growth has been slow, averaging an annual rate of around 2 percent in recent quarter”.

In case of a modest pickup in wage growth the Aussie dollar likely to rebound before a final retracement.

FX overview

In the G10 currencies space, we continue to see the Aussie dollar underperformance. The technical picture for AUDUSD has not changed since three weeks. Full technical AUDUSD story available on our KTM blog.

Click the image to open in full size.

Chart of the week: AUDCAD. Sitting tad above the longer term trendline.

We shift our focus to AUDCAD as the recent oil strength likely to support the loonie at least in the near term. But the headline risk remains with the NAFTA negotiations. Next round of NAFTA negotiations resumed this week and we have Canada October CPI (Friday).

The cross has been trapped between 0.9670 it’s 200EMA(Month) and 0.9925. It’s 50MA(weekly) seems at 0.9950. The daily RSI is propelling down and the oscillator remains bearish. In case of a symmetrical triangle breach, we forecast 0.9500 is an open target (100.fe weekly).

Resistances: 0.9755, 0.9790/0.9800 and 0.9900/0.9915.

Supports: 0.9670, 0.9590 and 0.9500

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Old Nov 13, 2017, 1:58pm   #157
 
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Inflation & Employment Details To Offer Volatile Week Ahead

Hi There,

We're impressed with this thread and would like to share our fundamental forecast, hope you don't mind it.

Inflation & Employment Details To Offer Volatile Week Ahead

“Not everything that goes up can keep pleasing the Bulls forever.” The same happened with the US Dollar during last week when uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s optimistic tax-plan, coupled with lack of big releases, triggered the greenback’s profit-booking by registering the first weekly decline in previous four of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). With this, the EUR managed to post a weekly advance even after carrying fewer data-points but the GBP couldn’t enjoy upbeat British economics due to pessimism surrounding Theresa May’s future as UK PM and slower growth of Brexit talks. However, the same Geo-political threats, including the news from Saudi Arabia, helped the safe-havens, namely JPY, Gold and CHF, to remain positive at the end of the week.

Further, AUD, NZD and CAD also strengthened on a weekly basis, irrespective of the RBA’s not so hawkish tone, with RBNZ’s optimism and welcome figures from China while the Crude stretched its north-run to consecutive fifth week mainly because of growing support for an extension to global production-cut accord beyond March 2018.

Even with shorter list of economic data-points, last week offered volatile moves on Geo-political concerns which are still active and got the boost during weekend with Sunday Times’ news signaling 40 members of UK parliament stand ready to ink a letter of no confidence for the present occupant of the UK PM. Additionally, Saudi Arabia increased security of its Crude pipelines after one of the sources witnessed a blast. Hence, the Geo-political waves aren’t likely to soften anytime soon and may keep entertaining investors for the upcoming week.

Other than the political news, the economic calendar is also heavier for the week as it contains headline CPI from UK, US & Canada, Retail Sales from US & UK and Job numbers for Australia and Britain.

Let us discuss each of these fundamentals in detail.

US Inflation, A Key To Unlock Another Rate-Hike

Although uncertainty concerning the Trump’s much awaited tax-plan dragged the US Dollar down during last-week, December rate-hike woes aren’t still dead as the latest communication from one of the FOMC member favored another rate-lift in the upcoming month. Though, the Federal Reserve has always preferred weighing inflation as a strong indicator to base upon their monetary policy changes and hence Wednesday’s CPI will become crucial for all the USD Bulls who are still buying the currency.

During its latest release, the monthly figure for CPI registered a 0.5% growth and the YoY stat marked 2.2% increase compared to their respective priors of 0.4% & 1.9% while the Core CPI softened to 0.1% from 0.2% earlier on monthly basis but remained unchanged while looking at YoY figure of 1.7%. Concerning this week’s release, forecasts suggest 0.1% & 2.0% numbers for the CPI’s monthly & yearly horizon respectively whereas the Core CPI isn’t expected to change from 1.7% YoY but increase a bit on MoM to 0.2% mark.

Inflation isn’t only consumer-centric detail which is scheduled for release on Wednesday, the monthly update for Retail Sales is also out for declaration on the same day. Retail Sales also suggest absence of strong consumer sentiment as the headline figure might register 0.1% growth against 1.6% with the Core Retail Sales likely flashing 0.2% mark compared to 1.0% earlier.

In addition to the aforementioned top-tier stats, monthly releases of US PPI, Empire State Manufacturing, Philly Fed Manufacturing and Housing Market details are also up for release during the week. Starting with the PPI, the factory gate inflation gauge is expected to register 0.1% growth versus 0.4% prior on Tuesday while the Building Permits & Housing Starts, on Friday, could again portray the strength of US reality sector with the former likely posting 1.25M against 1.23M prior and the later is expected to make 1.19M mark versus 1.13M earlier.

Moving on, manufacturing indices, namely Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, are both bearing pessimistic expectations for their scheduled release of Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The Empire State Manufacturing Index may register 25.3 number versus 30.2 prior while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is likely to post 24.3 mark compared to 27.9 earlier.

On the political front, some of the Republicans have started taking their steps back from supporting the Trump’s tax plan in his absence and the Senate’s raw announcement to introduce a phased tax-rate cut is something investors might not like while the Mr. President’s failure to get any big good news from his Asian tour could hinder the USD’s up-moves. However, he seems cultivating a bit soft corner for the North Korea off-late as recent political news signals Donald Trump isn’t avoiding chances of a diplomatic talk with his North Korean counterpart which the former previously denied.

Hence, even if the consumer-centric details might not offer any big good news, USD buyers may have a chance to ignore soft numbers in light of hurricane effects and soothing tension with North Korea. Though, developments on tax-plan must not be missed.

UK & EU Economic Calendar Are Also Worth Observing

US isn’t the only major economy that’s likely to entertain investors during the week, the UK and EU also have some important data-points scheduled that can fuel market moves.

From the UK, Tuesday’s CPI, Wednesday’s Jobs Report and Thursday’s Retail Sales are the headline numbers that could help portray near-term GBP moves while Tuesday’s German & EU ZEW Economic Sentiment and EU Flash GDP may direct immediate EUR trend.

While UK CPI and Retail Sales are both expected to help the Pound recover some of its latest losses with 3.1% and 0.2% numbers against 3.0% and -0.8% respective priors, the employment details aren’t seem that upbeat. The Average Earnings might flash 2.1% mark versus 2.2% prior and the Claimant Count Change could register an increase of 2.4K from 1.7K while the Unemployment rate isn’t likely to change from 4.3%.

In case of EU release, the Flash GDP might not deviate from its 0.6% prior but the improvement in ZEW numbers can help the EUR. German ZEW Economic Sentiment bears the consensus of posting 19.8 mark compared to 17.6 earlier with the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment likely registering 29.3 stat against 26.7 prior.

In regards to the politics, the UK PM’s status is again in danger due to her inability to get required success in Brexit talks and also because many of her supporting law-makers’ resignations filed due to latest sex-scandals at the Britain. However, there seem lesser traumatic situation at EU that can help the regional currency.


Considering the BoE’s latest rate-hike, chances of strong consumer-centric details pushing the central bank towards another such action any time soon are less and hence any negatives from employment front, together with political pessimism, can keep weakening the Pound. Further, the EUR may a reason to stretch its recovery due to acceptable economic sentiment and less political noise compared to other major economies.


Technically, the 1.1560-55 continue being a strong near-term support for the EURUSD, breaking which it can drop to 1.1480 & 1.1450-45 with 1.1730 & 1.1800 acting as important upside resistances to watch. Moving on, GBPUSD’s sustained trading below 1.3100 could signal its downturn to 1.3030 & 1.2950 but 1.3230, the 1.3280 & 1.3330 seem crucial if the pair reverses towards north.

Canadian Consumer-Centric Details, Japanese GDP & AU Jobs Report Comes At Last

If traders aren’t fed up of aforementioned critical data-points, Tuesday’s Preliminary reading of Japan’s Q3 2017 GDP, Thursday’s AU Employment numbers and Friday’s Canadian will still be there to cater their needs.

Japan’s Prelim GDP might soften a bit to 0.4% from 0.6% prior but still is expected to register seventh straight quarter of gains and that’s what Shinzo Abe might keep praising to support the present policy of the nation, be it fiscal or monetary. Further, the Australian Employment Change is also expected to weaken a bit to 18.9K from 19.8K prior with no change likely in present Unemployment rate of 5.5%. Moreover, Canadian CPI might also disappoint recent buyers of the CAD with 0.1% mark against 0.2% prior.

With the present political turmoil likely to keep helping the JPY conquer soft GDP mark, the AUD and CAD may have lesser strengths to stretch their up-moves due to weaker economics.

On the technical front, USDJPY might not decline much unless breaking 112.80 support while its upside seems capped by 113.80 & 114.50. However, the AUDUSD has repeatedly failed to cross the 200-day SMA figure of 0.7700 and may drop to 0.7570 on the break of 0.7630 whereas USDCAD is likely bouncing back from 1.2680 support-line towards 1.2780 resistance-mark.
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Old Nov 14, 2017, 1:22am   #158
 
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EURUSD: Modest upside expected. General downtrend remains in play.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Euro extends the gains marginally after the EC raised its outlook for the EU last week. This week market participants focus on the ECB event. Four central banks chairs will speak on Tuesday at the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by the ECB. We mainly focus on Carney, Draghi and Yellen’s speeches. The event has presented trading opportunities on EURUSD,EURGBP, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

According to the European Commission (EC) Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast, “The EA economy is on track to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year, with real GDP growth forecast at 2.2%. This is substantially higher than expected in spring (1.7%). The EU economy as a whole is also set to beat expectations with robust growth of 2.3% this year (up from 1.9% in spring)”.

After the October dovish taper announcement, we expect Draghi likely to deliver a dovish tone again. In the EZ economy, ECB October meeting and last week’s EC strike a positive approach. In the October meeting, ECB sounds optimistic on the back of a continued EZ recovery especially in the 2H of this year. Draghi said “unabated growth momentum in the second half of this year”.

Data review:
  • Germany factory orders had increased +1.0% in Sep
  • Spain Service PMI posted 54.6 in October, down from 56.7 in September
  • France Service PMI posted 57.3 in October, up from 57.0 in September
  • Germany final Service PMI was at 54.7 in October, down from September’s six-month high of 55.6
  • EZ Final Eurozone Services was at 55.9 slightly up from flash estimate 54.9
  • Germany Sep IP was down by -1.6% vs +2.6%

Data preview:

Relatively light economic calendar data. We mainly focus on EA Final CPI Y/Y basis (Thu) .
Nov 14
EA GP Q/Q basis, forecast 0.6% vs 0.6%
EA IP, likely to narrow -0.6% vs 1.4%
Thu, Nov 16
EA final CPI Y/Y basis, forecast 1.6% vs 1.6%

TECHNICAL VIEW


Last week’s price action turned to green after three-weeks of consecutive losses. Before rebounds to 1.1678 the price has re-tested an interesting falling trendline but still trading below the broken neckline (below chart).

The Euro was in demand last week after the EC raised the EZ outlook. Besides increasing uncertainties about current tax reforms drag the USD slightly lower. Ahead of the Draghi and Yellen speech, and inflation readings from EA and US we expect EURUSD offers limited upside this week.

Further dollar weakness could allow a minor extension within the falling channel. It has a potential resistance zone seems between 1.1690 and 1.1730 above this it’s 50MA 1.1790 exists. The daily oscillator turns bullish.

In the medium term, we are still watching for 1.1460 it’s 100.0 fe/ the classic H&S pattern target and 1.1430 it’s 38.2% ( Jan-Sep rally) fib reaction. The medium-term support finds at 1.1245 it’s 200DMA and 1.1200 20MA (monthly).

Click the image to open in full size.

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Old Nov 15, 2017, 1:14am   #159
 
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Wednesday morning FX thoughts. GBPUSD and NZDUSD in focus.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Euro outperformed and NZD underperformed in the Wednesday session.

The Aussie dollar little strengthens after the NAB October data held steady at 8. The cross currency AUDNZD well supported after the NAB data on the other side weakens the kiwi dollar across the board. According to NZB, Business conditions hit an all new high in October.

The cross NZDUSD softened in late Asia session, but manages to hold the Oct low. Last week’s RBNZ policy statement was hawkish. Near-term price action remains between 0.6817-0.7000.

GDP data rose in Germany and EZ pushed the euro more than 1% fresh November high. Germany Gross domestic product up 0.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2017. GDP up by 0.6% in both euro area and EU +2.5% in both zones compared with the third quarter of 2016.

The pound was little changed after the CPI data. UK October CPI was 3.0% unchanged from Sept. Post the weak CPI data the initial reaction was to the South later rebounded against the soft USD. Ahead of today’s jobs data, we expect a trading range between 1.3230-1.3060. Weekly support finds at 1.3000.

US October PPI increased by 0.4%. But the dollar index softened added fuel to the Euro bulls.

What’s on today?

Asia: Japan prelim GP q/q basis, Australia wage price index q/q basis

Europe: UK jobs data

US: CPI readings and Retail sales

Chart of the day:

GBPUSD: Spotted with a symmetrical triangle.

Click the image to open in full size.

New Forecast: We are focusing on NZDUSD. Currently trading at the lower end of the trading range 0.6817 (May 11 low)-0.7040. We see a better risk-reward ratio. Recently NZD jumped twice after better jobs data and hawkish RBNZ tweaks. The daily oscillator already gave a bullish break, RSI will follow soon. The current NZDUSD trading scenario reminds us the AUDNZD back in Sep-Nov 2016.

Click the image to open in full size.

View: Limited downside risk.

Take profit: EURCAD

Last week we forecast a bullish reaction and the cross-reacted inline with our tunes. Further upside will available above 1.5060. Resistance seems between 1.5040-1.5060. Canada CPI (Fri)in focus. We advise taking profit action at the cmp 170 pips in hand.

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Old Nov 16, 2017, 2:40am   #160
 
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Aussie dollar spikes after mixed October employment report. AUDJPY 250MA in focus.

KeyToMarketsUK started this thread Aussie dollar spikes after mixed October employment report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today in Asia session.

Quick FX reactions: AUDNZD rose 0.45%, AUDJPY rose 0.20%, AUDUSD &AUDCAD rose 0.15% each, EURAUD down 0.25% and GBPAUD down 0.15%.

Summary:

Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.4 per cent
The labour force participation rate decreased 0.1 percent to 65.1 per cent
Employment increased 3700 m/m basis to 12,297,100
Unemployment decreased 8100m/m basis to 215,600

FX OVERVIEW:

AUDUSD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD are at big levels.

AUDJPY: It has re-tested the 100WEMA finds at 85.50 and a parallel support finds at 85.40. A move below 85.40 needed to retrace further to 85 and 84.50 initially. The daily RSI is nearly oversold at 29.90 but the oscillator remains bearish. A weekly close below the 18-month ascending trendline further retracement could expect to 83.50/83.20.

Post-jobs data the spikes fail at 250MA (below chart). Earlier in mid-April and mid-May the 250MA pushed the price higher. If this repeats we expect a rebound to 86.50/86.60.

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